May 31, 2010When Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama met with Social Democratic Party (SDP) leader Mizuho Fukushima at his office on May 17 -- two weeks before he dismissed Fukushima from her Cabinet post and the SDP announced its withdrawal from the ruling coalition -- he was candid about failing to fulfill his campaign promise to relocate U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma "out of Okinawa Prefecture, at least."
"The U.S. says 'no,'" he said. "President Obama has been insisting on Henoko from the beginning."
Hatoyama was inching closer and closer to signing a bilateral agreement to relocate Futenma to the shores off Camp Schwab, the original plan that had been a point of major contention. "It can't be realized, with so much opposition from the local community," Fukushima argued. "This is the same thing that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito coalition government did."
Although Hatoyama cited the U.S. military's deterrence capabilities in light of unstable conditions in the East Asian region as the main reason for giving up on Futenma's relocation to a site outside Okinawa and outside Japan, the real reason, however, was Hatoyama's inability to propose a convincing alternative that could sway Obama's unwavering determination to stick with the existing plan.
In effect, this has been a declaration of defeat by a prime minister who, since his rise to power last September, had told those close to him that he "didn't want to be become like the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-Komeito coalition government, always pandering to the U.S." In an effort to maintain the coalition with an SDP growing increasingly resistant to the Henoko plan, Hatoyama offered such concessions as "the Henoko base will be constructed as a Self-Defense Force base," or that "relocation to an overseas location will be considered in the future," but to no avail. Fukushima decided she would stand by her position, and braced herself for the possibility of dismissal from the Cabinet.
The short discussion Hatoyama had with Obama at the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington -- during which Obama reminded Hatoyama that time was running out -- proved to be a turning point for the Japanese prime minister, who had been trying to pursue alternatives to the Henoko plan, including the partial relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps' helicopter unit at Futenma to Tokunoshima Island. Hatoyama's frustration with the matter was deepened by the 10-minute interaction, and he left senior secretary Tadakatsu Sano in Washington to search for a resolution.
A rare meeting between a prime minister's senior secretary and the State Department's number-two official, James B. Steinberg, took place the following day, on April 14. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, who is well-versed in Japanese affairs, was also present. Steinberg asked Sano for the Japanese government's understanding of the situation, and informed him that the U.S. saw no alternatives to the existing plan.
Sano reported back to Hatoyama upon his return to Japan. Government sources say Sano apologized, saying, "I'm sorry, the U.S. will only accept the existing plan." Hatoyama demanded an explanation. "That's what the Foreign and Defense ministries have been saying. That's different from what you said before."
The prime minister's right-hand men -- including Sano and Kiyoshi Sugawa, an expert researcher in the Cabinet Secretariat -- had believed there to be room for compromise regarding Futenma. Hatoyama, too, had pursued the Tokunoshima Island alternative. It was this misreading of the U.S. government's stance that led to the Japanese government's failure to reach a successful "May resolution" to the Futenma relocation issue.
(Mainichi Japan) May 31, 2010
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