By Koichi Akaza
In recent weeks, the air of Nagatacho, Tokyo--the nation's political nerve center--has been increasingly filled with speculation about whether the House of Representatives will be dissolved in the near future.
Former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, whose recent remarks and conduct have drawn a good deal of popular attention, was the first lawmaker to spark such speculation.
In his speech at a party organized by the Kanagawa prefectural chapter of the Liberal Democratic Party on April 7, Koizumi used a figure of speech referring to a possible lower house dissolution, saying, "I feel a certain wind is beginning to blow."
Any mention of "wind" can readily stir thoughts of a lower house dissolution and an ensuing general election. If one says, "A wind is beginning to blow," the insinuation is that the lower house could be dissolved anytime soon. When such a wind develops, each member of the lower house steps up preparations for an anticipated general election by returning to his or her home constituency.
Koizumi's "wind" remark may have given other legislators the impetus to act and speak by following in his footsteps. During the April 7 party, LDP Election Strategy Council Chairman Makoto Koga also surprised attendees when he declared: "Instead of saying, 'An election won't be held this year,' it's about time I started saying, '[A general election] could be held at any moment.'"
Following the LDP's massive defeat in last July's House of Councillors election that made the opposition Democratic Party of Japan the dominant force in the upper house, lawmakers' primary concern has been when the next lower house election will be held. This is main reason that remarks of this kind by prominent politicians such as Koizumi and Koga attract so much attention.
Spurred by its electoral victory, the DPJ has since been carried away by its own ambition to see the lower house dissolved and defeat the ruling coalition in a lower house election, thus taking over the reins of government.
This can be seen in DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa's aborted attempt to engineer a grand coalition between his party and the LDP-New Komeito alliance last autumn. Ozawa misjudged the sentiment prevailing among DPJ lawmakers. Faced with hard-core opposition from DPJ members over such a broad alliance, Ozawa eventually had to abandon his bid, despite reaching an accord with Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda during a series of talks on establishing an expanded ruling coalition.
Meanwhile, many LDP members remain cautious about a hasty dissolution of the lower house. Admittedly, some party legislators insisted on setting an early date, reflecting higher-than-anticipated popular support for Fukuda following the establishment of his new government to replace then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Cabinet in September.
However, this fervor has since subsided with a rapid decline in popular support for the Fukuda Cabinet in recent months.
Instead, there have been growing calls to wait for current members of that chamber to serve out their terms, or until just before their terms expire.
The terms of the lower house members elected in a 2005 election will expire in September 2009. Today, the LDP-New Komeito coalition holds more than two-thirds of seats in the lower house--the result of an overwhelming LDP victory in a general election in which Koizumi mercilessly forced a number of LDP members who opposed his postal reform drive to quit the party.
It is a forgone conclusion that the ruling coalition will be unable to retain a two-thirds majority in the lower house in the next general election.
This prediction has aroused calls among some LDP members to wait until lower house members' terms expire or until immediately prior to the terms' expiration.
In fact, Koga had, until very recently, continued to insist on waiting for the lower house members to serve out their terms if a general election is called.
His call was echoed by a majority of LDP members who thought it impossible for the ruling parties to dissolve the lower house in light of the circumstances. They also were convinced the ruling coalition's two-thirds majority in the lower house would help make headway in deliberations on the fiscal 2009 budget during next year's ordinary Diet session.
However, Koizumi's "wind" remark has encouraged many LDP leaders to speak in a manner that suggests the party is ready for a general election.
These politicians include LDP Secretary General Bunmei Ibuki. In a lecture held in Nara Prefecture on Saturday, he said: "One option [for Fukuda] might be to dissolve the lower house by examining the optimum time to do so.
"If the ruling parties win a majority [in the lower house], it means the DPJ will be unable to take power. In that event, some DPJ members who don't favor party President Ozawa's approach may take actions [to split the opposition party]."
Another senior LDP member has commented on Ibuki's remark, saying: "Although the Cabinet's approval rating remains low, the LDP enjoys high popular support. If we work really hard, we'll be able to win a lower house election."
Among political circles, however, these remarks have not necessarily been taken at face value. Many lawmakers regard these seemingly aggressive comments as an attempt by the LDP's top cadre to pull party members together. The LDP leadership is believed to fear that the low approval rating for Fukuda's Cabinet may lead them to believe the lower house will not be dissolved in the immediate future, thus letting down their guard in the face of a possible general election.
All in all, it's not too clear whether Koizumi's "wind" is truly beginning to blow. This makes lawmakers extremely sensitive to the slightest change in the current political climate.
This has given rise to speculation that if winds presaging a lower house dissolution start to blow, Fukuda's administration may suffer a fate similar to that of former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori's Cabinet.
In light of its low approval rating, Mori's Cabinet had to resign prior to an upper house election in July 2001. Mori's decision to quit reflected growing concerns among LDP members that the party could not do well in the election if Mori stayed on as leader.
Mori was subsequently replaced by Koizumi as prime minister. Koizumi captured the hearts and minds of voters with what amounted to a "Koizumi boom." His exceedingly high popularity earned the LDP a massive win in the 2001 upper house election.
The present speculation surrounding the fate of the Fukuda government is based on reflections of these 2001 political events.
LDP members who fuel such speculation want Fukuda's Cabinet to step down if its low support rating continues. These members are hopeful of fighting the next lower house election under a new prime minister.
Speculation also is circulating that if Fukuda dissolves the lower house at his own initiative, he will have to notch up several diplomatic accomplishments, including a successful conclusion to the Group of Eight summit meeting in Toyakocho, Hokkaido, in July. This is absolutely essential if Fukuda's administration is to boost its popularity, according to some observers.
Each political leader harbors his own theory on how the current political situation will unfold.
How will the winds of lower house dissolution blow? This question likely will continue to make political observers watchful to see which direction the winds will take.
Akaza is political news editor of The Yomiuri Shimbun.
(Apr. 23, 2008)
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