April 19, 2010Japan's government policy is in chaos and the ruling coalition is in disarray. The opposition is now crumbling and giving rise to a series of new political parties. With hopes for the new regime turning into disappointment, what do historians make of this state of affairs in which the nation's political future remains uncertain?
When I turned to Junji Banno, 72, professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo and an expert in Japanese constitutional history for his take on the current situation, he brought out an old, dark blue book with worn edges.
"Take a look at this," he said.
On the book's spine were the words "Taisho seikyokushi ron" (Theory of Taisho political history) in faded gold lettering. The author, Iichiro Tokutomi, is the great pre-war journalist also known as Soho Tokutomi and a number of other pen names. Putting aside a discussion on Tokutomi until later, first let us consider Banno's views on Japan's future under the leadership of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).
What Banno's analysis boils down to is that we have no choice but to "hit rock-bottom." The Hatoyama administration resembles the government of Shigenobu Okuma during the Taisho period, Banno says, but unlike the Okuma administration, there is no chance that the Hatoyama regime will spring back due to a war economy.
In his 1982 book, "Taisho seihen" (Taisho political upheaval), Banno wrote that "there was a huge gap between the popularity and the actual condition (of the Okuma Cabinet)," and that the administration was "remarkably lacking in fixed principles." It was popular because it emerged as a critical opponent of the constant shuffling of government by the bureaucracy and the perpetual ruling party Seiyukai (Friends of Constitutional Government), and also because it pledged to distribute handouts, thereby ingratiating itself with the public.
In 1914, immediately following the Siemens scandal -- a case of political corruption involving the Imperial Japanese Navy -- Aritomo Yamagata and other elder statesmen recommended minority party member Okuma to the position of prime minister after having repeatedly changed their minds, giving rise to a Cabinet that was not under the control of Seiyukai or other related parties.
At the time, Japan was on the verge of bankruptcy as a result of low tax income caused by a recession and the strain of foreign bonds that had funded Japanese efforts in the Russo-Japanese War a decade earlier. Heavy taxes of the war years were still in place, and the public's discontent had reached its peak.
Okuma had promised handouts as part of his "focus on the everyday lives" of the public. Soon after his Cabinet was formed, however, he came to contradict his earlier vows. He had called for military reduction, but when he stood at the head of government, he stepped up efforts to expand the military in an attempt to appease the army and navy. Today, we would call that a violation of his manifesto.
It was under such circumstances that World War I broke out. The Japanese economy flourished due to special wartime procurements, obscuring the government's inconsistencies. "Who rescued him (Okuma) from crisis?" the aforementioned journalist Tokutomi wrote in his book. "The German Kaiser himself." Indeed, Japan was allied with Britain, France and Russia in their fight against a common enemy, Germany.
Today, counting on war to give us a break is not an option. The world has globalized. Japan cannot be the third dog that swoops in and runs away with the bone as two other dogs fight over it, so to speak.
One hundred years ago, so-called Taisho democracy blossomed on a foundation provided by the wartime economy. However, this time around, Banno analyzes, there's no choice but to keep falling until we hit the lowest point possible, flat on our faces, and climb back out from there.
Japan's budget deficit index is worse than that of Greece -- where riots over the country's budget crisis continue -- and fears of tumbling government bonds are rising. State Minister for National Policy Yoshito Sengoku recently suggested a possible consumption tax hike, but Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is against it. What is being sought right now is a decision, not a discussion, and the government seems unable to provide it.
The Futenma relocation issue has also yet to be resolved. When Japanese media outlets vied with each other to be the first to report that a columnist for the U.S. daily newspaper Washington Post described Hatoyama as "loopy," some questioned the integrity of the Japanese media. While I can understand the criticism, to some extent, the DPJ deserves such contempt.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is far from being resurrected, and the new political parties are too small. Bureaucrats are intimidated and the media is deeply confused. How much further do we have to go before we hit rock-bottom?
"I don't know," said Banno. "This is the first time in the history of constitutional politics that we've seen such a state of affairs. I think it's only after we've persevered this and toughened up that we'll achieve true democracy." (By Takao Yamada, Expert Senior Writer)
(Mainichi Japan) April 19, 2010
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