By Sachiko Sakamaki and Anthony SpaethSept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party will try to end its leadership crisis this weekend by choosing a replacement for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, 11 days after he suddenly announced he would step down.
The contest pits Yasuo Fukuda, 71, a cabinet chief for two prime ministers, against Taro Aso, 67, a former foreign minister, in an election among LDP lawmakers and regional representatives. The victor will go before the Japanese parliament on Sept. 25 to be confirmed as leader hours after Abe, 53, formally resigns.
Analysts say Abe's resignation and the LDP's lack of preparation hurt the party's image. And the contest itself, in which Fukuda and Aso traveled together to detail their platforms to various groups, was almost devoid of substance.
"There was no debate on what needs to be changed," said Jun Iio, political science professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. "The LDP failed to turn their crisis into an opportunity."
Fukuda, who is the frontrunner after getting backing from powerful factions within the party, was especially vague about his vision for Japan, analysts said.
"If he has strong ideas on policies, I can't find them," said Yasunori Sone, professor of political science at Tokyo's Keio University.
"I don't think he has any agenda," Taro Kono, an LDP legislator in the lower house, said in an interview.
Chaotic Week
The election will cap an uncharacteristically chaotic week in Japanese politics, which Fukuda acknowledged in a speech on Sept. 19. "I wonder if there are many Japanese people who understand how this has come about," Fukuda said. "The question now is how do we turn this around."
Abe's demise began in July when the LDP, which has held power for all but 10 months since 1955, lost control of the upper house of parliament to opposition parties. Abe unexpectedly announced his resignation on Sept. 12, saying his government "was unable to gain the trust of the people."
The next day, he was hospitalized for exhaustion and stress-aggravated abdominal problems. Although he is still prime minister, he has been in a hospital since.
Aso was considered a likely successor to Abe until eight of the nine LDP factions -- excepting Aso's own -- threw their support behind Fukuda, saying they considered him a more "stable" candidate. Aso, analysts said, was too closely associated with Abe, and also was blamed for knowing of the prime minister's intention to quit and not telling other party members.
`Kept a Secret'
"We think he kept that fact a secret," LDP lawmaker Kozo Yamamoto said in an interview, "and used it to prepare for his own succession. The party was blinded and confusion took place."
Although Fukuda has served as cabinet chief for former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi and predecessor Yoshiro Mori, his political career is relatively short and his experience limited for an aspiring Japanese prime minister, analysts said.
He became a lower house member in 1990, after working for Cosmo Oil Co. for 17 years and working as a secretary for his father Takeo, who was prime minister from 1976 to 1978. He has no experience heading a ministry.
"Fukuda wants to be prime minister, but without any preparation," said Sone of Keio University. "He doesn't know much about Japanese politics. He doesn't even know many Diet members' names, which is dangerous."
Unfinished Business
The winner of the LDP's presidency will have to deal with unfinished business from the Abe administration, including an extension of Japan's naval operations in the Indian Ocean in support of the U.S. and allied troops in Afghanistan, which opposition parties are planning to block.
He will also need to shore up support for the LDP in the face of challenges from the opposition, which is pushing for an early general election.
A key issue in the next election will be how the government addresses some of the side effects of economic reforms launched by Koizumi from 2001 to 2006. By reducing public works projects and privatizing the national post office, Koizumi brought in fiscal discipline and an economic recovery led by the private sector.
Still, rural areas, which were dependent on construction projects, were hurt by those reforms. A backlash by rural voters helped the opposition defeat the LDP in the July upper house elections.
"People say the economy has recovered, but we don't really feel it," said Takushi Kita, 62, a former postmaster in Okayama Prefecture in western Japan. "There's no benefit for the rural people to support the LDP."
In the presidency race, both Fukuda and Aso said they'll continue Koizumi's reforms, but also help the countryside. Those sound like vague platitudes, said political science professor Iio.
"The question is whether the winner can regain trust from the public," he said. "If the situation gets more confused, an election this year could be the only breakthrough in the situation."
To contact the reporters on this story: Sachiko Sakamaki in Tokyo at Ssakamaki1@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: September 20, 2007 19:33 EDT
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