U.S. not in favor of May deadline on base

Published: Jan. 7, 2010

TOKYO, Jan. 7 (UPI) -- The United States has told Japan it wants a decision on relocating its Marine base in Okinawa much earlier than the May deadline sought by Tokyo.

Referring to the May timeframe to decide on the base issue, which the United States wants settled at the earliest on the basis of a 2006 agreement, Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said: "It is not the preferred timeline, as far as we are concerned. We've got a lot of work to do and not a lot of time," the Kyodo news service reported.

The base question has become an issue between the two countries since Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's Democratic Party of Japan came to power in September, supported by the Social Democratic Party and the People's New Party.

The Hatoyama government wants the Marine base, which includes an air station, moved completely out of Okinawa or even out of Japan. The United States has said there can be no change in the 2006 deal, reached after years of negotiations, calling for relocating the air station to a less populated region on Okinawa and moving about 8,000 Marines to Guam.

Morrell urged Japan to reach a ''positive conclusion'' on the issue ''as soon as possible," Kyodo reported.

The report said Wallace Gregson, assistant U.S. secretary of defense for Asia and the Pacific, separately told visiting Japanese opposition Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Shigeru Ishiba a longer wait would only make the issue harder to resolve, the report said.

Asia bent on acquiring aircraft carriers

By Devindra Sethi
Column: Maritime India
Published: November 02, 2009

New Delhi, India — Recent years have seen a flurry of orders for aircraft carriers by Japan, India, Australia, South Korea, Russia and China. The sudden focus on air capability at sea represents a paradigm change in the thinking of these states, and both communist and democratic governments appear to be on the same wavelength. Is this a harbinger of a new cold war in Asia?

Unresolved territorial disputes in East Asia, especially related to maritime boundaries, have resulted in the naval build-up by countries in the region. The discovery of oil and gas deposits in deep-sea locations around islands in the region has strengthened the importance of ownership claims.

The pursuit of aircraft carriers is also being fanned by recession-hit European economies largely funded by liberal government bailouts. Their high-tech exports have limited markets, but the rising economies of East and Southeast Asia have become prime candidates for military sales.

As the U.S. military withdraws from Iraq and perhaps Afghanistan, many think Asia could become the next flashpoint. Therefore Asian states are equipping their navies with the prime symbol of power – the aircraft carrier.

Equipping the Indian navy with aircraft carriers, as envisioned by former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, has stood India in good stead. The country has been operating them for well over 40 years now, which has boosted its naval and air power both in times of war and peace.

For almost a decade India operated two aircraft carriers, since the commissioning of the INS Viraat in 1987, which enhanced its operational profile and service capabilities in the Indian Ocean. The INS Viraat has recently been refitted in India and should see active service till 2015, while the 45,000-ton INS Vikramaditya is being refitted in Severodvinsk, Russia and should commence trials in 2011.

The new Vikrant class aircraft carriers are the Indian Navy’s first to be fully designed and built in India by Cochin Shipyard. Work on the lead vessel commenced in 2008 and is scheduled for launch in 2010. All aircraft carriers are being fitted to support three types of aircraft: the Sea Harrier, MIG-29KUB, the naval version of the light combat aircraft LCA and the TEJAS twin-seater being manufactured at Hindustan Aeronautics in Bangalore.

Some countries view the rise of the Indian Navy as inimical to their military power and business interests in Asia. Old thought processes die hard, and so a vigorous, proactive maritime diplomacy must be pursued by the Indian government.

China’s strategy to acquire aircraft carriers was enunciated by Admiral Liu Huaqing, who studied under Admiral S.G. Gorshkov at the Naval War College in Leningrad (now St. Petersburg). As with the Kremlin, the Chinese admiral had an uphill task to change the land-focused thinking of the Chinese Politburo. However, China’s recent naval review is a clear example of its “sea denial” strategy.

