2010/04/15
A prime minister's promise carries weight, but the weight of his latest promise could prove unbearable for Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.
Hatoyama told U.S. President Barack Obama earlier this week of his resolve to settle the Futenma base issue by the end of May. He also asked for the president's cooperation.
In his Diet debates with opposition leaders at the end of March, Hatoyama hinted at a "plan in mind" about the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma.
The government was supposed to have come up with a plan by the end of March in the first place, but we have yet to see one. The sorry truth must be that the government still doesn't even know where to start.
Yet, Hatoyama gave his word to Japan's ally that the matter will be settled by the end of May. In making this promise, Hatoyama effectively sealed the "escape route" he would need to avoid taking political responsibility at home as well as abroad. He has driven himself into a corner.
Hatoyama told Obama during their informal 10-minute dinner meeting that "lightening Okinawa's burden is necessary for the sustained development of the Japan-U.S. alliance." We fully agree. But Hatoyama has little weight to throw around in handling the extremely challenging task of negotiating with Washington and coordinating various domestic interests.
Hatoyama seems to be exploring the possibility of keeping some of Futenma's functions in Okinawa Prefecture but relocating the base itself outside the prefecture. Given the time limit, we believe this is probably the only way to go.
Tokunoshima in Kagoshima Prefecture and the Marine infantry base at Camp Schwab in Nago, Okinawa Prefecture, have been named as possible relocation sites of Futenma's helicopter operations. But the government has been met with vehement opposition from local residents, and the chances of any realistic negotiations taking place in the near future are next to zero.
The prime minister has so far reiterated his intention to decide a plan upon winning the understanding of Washington and the local governments concerned. But Washington insists the current plan, agreed upon in 2006, is the best.
If Tokyo is to prevail upon Washington to change its mind, it is crucial to have the backing of local residents. Instead of repeating verbal promises, Hatoyama ought to roll up his sleeves and personally engage in "front-line" negotiations.
No community would ever welcome the presence of a military facility. In Tokunoshima, in fact, local mayors and assemblies have made their opposition quite clear, and a huge protest rally is scheduled for the weekend.
Tremendous power of persuasion is needed to get any community to agree to share the nation's security burden.
The late Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, who in 1996 made Washington agree to return the land occupied by the Futenma base to Japan, personally negotiated with then-U.S. Ambassador Walter Mondale and Okinawa Governor Masahide Ota.
Hatoyama has been in office for seven months now, but he has yet to visit Okinawa. He has met with the Okinawa governor only once.
Considering the time he has squandered so far, his repeated promise to "risk my life" rings hollow and false.
Since the election of an anti-base mayor in Nago in January, it has become extremely difficult to go along with the 2006 plan to relocate the Futenma base to Henoko in southeastern Nago.
Unless a new relocation site can be found, either the Futenma base will have to stay put or Tokyo will keep postponing any decision.
In either case, the credibility of the Hatoyama administration will be completely lost at home and abroad, and the administration may not survive.
Hatoyama has only a month and a half left.
--The Asahi Shimbun, April 14
Posts
