Aimed at China?

Anastasia Kapetas 22-Aug-2007

Over the next few years Guam will metamorphose from a sleepy sun-soaked supply base to a pumped up forward operating zone of American power projection. But many in the US military are reluctant to characterise this as an arms build-up.

“Arms build-up? I wouldn’t use that language, ” said Air Force Maj. David Griesmer from Pacific command in Aviation Week.

Richard Halloran, former New York Times correspondent and now adjunct professor at Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii, agrees that if there is any nation building up it is China.

“The Chinese are really building up in two areas. They are focused primarily on submarines … and long range fighters over long range bombers. They are building a thick defence that will go out from the Chinese shore about 1,800 miles. Which if you draw a line down the map runs you right smack through the middle of Guam.

“A senior air force officer in Japan told me recently that ‘[the US] has got to pay more attention to what the Chinese are doing – they are building all kinds of systems, not just the nuclear missiles, but all kinds of short range missiles, cruise missiles, air to air missiles, surface to air missiles. ’”

But Halloran says that while the Chinese military is alarming Washington, strategic policy in the Pacific as a whole has still yet to capture the sustained attention of a Middle East obsessed Administration. Even senior US military officials working on the most important alliance issues in Japan often can’t get Washington’s ear.

There doesn’t seem to be a comprehensive strategic vision for the Asia Pacific or what America should be doing there as a whole, according to Halloran. Washington’s attention is defined by managing China’s rise – beneath that there is either confusion or disinterest.

For Chalmers Johnson, author of Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic and professor emeritus of the University of California, Guam has received its capital injection because the US is running out of basing options in the region.

Johnson says “The High Command everywhere, but also in the Pacific, has begun to realise that the most widespread political sentiment today is loathing of the US. That’s bad news for the American base structure – the 737 American military bases in other people’s countries. They now understand that they could get thrown out of a lot of places. ” Take the downsizing of US military bases on Okinawa. Both Halloran and Johnson agree that relieving the friction between Marines and locals is very much part of the story.

The fact that Japan is picking up 60 per cent of the relocation bill speaks for itself, according to Johnson, “This is one of the most amazing achievements of American imperialism is to have gotten the Japanese government to move American troops and their families to Guam and to build houses for them. It is an imperialist coup of breathtaking proportions.

“Both sides detest each other – you could never use any other word. The Okinawans’ hatred is particularly fuelled by the ongoing scandal of sexually violent crimes against Okinawan women –two charges per month lead to court martial. This is significant in a culture like Japan where women would not normally come forward, ” says Johnson.

“Recasting the US military presence in Japan involved the US using every bit of leverage they had to get the Japanese to pay for the relocation to Guam … prima facie evidence that the Japanese would do almost anything to get rid of them. “It is still very controversial in Japan – the public doesn’t like paying for it, and the change in parties may reverberate through this.

“In fact the sort of thing that has just happened in Japan is the sort of thing that is scaring them to death: the loss of the recent upper house election by [Prime Minister] Shinzo Abe, and the replacement of the LDP with a Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) majority. And Ichiro Ozawa, the leader of the DPJ, stated that he does not support war in Afghanistan, that he will not renew the joint agreement in which Japan supplies fuel and ammunition for ships patrolling in the Indian Ocean, that this is a private war started by George W. Bush and none of Japan’s business, is quite alarming to the American world view.

“If I was the Americans, I would not start counting my money just yet. ”

As a corollary, argues Johnson, Guam is the Pentagon’s answer to lessen their dependency on the vicissitudes of Japanese politics.

And in any case, the Guam project represents the end of an era.

“Gone are the days when America is going to build a big base in somebody else’s country, run up an American flag over it - that ain’t gonna happen, ” says Halloran.

He argues that informal basing rights, like the US has with Singapore, are the way of the future. “There’s no defence treaty with Singapore, there’s various memoranda, that sort of thing, but one of the things that the Navy found out when we lost Subic Bay was that you could take an aircraft carrier into Singapore and get the mechanics to fix it in a technically first rate fashion, but also probably cheaper. If you take all the costs of maintaining a base and all of the costs of its infrastructure with it - the Americans don’t do that anymore. They would rather buy services and maintain a very low profile.

Johnson agrees that the trend is to cut down on the multi billion dollar mega-bases that make up America’s global garrison. Such as Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Ramstein Airbase in Germany, Aviano Air Base in Italy. But he is sceptical of the so-called outsourced “lily pad” theory. All candidates for lily pad bases are either ambivalent about the US or lack the capacity, even Australia. Meanwhile the American footprint remains the same.

