Updated January 26, 2010 18:18:02
A municipal election in Japan has thrown American plans to reorganise its military forces in the Pacific, including its proposed buildup on Guam, into disarray.
Weekend elections in the town of Nago, on the Japanese island of Okinawa, were won in a bitter campaign against honouring a US-Japan deal that would see a Marine airbase relocated from Futenma to Nago.
The win almost certainly means mroe delays for Washington's plans to reorganise its forces in the Pacific.
Presenter: Corinne Podger
Speaker: Susumu Inamine, mayor-elect of Nago; Yukio Hatoyama, Japan's prime minister; Gavan McCormack, Japan defence analyst at the Australian National University; Gary Hiles, chief economist at the Guam Department of Labour
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PODGER: Nago is a tourist town in northern Okinawa - famous for its beaches and pineapple fields. But it's also home to US Marine Camp Schwab. Four years ago the previous US and Japanese administrations reached a deal to relocate the US Marine Corp's Futenma base to Camp Schwab. Since then, there's been a change of government in both Washington and Tokyo and there's escalating opposition on Okinawa to the US presence. Locals are angry at the pollution and noise that come with an airbase, and there's persistent anger following a series of high-profile rape cases involving US soldiers. In Nago, Susumu Inamine ran a vocal campaign against the relocation, and won.
INAMINE: I wish to deliver the voice of people to the nation and prefecture.
PODGER: I wish to deliver the voice of the people to the nation, Mr Inamine told his supporters at his post-election celebration.. It was a firm message to Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. In response, Mr Hatoyama has promised to find an alternative site to Nago for the Futenma facility, within four months.
HATOYAMA: As expressed before, the government will take responsibility and present a final decision by the end of May - starting from a clean sheet. We will definitely carry it out.
PODGER: Professor Gavan McCormack is a Japan defence analyst at the Australian National University. He says Mr Hatoyama may be hard-pressed to find an alternative to Nago within that timeframe.
MCCORMACK: Investigative groups are going around the country looking at alternative sites, but to find an alternative site and then to persuade the Pentagon that that site will serve all American military objectives by May - it's a very tough call.
PODGER: Professor McCormack says there are half a dozen potential alternatives for Futenma inside Japan. Another option that's been put forward is to ditch the idea of relocating Futenma within Japan altogether, and focus on Guam instead.
MCCORMACK: There's also the fact that the Marines themselves have been planning for a huge expansion of the Guam facility, and some Okinawan specialists on this matter suggest even that the American Pentagon plan is a plan that would make the Hinoko plan unnecessary because most of the Marine facilities are going to be withdrawn to Guam anyway.
PODGER: That's rung alarm bells in Guam, where there are already concerns about whether the health system, schools and infrastructure like ports and roads can cope with the US troops and facilities the buildup will involve. Gary Hiles is the chief economist at the Department of Labor.
HILES: That was proposed previously by the government of Japan, and the governor of Guam has indicated that Guam really can't handle a much larger expansion than is currently proposed.
PODGER: At the same time, the build-up is being looked to by Guam as a major new source of jobs and income. It's barely a week since the head of the US Joint Guam Project office, US Major General David Bice, said the transfer of 8-thousand US Marines from Okinawa to Guam would be delayed by two years to 2014 and both Tokyo and Washington have hinted even that deadline may not be kept. Gary Hiles says the election outcome in the Nago may further delay the Guam build-up holding up federal and private construction projects, and impacting on local jobs.
HILES: Certainly there's private investors that are planning for things such as worker housing and looking forward to getting some of these contracts for military construction activities that could be affected if there's a delay. So at the moment it's kind of a wait and see and we'll try to assess the situation and see how it plays out.
PODGER: But while another delay in the arrival of US military personnel on Guam has some downsides, there's a silver lining - a bit of extra time, Mr Hiles says, to get the facilities the troops will need on arrival, ready in time.
HILES: There's a lot of activities related to the infrastructure and the roads and the port, the educational system - the additional time and to secure funding and implement projects would be helpful.
PODGER: Whether or not Prime Minister Hatoyama can find an alternative to Nago for the Futenma airbase, either by May or, indeed, at all, Japan analyst Professor Gavan McCormack says Tokyo remains firmly committed to its multi-billion-dollar contribution towards the Guam facility.
MCCORMACK: There's no - or there's little - dispute in Japan as to the obligation entered into by the previous government to pay $US6 billion towards the expansion of Marine facilities on Guam. That, I think, is not in question. But what is in question is whether in addition to that $US6 billion, the Japanese government will proceed to construct a huge new Marine facility in Okinawa or indeed elsewhere in Japan. That's what at issue I think now.
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