China is also pursuing an aircraft carrier acquisition strategy. Photographs have been taken of the unfinished Soviet aircraft carrier Varyag, purchased by China in 1998 and repainted in the colors of the PLA Navy, in a dockyard in the northeast port city of Dalian.

The Chinese story was that the ship would be used for a casino in the enclave of Macau. A chance meeting with the Macau delegation by the author indicated that they were from the PLA Navy. When asked for an opinion on the warship, I told them it would be very difficult to bring it up to its former Kuznetsov-class standards, but not impossible if money was available. The smiles of the officers said it all – finance is not a limitation for China. This indicates the seriousness with which China is pursuing its dream of an aircraft carrier.

Attempting to start aircraft carrier operations with a 60,000-ton hull is a leap into the unknown. It requires not only the acquisition of a mother ship, aircraft and helicopters, but the ability of 2,500 men and machines to operate at sea with clockwork precision and zero error, every day and in all weather conditions.

To work up the ship from its present refit state to combat status will take a minimum of 10 years. The learning curve will be very slow, difficult and full of hurdles to make the man and machine interface work smoothly. Intelligence reports indicate that China also plans to construct two new aircraft carriers in a shipyard in Shanghai. Apparently the ships will be similar to the Varyag, with nuclear propulsion.

Japan is building Hyuga-class helicopter destroyers, which are essentially 18,000-ton amphibious warfare ships that carry only helicopters. Japanese shipyards are more than capable of achieving the task, given their capability of operating aircraft carriers in the past.

Japan’s new government has recently stated that it will reexamine its past agreements with the U.S. military. The Japanese navy will have to scramble for additional units if the new dispensation is a “go it alone” strategy and the government asks the U.S. Navy to withdraw from its base in Okinawa.

The Australian government has also taken the bold decision to reacquire aircraft carriers and has placed orders for two Canberra-class ships. If hostilities develop in the Strait of Malacca and ships are rerouted into waters near northern Australia, protecting Australian waters will be imperative. Australia will need air power more than 500 miles from its coastline, and shore-based aircraft could not handle the task.

The Canberra-class ships, which are similar to India’s INS Viraat, are expected to be in service from 2014. They will be capable of operating 18 MRH-90 helicopters during hostilities. The navy’s biggest problem will be its ability to retain trained manpower. There are also reports of navy discussions on making Christmas Island an unsinkable aircraft carrier.

In 2007 South Korea commissioned an 18,600-ton “air warfare destroyer” equipped with the AEGIS system imported from the United States. This has amphibious capability and presently operates only helicopters. The South Korean Navy will reportedly acquire four of these Dokdo-class ships in the near future, primarily aimed at the North Korean navy.

Recently, this “interim aircraft carrier” has evoked a fair amount of interest from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. South Korea has very competent shipyards, and it is possible that after gaining valuable operating experience at sea, a larger variant may emerge in the decade beyond 2020.

Russia is the latest entrant to the aircraft carrier acquisition program, amid stirrings of national pride and a desire to reacquire old capabilities. Russia is reportedly purchasing a Mistral-class amphibious ship from France. It has been operating the aircraft carrier Kuznetsov for many years, and has deployed the ship and its fighter wing of SU-33 aircraft in European waters and the Mediterranean Sea. It also successfully tested the naval variant of the supersonic MIG-29 KUB from the Kuznetsov in 2009.

Media reports in Russia indicate that six new aircraft carriers are being sanctioned for operations in the Atlantic and Pacific seas by 2025. Russia could rebuild its naval power faster than anyone else in the Asia Pacific region, as it has its own manufacturing facilities, technology input and research and development facilities.

Modern nuclear-powered SSN submarines are based in Vladivostok to work in tandem with the aircraft carrier groups. The need to protect the oil- and gas-rich Siberian peninsula weighs heavily on the Russian government, as exports from this region to China and Europe are the mainstay of its economy.