“It turns out that any Pentagon plans for Australia get vetoed by the National Security Agency and the CIA because what they want out of Australia more than military bases is to continue with espionage sig int [signal intelligence] that our global communications network just depends on. ”

While Guam may offer flexibility and a minimum of political blowback, the other issue is that Guam seems to present a wonderfully low collateral target to a potential aggressor, something that the Chamoru nation on Guam are understandably concerned about.

“I would assume that within the Chinese general staff, thinking of long range contingencies you are going to have some plotting and missile sighting on Guam, just as you do on Okinawa, ” says Johnson.

“That is probably a sound judgement on the part of the Chamoru people, ” agrees Halloran. Guam is well in range of Chinese intermediate ballistic missiles.

“We in Hawaii pay very careful attention to who has missiles in Asia. I live 18 miles from Pearl Harbour - everyone here is very aware of the idea of surprise attack.

“And Guam is the same. The obvious next question is can you do anything to protect those people? In a physical sense, no, probably not. In a military sense yes, and that’s where deterrence comes in. ”

Deterrence is not just a matter of comparing hardware – it has a diplomatic component too.

“What many US military commanders do is go to China, out of the public eye [and without] beating their chests, to warn the Chinese not to test us. I know from first hand that this is very high up on the list of worries from senior military people - that the Chinese are going to miscalculate. ”

Halloran says there have been some hopeful developments in US-China military diplomacy. A PACOM/PLAN hotline is due to go into operation some time this year. One of the most senior officials to pass through China recently was Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Marine General. Pace announced that the US had conducted training with some Chinese teams and that there also may be more joint operations in September.

For Guam this is good news, as the classic tools of deterrence are its only real defence.

America's Pacific build-up

Ben Bohane 22-Aug-2007

Anderson Airbase, Guam

The flags were at half-mast when I landed in Guam on the red-eye from Manila. Another Micronesian soldier has died in Iraq, the taxi driver tells me. For the next three weeks that I was on the island, the flags remained at half-mast; a Micronesian soldier was killed in Iraq every week I was there.

From Guam and the Marianas to Yap, Chuuk, Pohnpei, Palau and the Marshalls, to American Samoa (in Polynesia), islanders serving with US forces are paying a price that touches every community in these small island chains. Dozens from the region have died so far. Despite the casualties, however, there is still a pervading sense of loyalty for the US among islanders throughout Micronesia.

Guam is US territory, taken from the Spanish in 1898 in the first flush of the US’s empire building in the Pacific. Along with the other islands in the Marianas archipelago, the island’s proximity to north Asia makes it of particular strategic importance. In World War II Guam was known as “the warehouse of the Pacific”, because of the multitude of stores that rolled through Navy Base Guam. It was from another island in the Marianas, Tinian, that the Enola Gay superfortress took off to drop its atomic payload over Hiroshima and Nagasaki. During Vietnam, it was the leap off point for B52 bombers on runs over Vietnam and a supply base for all the services.

Today Guam serves US forces deployed throughout the Middle East as well as Asia and the Pacific. However, the base is beginning to move from “supply” to “combat ready”. Guam is set to become the US military’s main forward operating base in the Asia Pacific region and a key component of the US Pacific Command, the largest of all US military theatres, headquartered in Hawaii. Soon, this little island – “the aircraft carrier on land” or the “USS Guam” as the Lieutenant Governor of Guam, Mike Cruz, half-jokes – is going to be seriously beefed up.

Washington has outlined plans for a US$15 billion injection into Guam, relocating 8,000 Marines from Okinawa and their families, upgrades of existing airforce and naval facilities, infrastructure for the island and a missile defence shield with crew. More everything: B52 bombers, jet fighters, nuclear submarines fleets and aircraft carrier facilities. Between 40,000 and 60,000 people are expected to come to Guam in the years leading up to 2014 when completion of various military and civilian projects is expected on this Pacific fortress. This will represent around one third of the 170,000 people who live there today.

In recent months the US government has sent signals that it intends to boost its influence throughout the Pacific region after admitting to decades of neglect. In early May, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice hosted a “Pacific Islands Conference of Leaders” in Washington. And in February, Vice President Dick Cheney stopped-over on his tour, which led to the signing of the trilateral defence agreement between Japan, Australia and the US, proclaiming that although Guam was small, “it has tremendous importance to the peace and security of the world. ”

“Guam continues to grow in strategic importance, ” he said to a crowd of 2,000 service personnel. “By positioning our forces here, the United States can move quickly and effectively to protect our friends, to defend our interests, and bring relief in times of emergency, to keep the sea lanes open to commerce and closed to terrorists. ”

Adding to the superlatives being bestowed on Guam, the US Assistant Secretary of the Navy, BJ Penn, described the proposed US$15 billion build-up on a recent trip as “the largest project that the Department of Defence has ever attempted. ” This project includes the relocation of Marines from the US base on the Japanese island of Okinawa. Australian, US and Japanese forces under the recent trilateral agreement will be engaged in regular exercises, both on Guam and in Australia. Australian submarines routinely call into Guam. Further underscoring its importance to Washington, later this year Guam will host the world’s largest anti-terrorism exercises, to test inter-operability between agencies like Homeland Security, the military and civilian emergency response groups.

