Initial predictions of landslide win over Aso tempered by reality
Sunday's win in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election was a bittersweet victory for former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda because the number of ballots cast for him was fewer than expected.
Fukuda garnered more than 60 percent of ballots from party Diet members and representatives of prefectural branches, but it was not the landslide win he and his aides initially predicted.
In competition for local ballots, Fukuda was closely trailed by former LDP Secretary General Taro Aso. Party factions' tight control over their members also worked against a bigger margin of victory for Fukuda.
The result revealed perception gaps between leading faction members who supported Fukuda, junior lawmakers and rank-and-file LDP members.
At a press conference after the election, Fukuda described the result in his signature ironic tone saying, "Initially, others said I was playing a numbers game with factions; the result proved it was not correct."
In the election, 527 valid ballots were cast, while one was ruled invalid.
Of valid votes, Fukuda garnered 330--254 from Diet members and 76 from prefectural branches.
The figure accounted for 62.6 percent. Since the Heisei period began in 1989, the figure was the fourth-highest in LDP presidential elections following 77.7 percent gained by Ryutaro Hashimoto in 1995, 68.1 percent by Keizo Obuchi in 1999 and 66.1 percent by outgoing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2006.
But the 330 figure was wide of the mark of what his aides had expected to garner, after they predicted at least 280 Diet member ballots plus at least 80 additional votes from prefectural branches.
LDP factions played prominent roles in Fukuda's party leadership campaign. Fukuda gained support from eight of nine factions in the party, except the 16-member Aso faction.
Using simple calculations, Fukuda could have garnered more than 300 ballots just from party Diet members.
However, Fukuda himself admitted things did not go as expected.
According to party sources, it seemed that a sizable number of members of the faction led by Yuji Tsushima, including Justice Minister Kunio Hatoyama, who was Aso's campaign chief, voted for Aso.
A senior Tsushima faction member admitted the voting disunity, saying "Each group has various reasons."
Fukuda and his aides used a faction led by Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura to ask other factions to dispatch members to manage Fukuda's election campaign office.
They asked members of other factions to submit letters of agreement for the job as a tactic to confirm that they really supported Fukuda.
As a result, about 280, or about 70 percent of LDP Diet members, signed up for jobs in Fukuda's office. Yet the election result indicates some actually voted for Aso.
Some LDP members said the tight controls had the reverse effect, instead causing antipathy among party lawmakers.
In addition, others in factions that supported Fukuda said a sizable number of the lawmakers changed their minds and voted for Aso because they felt uncomfortable supporting Fukuda, who is regarded as less conservative.
A junior Machimura faction member said, "Junior members of our faction have expressed displeasure toward Mr. Fukuda due to his support for equality between the sexes, [establishing] a state-run facility [to replace the religious Yasukuni Shrine] to honor war dead and improved ties with North Korea."
Concerning local ballots, Fukuda and his aides had feared the possibility of a similar scenario as in the 2001 LDP presidential race, when former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi won due to his extremely high popularity among the public.
They feared that Aso, who also enjoyed high popularity, would attract a large proportion of ballots from prefectural chapters, and the trend would affect Diet members' voting.
As a result, Fukuda's aides expressed relief that Fukuda had garnered the majority of votes from prefectural branches.
However, in results of primary votes held by some prefectural chapters, Fukuda gathered fewer votes than Aso in prefectures with large cities, such as Tokyo, Chiba, Kanagawa, Aichi and Osaka prefectures.
A representative of the LDP's Ehime prefectural chapter said: "Mr. Aso got a [larger than predicted] number of ballots. I want [the LDP executives to] consider why that happened."
A Tochigi prefectural chapter representative said, "There were [many] members who judged that Aso would be a better face of the party in the next House of Representatives election."
It is difficult to judge from the results of the presidential election whether Fukuda has been accepted as the LDP's face for the next general election.
Kohei Kawashima and Takaharu Yoshiyama
Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers
(Sep. 25, 2007)
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