By David PillingPublished: Mar 29, 2007
When Shinzo Abe, Japan's prime minister, addressed graduating cadets at the country's National Defence Academy this month he made clear they were entering the military at a time of transition.
Facing them, he said, were "various challenging problems" ranging from North Korea's nuclear development to "the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction". A commitment by Japan to playing a more active role in international affairs would also inevitably lead to further dispatches of troops and equipment to hot spots around the world.
The speech was the latest on a theme for Mr Abe, who has advocated a more assertive foreign policy for Japan since taking office last year and has upgraded the standing of Japan's defence ministry. It also came as Tokyo is rolling out a long list of defence bills to pay.
Japan is accelerating the deployment of its missile defence system as part of an elaborate Y1,000bn (£4bn, $8.5bn, €6.4bn) plan hatched with the US and is this week taking delivery of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 air defence missiles to be deployed north of Tokyo. More than 20 such devices have already been deployed in Kadena air base on the southern island of Okinawa, where most of the US's 50,000 troops in Japan are stationed.
The land-to-air missiles, designed to intercept incoming ballistic missiles, complement sea-to-air missiles being installed on Japanese Aegis destroyers.
Fumio Kyuma, head of the recently upgraded defence ministry, has urged accelerated deployment of the missile defence system, originally due for completion in 2011 "to ease fears among the general public".
Missile defence is just one of the big-ticket military items Japan must pay for. It is also in the process of replacing its ageing fleet of nearly 300 fighter jets, some of which went into service in 1971, either with US jets, at about $200m each, or the Eurofighter, which costs about £65m ($128m, €96m).
Then there is the bill of up to $6bn being footed by Japan for relocating US marines from Okinawa to Guam as part of a realignment of US troops in the region.
But those funding de-mands and Japan's enlarged military ambitions are also coming as Tokyo continues to hold to a rule capping military spending at 1 per cent of gross domestic product and is in fact cutting its defence budget.
The dichotomy has attracted the attention of none other than Thomas Schieffer, the US ambassador to Japan, who hinted to journalists recently that Japan was riding Washington's coat tails. "The US is spending over 4 per cent of GDP on national defence and part of that 4 per cent allows for the defence of Japan.
"We would hope that, as Japan goes forward, they would realise there are a lot of things that could be done out here that might bump them up against their unofficial 1 per cent cap," he said.
"There's a lot of things coming down the road that are going to make it very difficult for Japan to maintain the same level of spending and we would hope they would be able to spend more."
According to a draft budget agreed in December, defence spending for this fiscal year will be cut by a further 0.3 per cent to $40bn, the fifth year of decline.
Japan's defence establishment agency had asked for an increase. But the finance ministry insisted on further cuts, saying these could be achieved by dismantling parts of the force originally designed to repel the sort of land attack envisioned during the cold war.
Robert Dujarric, a defence expert at Temple University in Tokyo, says the US ambassador's call for more spending reflected thinking in Washington and could serve the Abe administration. "The conservatives probably like the US ambassador saying: 'I want youto spend more on defence'. "
But Japan's public is not ready to support greater spending on defence that has, since the war, largely been outsourced to the US, he says. "As long as you see the Americans are providing you with a credible umbrella, why spend more? There's no pressure from voters to do so."
In his speech to cadets, Mr Abe called for further strengthening of the "Japan-US alliance while steadily upgrading our country's national security platform".
But only if real doubts emerged about the US commitment to defend Japan would pressure build to breach the 1 per cent cap, Mr Dujarric said. There had, he added, been tentative signs of disenchantment in recent weeks, largely over Washington's perceived hastiness to strike a deal with Pyong-yang.
That has been interpreted by some conservatives as evidence that the US, obsessed with the Middle East, was not thoroughly engaged in north-east Asia.
Such disenchantment could, he said, add to pressure to breach the 1 per cent cap. But any hint that Japan wants to increase military spending could provoke hostility both from within Japan and from China and South Korea. "Politically," Mr Dujarric says, "I don't know if it's do-able."