“Yes sir, this is a real exciting time to be here, ” reckons Major Dowdell, a US Airforce public affairs officer, as we look out over Andersen Airbase’s two kilometre runway, lined with B52 bombers and F-16 fighter jets, planes of all sizes coming and going.

“We are moving to combat ready and there are big plans underway here to be able to host a full range of air operations in the Asia Pacific region. ” I’m given a guided tour of the base and shown areas where new accommodation blocks are to be built. We grab cheese burgers at the mess and I’m told that the whole base is basically self sufficient, so that in a crisis it could go into lockdown and still be operational for months.

Major Dowdell outlines some basics stats: a further 3,000 airforce personnel and their dependants are expected to come, to add to the 3,000 personnel already here. More rotating B52 bomber squadrons, Sea King helicopters and a US$52 million headquarters for a Global Hawk surveillance drone squadron are to be based here, as well as a “Red Horse” engineers unit and an army ballistic missile defence battery and crew.

“We have a more diverse mission now, we have to have the ability to project combat power as well as being a support base, ” says Major Dowdell. “But we also have a humanitarian purpose, to provide assistance when this region suffers from natural disasters as it often does. ”

Over at the Navy base, a similar buzz is evident as plans unfold for upgrades of wharves and ammunition storage facilities even though Navy spokesmen say these plans were already underway and are separate to the proposed build-up.

Captain Robert Lee, a Navy public information officer who also leads the Joint Guam Program Office, claims that while most observers remain focused on Iraq and Afghanistan, the Pacific is emerging as the key strategic region of twenty-first century.

“There is now a whole strategic focus towards the Pacific by the joint Chiefs of Staff” he says. “We’re seeing a realignment of forces away from cold war theatres to Pacific theatres and Guam is ideal for us because it is US territory and therefore gives us maximum flexibility. ”

For Washington, Guam’s status as a US Territory essentially means that it doesn’t have to ask permission to do anything on the island, as it must do through Compact Agreements in other, nominally independent states. While the two American territories in the Pacific, Guam and American Samoa, are still listed with the UN’s Special Committee on Decolonisation, their status is unlikely to change soon.

Most Guamanians are happy for the build-up of US forces, suggesting it will boost the local economy, which has been stagnant for decades, and be a boon for local business. Austrade recently led a delegation to Guam and Australian companies are likely to be involved in some defence contracting work, such as in construction, as well as others in service industries, like dairy and tourism, which will spin off from the growing US presence. ANZ has also just acquired a local partner bank on Guam.

Frank Campillo at Guam’s Chamber of Commerce is upbeat: “We’re all pretty bullish about the prospects. There’ll be a significant trickle down effect from the US$15 billion and we’re already seeing a lot of real estate investment. But there are potential downsides too; like a shortage of labour and increased competition for our local business when the big multinationals come in. ”

But not everyone is happy about the build-up. Not surprisingly, some within the indigenous Chamoru community are against the ongoing militarisation and Americanisation of their islands, worried that they are becoming more of a military target. But even they acknowledge, rather forlornly, that they are small minority. Already, fully one third of the whole island belongs to the navy and airforce and is off limits to locals.

Captain Lee is consulting with local Guamanians on the impact of the build-up and trying to assuage certain concerns. Women’s groups are concerned about the social impact of so many military personnel around, environmental groups are challenging the military to clean up toxic dump sites, the local government is worried about pressure on existing infrastructure and ordinary Guamanians are worried about the rising costs of living.

“We’ve been conducting a bunch of community meetings here to show that we want to listen and learn how local people feel about the build-up, ” says Capt Lee in his office. “We’re doing our best to be consultative and I believe we have broad support from across the community here. But our bottom line is that we have to be ready in 2-3 years for the relocation of the Marines and to better support the 5th (Middle East) and 7th Fleets (Japan and Hawaii).”

Like Major Dowdell, Captain Lee ducks questions about the political status of Guam, suggesting that Guam’s status and the rights of its citizens to vote “is not my department. That’s really up to the politicians to decide, not the military. ”

He also believes the US military is doing its best to deal with environmental issues: some Guamanians claim there are 55 toxic dump sites around the island, including dumps of leftover Agent Orange, Agent Purple and DDT from the Vietnam war era.

“We have a pretty good ‘installation restoration’ program that is up to EPA standards and as soon as we find dumps we clean ‘em up” he says. “You’ll find the military are the best environmentalists because we’re fenced off and have to maintain on-going operations in these areas”.

