May 29, 2010For the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama, which had stated repeatedly that the Japan-U.S. alliance was a cornerstone of its Asia policy, avoiding a situation that could be interpreted as the collapse of the bilateral alliance was of crucial importance. It is breathing sighs of relief over the success of its "strategic patience," now that a joint statement by the two governments on the Futenma relocation has been issued.
Richard Bush, a senior analyst at the Brookings Institute, says the U.S. government's patient deliberation on the issue is worthy of recognition. According to Bush, the U.S. government's discontentment had consistently been expressed by U.S. officials to their Japanese counterparts in private communications.
Sticking to its position that the existing relocation plan was optimal, the U.S. government pushed Japan to provide a realistic alternative if it wished to review the 1996 bilateral accord. When the Japanese government proved slow to propose alternatives, U.S. officials grew increasingly frustrated. The release of the joint statement without any details about the new base's exact location or construction methods was the biggest concession the U.S. government could possibly make.
Just like the Hatoyama administration finds itself stuck between Okinawa and the U.S., the U.S. government has been dealing not only with Japan, but also with pressure from Congress -- which oversees the federal budget -- to implement the existing relocation plan as outlined in the 1996 Japan-U.S. agreement. There loomed the very real possibility that funds for the relocation of U.S. Marines to Guam would be eliminated from the budget if the existing relocation plan were to be derailed.
This would mean that not only the relocation of Futenma, but the realignment of the entire Marine Corps in Okinawa would be called off, possibly resulting in the U.S. government's worst-case scenario: Futenma would remain where it currently is, leading anti-U.S. sentiment in Okinawa and calls for the complete withdrawal of U.S. military forces from the prefecture -- including Kadena Air Base, a crucial hub in times of emergency -- to soar.
The stipulation of Futenma's relocation to "the Camp Schwab Henoko-saki area and adjacent waters" in the latest joint statement allows the U.S. government to argue that the plan is a mere revision of the existing one. While the situation will remain unpredictable until late August, by which specific construction plans are expected to be finalized, for the time being the U.S. administration appears to have decided that it has averted disaster, at least in its handling of Congress.
(Mainichi Japan) May 29, 2010
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