The Pacific rim, from Vladivostok in the north to Australia in the south and across the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal, is in the throes of economic rejuvenation. The two fastest growing economies, China and India, have generated massive commodity trade, virtually all seaborne. Maritime tourism is rising too, as large cruise liners from the West are porting in Singapore and Hong Kong, among other places.

Security issues are increasingly coming to the fore, as the forces of destabilization are also located in this region, unfortunately. Organic air power at sea, beyond littoral waters, can be effectively provided by aircraft carriers only. This requirement is a boon for the languishing shipyards of Europe, as Asia is presently bereft of crucial infrastructure and manufacturing skills.

The aircraft carrier programs of Asia Pacific countries will cost well over US$100 billion in this decade, while infrastructure to support the ships over the next 50 years will cost another US$100 billion. The acquisition of armaments, aircraft, helicopters and associated systems will cost more than US$100 billion in the next five decades.

Aircraft carriers for Asia are a perfect opportunity for the slumping economies of the West, as their military and industrial complexes are geared to supply them. This has made the industry in the West recession proof. Aircraft carriers seldom sail singly; the battle group in support costs a pretty sum too, as it consists of high-technology ships like cruisers, destroyers and frigates. These add-ons will transfer at least US$200 billion to Europe, Russia and the United States in the decade ahead.

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(Captain Devindra Sethi is an alumnus of India's National Defense Academy, the College of Defense Management, the College of Naval Warfare, and the War College in St. Petersburg, Russia. He is a successful entrepreneur in the maritime industry and fluent in English, Russian and Hindi.

Japan FM wants talks on U.S. military base

Published: Sept. 18, 2009

TOKYO, Sept. 18 (UPI) -- Japan says it wants to discuss revising a deal on relocating a U.S. Marine air station within Okinawa, but Washington opposes renegotiating the deal.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Katsuya Okada, the foreign minister in the Democratic Party of Japan-led coalition, said there must be "serious discussions" on revising the relocation to reduce the burden on local residents.

The decision to transfer the air station, now located in a residential area of Ginowan, to the shores of Camp Schwab in Nago, also in the Okinawa Prefecture, was reached under a 2006 agreement.

Despite concerns that insistence on renegotiating the deal could cause friction between Japan and its closest ally, the United States, Okada said the issue is a top diplomatic priority.

"It is necessary for Japan and the Unites States to engage in discussions on this (air station) issue, making sure that there is a very high priority placed on it," he said, while noting the importance of the bilateral alliance.

The DPJ -- which won a landslide victory in last month's elections to Japan's lower house of parliament, ending the five-decade rule of the Liberal Democratic Party -- had campaigned on charting a more independent foreign policy.

Last month, U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly had been quoted as saying the plan, to be completed in about six years, cannot be renegotiated. The plan also calls for moving 8,000 of the 15,000 Marines from Okinawa to Guam.

The Times reported that deal faces strong opposition in Okinawa because of environmental and social concerns about the new base.

China ready to build aircraft carrier

By Andrei Chang
Column: Military Might
Published: June 02, 2009

Hong Kong, China — Shipbuilding experts from Eastern Europe have confirmed that China will start to build its own aircraft carrier this year, as preparations for the project are complete.

The experts had visited the No. 3 military dock of the Changxing Island Shipyard – the new location of the Jiangnan Shipyard, known as the cradle of China’s defense industry – based in Shanghai, where they acquired exclusive photos of the interior of the shipyard. From these it can be deduced that China is ready to commence building the aircraft carrier at this dock.

Chinese armed police have dramatically strengthened their watch on Dock No. 3. All the entrances to and exits from this dock are under armed police guard, with plainclothes police on patrol. In contrast, the entrances to Dock No. 1, where civilian ships are built, are guarded only by shipyard security staff.

Dock No. 3 is 580 meters long, 120 meters wide, and completely encircled by a wall at least 2.5 meters high. A giant gantry crane has been built, with a capacity to lift at least 600 tons. The dock is large enough to build a medium-sized conventional aircraft carrier similar to the Russian Admiral Kuznetsov class with a light load displacement of about 50,000 tons.

