'Rejected lover' Japan needs to become more independent of U.S.

January 21, 2009

The world has never awaited the inauguration of a new leader with so much expectation. Barack Obama has assumed the role of president of the United States, but for Japan, there are strong fears that its position as America's "heart," so to speak, will be snatched away by China.

The gloomy predictions will likely come true. Japanese diplomacy will take a debilitating "Obama shock," and it will be remembered historically as the turning point in the alliance between Japan and the U.S.

At this point, I'd like to pass on a story told to me by an acquaintance who was set to join the Asia diplomacy team for the new U.S. administration.

Last March, during the presidential candidate nomination race, the two Democratic camps held a convention of 40 top diplomatic staff at a Florida hotel. Their goal was to draw up an integrated foreign policy, and, during the several-day convention, the recurring themes were China, Russia and India, focusing on their ability to affect global order. Of Japan, it was only reportedly discussed in the context of Chinese policy matters.

By this, I have no intention of concluding that the U.S. is slighting Japan, a major ally. However, the importance that the U.S. attaches to Japan must be considered relatively in U.S. global strategy.

Until last spring, there was a continuous stream of diplomats and foreign leaders visiting the White House, and we could start visualizing the Japan-U.S. relationship. It's as though America is an attractive man, catching the eye of the whole world. Around this man is a host of women, from the beautiful but hard-to-get, to the crazy stalker type. This guy has many girlfriends -- allied nations -- with Japan as the earnest and devoted one, who stays faithful as long as he whispers how special she is every once in a while.

But this is no laughing matter. Last October, the U.S. struck North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, despite Japan's entreaties and Bush's promise not to forget the abduction issue.

Despite that, Japan is still chanting its intention to strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance like some kind of mantra.

As Obama's popularity looks set to hit an all-time high, Japan's jealousy looks likely to grow. Paradoxically, the international community's high expectations for Obama reflect their feeling of the U.S. huge power under the Bush administration, and those heralding the end of U.S. domination and the dawn of a multipolar global age may not be entirely correct.

It's more accurate to say that presently, the U.S. is still the current world superpower, with Europe and Russia, China, India and so on developing as budding "power centers." The country with the potential to reach the same level as the U.S. in terms of power is China.

As an authority on U.S. foreign policy, President of the Council on Foreign Relations Richard Haass pointed out in the New Year's edition of Newsweek, "The single most important challenge for the new administration -- one with the potential to determine the character of the 21st century -- is China and U.S.-China relations." From the global recession to Iranian and North Korea nuclear issues to the energy crisis, the U.S. will need Chinese cooperation or face serious difficulties in bringing them to a resolution.

"The era of Japan's special role in U.S. foreign policy under the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty is over," says Naoki Tanaka, president of the Center for International Public Policy Studies.

Thanks to the U.S. alliance, Japan became the world's second-biggest economic power following World War II; but its excessive reliance on the U.S. has meant that Japan has been unable to convert its economic strength into political clout and diplomatic power. As the end of the U.S.-centric world begins, Japan's standing in the international community will continue to drop if it continues to rely on its ties with the U.S.

Japan needs to adopt a path that will allow it not only to maintain its alliance with the U.S., but also enable it to take a more proactive and diverse diplomatic strategy toward Asia and through international organizations. It is indispensable for Japan to work out a strategy of getting involved in a possible world order dominated by the U.S. and China while securing its national interests.

For example, Japan could seek to expand its influence on the U.S. and China by taking the initiative in establishing regular summit meetings between the three countries and acting more decisively in its strongest areas -- the environment, energy, and Africa. (By Toshihiko Kasahara, Foreign News Department)

(Mainichi Japan) January 21, 2009