January 25, 2010For the first time since 1998, a mayoral candidate advocating the relocation of U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to a site outside Okinawa Prefecture was chosen as the next mayor of the city of Nago.
The newest development has all but erased the possibility that the parties involved in the ongoing dispute will settle on Futenma's relocation to the Henoko district of Nago, as was previously agreed by the Japanese and U.S. governments. The Hatoyama government will now step up its search for an alternative relocation site, but the prospects are grim, and it remains unclear whether a resolution will be reached by the end of May.
"The voters expressed 13-years' worth of sentiment (since the 1997 referendum) in this election," mayor-elect Susumu Inamine said in front of some 300 cheering supporters on Sunday night after his victory was confirmed. "The people have spoken."
Candidates accepting of the Henoko relocation plan had won the past three mayoral elections, providing the national government with justification for the relocation. With Inamine's victory on Sunday, however, the rationale that the Henoko plan should be carried out because local Nago residents approve it, no longer holds.
The victory of Democratic of Party of Japan (DPJ)-endorsed Inamine signifies a victory for the Hatoyama government itself. Still, government officials have expressed mixed feelings over the election results.
"The current relocation plan is virtually 100 percent off the table now," says one senior Defense Ministry official, adding that the developments will likely affect Hatoyama's May resolution deadline. "A delay in the final decision will cause serious problems in Japan-U.S. relations."
If the government is to take the results of the Nago election to heart, it has no choice but to scrap the current plan of relocating Futenma to a site off the shores of Camp Schwab in Nago. At the same time, it will be no easy task to find an alternative site either within or outside Okinawa. Even if Japan were to find a replacement, it will be extremely difficult to settle the matter with the U.S., which is pushing for the implementation of the current Henoko plan, before the end of May.
In Tokyo on Sunday evening, Social Democratic Party (SDP) leader Mizuho Fukushima responded to the Nago election results, and reiterated her intention to continue advocating relocation to Guam. "The Henoko replacement facility plan should be eliminated as an option by the ruling coalition committee on Okinawa bases. I'd like to put my efforts into relocation outside the country."
Mikio Shimoji, the People's New Party's policy chief, said, "I'd like to engage in the process of selecting a relocation site on the premise that Henoko will not be a candidate."
"The prime minister should not immediately abandon the current plan," said Shigeru Ishiba, policy chief of the opposition Liberal Democratic Party. "He must promptly offer a realistic solution that maintains deterrence power and alleviates the burden on Okinawa, and seek the understanding of the U.S. and Okinawa."
In light of these circumstances, new potential relocation sites in Okinawa have emerged within the government, in spite of the Nago election results, which indicated a majority support the out-of-prefecture relocation option. One of them is an on-shore site at Camp Schwab -- as opposed to a site off its shores, an option that had once been discussed in the process leading up to the Japan-U.S. agreement. One Defense Ministry official said, "A facility in Henoko might be possible if it's not built in the ocean."
(Mainichi Japan) January 25, 2010
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