The outfitting quay for No. 3 Dock has been finished and includes a large gantry crane. According to the Eastern European sailors who visited the shipyard, the quay is 8 kilometers long, and was finished in the autumn of 2008.

A number of large containers have been shipped to the area near the dock. Among senior shipbuilding experts from Germany, France and Italy who examined the shipyard photos, one suggested the containers might be loaded with oxygen supplies and power-generating equipment, as huge amounts of oxygen and power would be required for welding engineering.

An Eastern European source familiar with the aircraft carrier project said China had invested 35 billion yuan (US$5.1 billion) in the facilities at Changxing Island, including three gigantic joint-structured indoor assembly workshops in which the separate sections of the carrier would be built.

The expert from the French shipbuilding industry said these facilities could be used for processing steel plates and section materials, or the preliminary treatment or assembly of separate sections of the carrier.

Sources say that the shipyard and all its facilities were built at a very fast pace. A separate road network was finished around January 2007, to provide safety and security for the project. Despite attempts at secrecy, many residents of the nearby Changxing township knew that the shipyard was being readied to make China’s first aircraft carrier.

The facilities include numerous five-story buildings – accommodations for nearly 60,000 peasant laborers hired to build the aircraft carrier facilities – that have been in use since early this year. A correspondent for Kanwa Defense Review visited the area to interview peasant workers recruited for this project. The workers said they were paid from 3,000 to 4,000 yuan (US$440 to $585) per month, which is three or four times what an ordinary laborer in Shanghai can earn, and that their living conditions were very good.

The round-shaped headquarters building was to be finished this spring. Free-standing residential buildings in red and grey have been constructed for the shipbuilding experts. Satellite photos show that these houses are quite luxurious.

Judging from the size of the three gigantic joint-structured indoor assembly workshops affiliated to Dock No.3, it is fully possible that the separate modules of the ship will be built in these workshops and finally assembled at the dock.

Sources claim that China intends to build, equip and launch its first aircraft carrier – internally named “Beijing” – between 2009 and 2015. It is possible that the process could take longer, however.

The first steps will include the processing and cutting of steel plates and section materials as well as the assembly of sectional parts. When the keel is laid down it will be difficult to keep it secret, as the keel of the aircraft carrier must be towed to the dock in one piece.

June 3 is a date worth watching, as that day will be the Jiangnan Shipyard’s 144th anniversary. It is part of Chinese culture to mark anniversaries in a special way to bring good fortune. Therefore, China may take the opportunity to officially launch the aircraft carrier project on this date.

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(Andrei Chang is editor-in-chief of Kanwa Defense Review Monthly, registered in Toronto, Canada.)

North Korea’s trap for Japan

By Richard Albert
Guest Commentary
Published: April 23, 2009

Say what you will about North Korean tyrant Kim Jong Il – and many commentators have done just that, calling him crazy, delusional, erratic, suicidal and psychologically unbalanced – but do not underestimate the shrewd intellect and evil genius of this dangerous man. For behind the veil that conceals reality from perception, Kim is a sinfully clever strategist who has duped presidents from the United States to South Korea, prime ministers from the United Kingdom to Taiwan, and international organizations from the United Nations to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Now Kim’s latest target is Japan.

Kim has been monitoring with great interest the recent political debate in neighboring Japan about whether the island state should raise a military. Pitting liberal traditionalists against conservative nationalists, this debate could mark a pivotal moment in Japanese history.

Were Japan to build an army, navy or air force, or all three, it would in doing so forsake its national commitment to pacifism that has endured for over a half-century – because ever since the dusk of World War II, the Japanese Constitution has renounced the twin sovereign rights to declare war and to maintain offensive armed forces.