This notion of being “fenced off”, or “behind the wire” is also one of the key community issues Captain Lee faces when listening to community concerns. Locals want the military to get away from its “behind the wire” mentality, to provide infrastructure for the whole island, not just the military.

“We are definitely taking those issues on board and trying to resolve them. We have a chance to do things a bit differently from Okinawa. ” Captain Lee believes.

Last year a delegation from Okinawa visited Guam to speak with local leaders to tell them what they can expect from the Marine deployment and a solidarity has developed between Okinawa, South Korean and Chamoru activists. One Saturday, a rendezvous is arranged for me at the Senator Santos Latte Memorial Park in downtown Hagatna, Guam’s old capital. Two lines of large “latte” stone pillars are reminders of the Chamoru’s 4,000 year old culture. Nearby, the whiff of barbecues is the first time I get a sense that some semblance of Pacific culture remains here, despite the military presence, highways and highrise hotels, and Japanese tourists that give Guam its mini-Honolulu feel.

A group of Nasion Chamoru (Chamoru nation) leaders have gathered to give their perspective, but the dialogue is more a lament than fiery activism.

The chief of the Chamorus, Ben Garido [sic] [Ben Garrido], comes to the point: “We are a US colony and this military build-up is going to be catastrophic for us because our own leaders have failed us and we are now a big target. Our Senators aren’t willing to stand up and they have no influence in Congress anyway. ”

“Our Governor is hostage to business interests. He and his Deputy have the power to represent us at the UN’s Special Committee on Decolonisation, but they refuse to do so. They are afraid of the US and afraid of those involved in Chamoru Nation because we dare to speak out. ”

The Chamoru Nation activists are still pursuing compensation for the suffering during the Japanese occupation of World War II to military land taken by the US after the war, but now there is the added fear of Guam’s increasing target status. “The US military want to bring a missile defence shield here, but man, how you gonna stop 100 missiles raining down on us here? This whole island could get wiped out, ” fears another activist, Robert Benavante. The voting issue also riles him.

“How come a US soldier posted here can vote after being here three months and yet we, indigenous people of Guam and US citizens, can never vote in US elections? What kind of democracy is this? ”

There are an estimated 200,000 Chamoru people existing today; about 60,000 on Guam, 40,000 on the neighbouring Saipan and Tinian islands, and the rest scattered throughout US territories in the Pacific and on the mainland. If they move to the US mainland, however, Chamorus have the right to work and vote.

“I know we represent a small minority here, but does that mean our voices shouldn’t be heard? ” asks Ben Garido. “Somehow we are seen as the terrorists on our own island, but all we want is some understanding and respect. At the very least there should be a treaty. ”

Over at the Governor’s office, Governor Felix Comacho and his deputy, Mike Cruz, give a good impression of being caught in the middle of it all. There are daily attacks on the competence of the Governor by the local pro-US newspaper alluding to financial mismanagement and lack of preparedness for the upcoming military build-up. Meanwhile Guamanians think he has either not done enough to get a good deal or has “sold out” the Chamorus.

Governor Comacho smiles wearily: “We’ve had 100 years of American military presence here, most of our sons and daughters have gone to war for the US. This build-up is highly anticipated and has general local support. But we know it will also change our lives forever. We hope it will be mutually beneficial, ” he says.

“We are loyal and we want to support US interests here, but you know, we’re not here to build USS Guam, we’re here to build our own nation too. Guam has come of age, it is the regional hub and we want to be able to help our brothers and sisters elsewhere in Micronesia who can also benefit from what happens here. ”

He plays down any fears that more Chamoru land will be taken by the military, believing the existing footprint of one-third of the island will remain. He hopes that the build-up will mean better funding for schools, healthcare and other infrastructure, and that environmental agencies will “hold the line” and not be intimidated by the Feds or forced deadlines.

“We don’t want another Okinawa situation here, a kind of inside-the-fence, outside-of-the-fence, ‘us and them’ mentality to grow between the military and our people” he says. “We want to find a balance and to promote greater interaction with the community, including the de-segregation of schools. ”

On its potential target status, Comacho says: “The risks are inherent. Guam’s main asset is its strategic location, but I think we are well protected. ”

The voting and political status issue is one area, however, where both Comacho and his deputy are more forthright. “Non-voting rights are a concern, we feel like we are second class citizens and we certainly want to improve on that. My deputy here, Mike Cruz, won the Bronze Star for valour fighting for the US in the Gulf war and he can’t vote? That’s not right. I believe as US citizens we should enjoy full rights. On the political status question, we sought Commonwealth status but that failed and so we are still waiting to find our place within the American family. ”

Ben Bohane is a photojournalist, author and television producer based in Vanuatu.