But today Japan stands on the brink of shedding its pacifist skin. It is not difficult to understand why. After all, the longstanding American pledge to defend Japan from foreign aggression has never been less reassuring than it is now. Given just how thinly the American military is currently stretched as it fights wars along two brutally unforgiving fronts in Afghanistan and Iraq, the prospects are dim that the United States could mount a third campaign to defend an ally even as geostrategically important as Japan.

Against this threatening backdrop, Japan is left standing virtually alone as it stares down the barrel of colossal foreign policy challenges: managing escalating tensions with a newly emboldened Russia, navigating the rough waters between China and nearby Taiwan, and preparing for all contingencies in the face of North Korean brinkmanship toward South Korea.

No wonder Japan is giving serious thought to resurrecting its military.

Japan is playing right into Kim Jong Il’s hands. With Japan once again a military power in the region, old tensions would heighten and new ones would develop – and Kim would have it no other way. Not only because it would ease the glare of the light shining on his ghastly regime but also because it would induce a recalibration of national relations in the region.

China would come to look upon Japan with even more suspicion than it already does, Russia would see its military dominance in the region compromised, and South Korea, which has not always enjoyed amiable relations with Japan, would find itself surrounded by military powers on all sides. Not to mention that the United States – only a stone’s throw away across the Pacific Ocean – would worry that Japan, now removed from the American military umbrella, could disrupt the delicate diplomatic balance that the United States has cultivated in the region, admittedly with varying success.

All of this is disconcerting enough. But the real cunning of Kim Jong Il is nowhere more clear than in his prevarications on nuclear disarmament. Kim has always kept the international community guessing as to his real intentions. His duplicity has allowed him to wield untold leverage, even when he was in no position to demand it.

Since the 1990s, North Korea has aggressively pursued its nuclear weapons program, beginning by launching plutonium and uranium enrichment programs, then withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and subsequently expelling international weapons inspectors. Kim later agreed in 2007 to allow the return of inspectors and to dismantle his nuclear program in exchange for economic assistance, security pledges and diplomatic privileges. But just last week, after the United Nations Security Council had rebuked North Korea for its rocket launch in early April, Kim once again expelled inspectors and vowed to resume his nuclear weapons program.

Kim’s actions have left Japan understandably more worried than ever before. For if Kim cannot be persuaded to forego his nuclear ambitions by all that has been offered to North Korea over the last decade – including billions of dollars, boatloads of food, a non-aggression pact, diplomatic recognition and removal from the list of state sponsors of terror – then Japan must assume that nothing will convince Kim to turn away from his dream of a nuclear North Korea.

Japan has responded to Kim Jong Il’s latest moves by openly contemplating the possibility of not only forming an active military but at the same time also itself becoming a nuclear military power. Shoichi Nakagawa, a prominent member of the governing party in the House of Representatives, recently declared that Japan should consider developing nuclear arms because only they are capable of deterring someone with Kim’s growing weapons arsenal.

Should Japan indeed become a nuclear military state – something that is fully within its reach given that Japan is currently among the world’s largest producers of nuclear energy, and therefore possesses vast quantities of the plutonium needed to equip nuclear warheads – that will give Kim every motivation to keep building his nuclear program because he will be able to claim, disingenuously to be sure, that his weapons are for purely defensive purposes.

A nuclear Japan will moreover divest the international community of its most effective argument in future negotiations with North Korea, namely that the world is moving progressively toward nuclear disarmament. That is precisely the argument that Kim wants so terribly to undermine.

The North Korean trap is therefore set for Japan. If Japan falls for the trap – either by renouncing its pacifist tradition to build a military equipped to wage war or, worse yet, a military equipped to wage nuclear war – the first casualty will be Japan’s honorable post-war legacy of peaceful diplomacy. Other casualties much more tragic may follow soon thereafter.

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(Richard Albert is a constitutional scholar and political scientist. He is currently president of the Canadian Council for Democracy in Ottawa, Ontario. He welcomes email at richard.albert@ccd-ccd.com. ©Copyright Richard Albert.)

US envoy asks Japan to boost defense role

By Hiroyuki Koshoji
UPI Correspondent
Published: January 15, 2009

Tokyo, Japan — The U.S. ambassador to Japan has urged the country to play a greater role in the international community, as an ally of the United States, and to rethink the interpretation of its pacifist Constitution with regard to defense.

Thomas Schieffer, who will leave Japan this month as U.S. President-elect Barack Obama takes over the administration, was speaking to the press in Tokyo Wednesday.

Asked if the Japan-U.S. alliance should be redefined, Schieffer said, "I think a redefinition would be appropriate."

“I think America would welcome an alliance of equals, and I think Japan would too. But an alliance of equals is one that has equal responsibilities and equal shares in the future," he said, adding, "I think Japan can speak with a louder voice in international affairs."

Photo: U.S. ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer speaks at his last press conference in Tokyo on Jan. 14, 2009, before flying back home. Schieffer called on Japan to shoulder equal responsibility in international affairs as an allied partner of the United States.

Scheiffer, who has served as U.S. ambassador to Japan since January 2005 and understands the severe controls placed on its defense forces under the pacifist Constitution, called on Japan to change the interpretation of the Constitution to permit the country to defend allies under attack.

If a missile were launched from Asia, for instance, and a Japanese destroyer had a chance to knock it down but didn't because it was headed to the United States, he said, "I think the American people would find it very difficult to understand the value of the alliance with Japan."

As the Japanese government has interpreted the post-World War II Constitution, it does not allow collective defensive actions, even though the country has the right to defend itself.

Successive prime ministers, including Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe, have tried to change the interpretation of the Constitution. But the current administration of Taro Aso has held to a complex policy that involves having the right to take defensive action, but not exercising it.

However, as Japan and the United States have already deployed a missile defense system in four places around Tokyo and on four of Japan's Aegis destroyers, Japan can be considered to be already engaged in collective defense.

Japan and the United States each have a destroyer in the Sea of Japan, but the United States would have to beef up its defenses there if the Japanese were not willing to knock out a missile headed to the United States, Schieffer said.

"I don't believe Article 9 (of the Constitution) necessarily needs to be revised, but the interpretation of collective defense needs to be looked at," he emphasized.

Regarding North Korea, Schieffer was insistent that the country must give up its nuclear weapons or remain isolated from the international community. He said the United States sees North Korea’s nuclear weapons as “tremendously destabilizing” and increasing the chances of an accidental war.

Schieffer’s remarks are likely to affect Japanese leaders, who have placed the Japan-U.S. relationship at the center of their foreign policy. Analysts predict that U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, who has pledged to withdraw combat troops from Iraq within 16 months and transfer some of them to Afghanistan, may increase pressure on Japan to contribute to this or other tasks.

Prime Minister Taro Aso, at a New Year’s press conference, expressed his intention to consider changes to the official interpretation of collective self-defense.

Moreover, the government is preparing to introduce legislation to the current Diet session that would allow it to dispatch its Maritime Self-Defense Force to the Indian Ocean to join international patrols guarding waters off Somalia against piracy. The new law would ease restrictions on the navy's use of weapons.

For a complete transcript of the speech CLICK here. [The speech does not mention the movement of Marines from Okinawa to Guam.]

Will Obama escalate U.S. demands on Japan?

By Hiroyuki Koshoji
UPI Correspondent
Published: November 10, 2008

Tokyo, Japan — U.S. President-elect Barack Obama is going to need cooperation from U.S. allies in order to deal with the crises he has inherited from the George W. Bush administration, such as the global financial crisis and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Japanese leaders, who have placed the Japan-U.S. relationship at the center of their foreign policy, anticipate greater U.S. pressure for financial help and troop deployment under an Obama administration.

One concern of Japanese politicians following Obama's landslide victory is that the Democratic Party has few policymakers with strong connections to Japan, unlike the Republican Party, which includes a number of prominent figures considered pro-Japan. These include former Secretary of State Colin Powell, former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and Michael Green, who holds the Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a major Washington think tank.

"Obama has already established a policy committee to discuss political measures with Japan, sending signals toward Japan, but it is difficult to find lawmakers who know Japan well among the Democrats," said Masaru Nishikawa, a researcher on U.S. politics at the Japan Institute of International Affairs.

However, most Japanese analysts agree that the change of the U.S. president’s party affiliation will not bring major changes in the Japan-U.S. alliance.

"The alliance between Japan and the United States is well established and will not change under the new administration," said Naoyuki Agawa, former minister for public affairs at the Japanese Embassy in Washington, D.C., and now a professor at Keio University in Tokyo.

Agawa predicts that the United States may ask Japan for help in resolving the financial meltdown, as this is the top U.S. priority. "For the United States, whose economy has reached a serious stage, the most reliable countries are economic giants,” he said. “One such country is Japan."

During his campaign for the presidency, Obama pledged to withdraw combat troops from Iraq within 16 months and transfer some of them to Afghanistan to bolster forces battling Taliban and al-Qaida militants. The United States is highly likely to call on Japan for support in this task.

"Like the U.S.-British alliance, the next administration will deal with the alliance between Japan and the United States as a matter of course, and ask a continuation of Japanese Self-Defense Force's fuel supply activity in the Indian Ocean or troop deployment to Afghanistan," said Masashi Nishihara, director of the Research Institute for Peace and Security in Tokyo.

"The Republican Party, which has understood Japan's domestic affairs compassionately, has not made uncompromising demands on Japan,” said Nishihara. “But the Democrats may not be as considerate of Japan, which has severe controls on its troops under our pacifist Constitution."

In June this year, the Japanese government dispatched a team of 10 people from the Cabinet Office, Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry to investigate the possibility of Japanese troops conducting rescue operations for injured soldiers in Afghanistan, after the Bush administration asked if Japan could deploy transport aircraft or large helicopters for this purpose. But Japan finally dropped the plan because its troops might be required to return fire against insurgents, thus violating Japan’s constitutional ban on using force.

If the Obama administration were to request such a deployment, Japan would be forced to make a tough decision.

"Even under the current Constitution, the transport of commodities can be carried out by Japan's Air Self-Defense Force in specific circumstances," Nishihara said. He believes that the deployment of Japanese troops to Afghanistan would bolster ties with the United States.

Agawa also emphasized the importance of strengthening the alliance through contributing to international operations. "Japan should not disappoint the United States with regard to its major headaches, its economic problems and the Afghanistan war." He said Japan should change its passive mindset and be proactive in offering advice and assistance.

On the other hand, the issue of North Korea may complicate Japan-U.S. relations, as the two countries’ interests diverge on this issue.

Early last month the United States removed North Korea from its terrorism blacklist. Obama, who favors direct communication with adversarial countries, voiced support for the decision. The U.S. move and Obama’s support for it disappointed Japan, which has been calling on the United States to pressure Pyongyang to account for Japanese citizens it abducted decades ago.

While the United States is adopting a conciliatory approach, Japan is holding firm to its hard-line stance under the strain of the emotional abduction issue and the threat of a nuclear attack from North Korea. Tokyo extended its economic sanctions against North Korea for another six months in August this year, citing the country's lack of progress on the abduction issue.

The sanctions, including a ban on North Korean-flagged ships entering Japanese ports and any imports from the country, were originally imposed in October 2006 after North Korea conducted a nuclear test.

"We will see how the Democrats, which have been sensitive about human rights issues, criticize the abuse of human rights in North Korea. There is a possibility they will decide to carry forward the diplomatic normalization negotiations with the country, which benefits the U.S., rather than criticizing the issues," Nishihara said.

Many Japanese researchers eye the U.S.-North Korean bilateral talks on nuclear disarmament with suspicion, fearing they may give silent approval to Pyongyang’s continued possession of nuclear weapons, behind the scenes.

"The new administration may have a tiny expectation that it can dismantle the bombs if it continues the negotiations, but almost give up," Nishihara said.

"Since the United States has acknowledged India's nuclear bombs by signing the atomic energy agreement with India early last month, it cannot strongly oppose if North Korea insists the United States should approve their possession," he said. He predicted that the agreement with India will put the Obama administration at a disadvantage in the future.

Aso pledges to revive Japan's economy

By HIROSHI YAMAZAKI
UPI Correspondent
Published: September 29, 2008

Tokyo, Japan — Following his speech at the United Nations in New York last week, Taro Aso, Japan's new prime minister, made his debut in the Diet Monday by introducing a strong and concise strategy to revive the country’s faltering economy.

At the opening of the Diet session, Aso set forth a three-stage program including short-term recovery measures, medium-term plans to rebuild public finance and structural reforms to induce long-term growth.

"The Japanese economy will heal in three years," he pledged.

Repeating his favorite slogan, “toward a strong and bright Japan," the 67-year-old Aso reminded his compatriots that Japan has overcome numerous past challenges, and will surely do so again, growing stronger in the process.

"I have no doubt about the potential of Japan and the Japanese people," Aso said. The phrase echoes the sentiment of his recent book, “Incredible Japan,” which stresses the country’s strengths.

Aso will soon have to defend his new position in a general election, but is favored to win, thanks to his optimism and attractive personality. According to a recent Yomiuri Shimbun poll, Aso’s rating, at 59 percent, was twice that of his challenger Ichiro Ozawa, head of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan.

But in order to kick off his recovery program, Aso needs the Diet to quickly approve a 1.8 trillion-yen (US$17 billion) supplementary budget.

If passed, the budget will not only stimulate the economy, but will raise the chances of Aso’s Liberal Democratic Party taking the lead in the upcoming elections.

News reports indicate that Aso will dissolve the Lower House of the Diet immediately following the budget debate.

The DPJ has been calling for early elections, believing it has a good chance of taking over the government. The Upper House of the Diet has been under the control of the DPJ-led opposition for more than a year.

Mindful of this possibility, the prime minister stacked his policy statement Monday with unusually sharp and pointed criticism and challenges toward the opposition parties. Particularly, he questioned the DPJ's political wisdom and integrity in indulging in party politics and a desperate power grab at a time when there is urgent national business at hand.

Former Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, whose abrupt resignation surprised everyone and disappointed many in the nation, had expressed frustration over the difficulty of conducting government business when the DPJ-dominating Upper House repeatedly rejected important legislation and personnel appointments.

The current governor of the central bank was endorsed by the Diet only after two candidates failed to win approval from the opposition in the Upper House.

Aso, perhaps in an attempt to show he is made of stronger stuff, swore in his speech to the Diet Monday that he would not back down in the face of pressure from the opposition. "I shall not retreat," he declared.

By deliberately delaying legislation related to economic relief, including tax cuts, the opposition is doing a disservice to ordinary people who are suffering from the current recession, he said. He accused the DPJ of violating their own election slogan, in which the party claimed that politics was to protect people's livelihoods.

On the diplomatic front, Aso reiterated the vital importance of strengthening Japan’s alliance with the United States as the basis for national security. He also confirmed his commitment to maintaining Japan's refueling activities in the Indian Ocean for international vessels engaged in anti-terror operations.

Aso pledges to protect Japan's economy

By HIROSHI YAMAZAKI
UPI Correspondent
Published: September 19, 2008

Tokyo, Japan — Taro Aso, widely expected to become Japan’s next prime minister when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party selects a new leader on Monday, suggested Friday that the new government would tackle emergency economic measures before holding general elections for the country’s Parliament.

The 67-year-old former foreign minister, who is currently the LDP's secretary general, stressed that elections should not be held until the ruling bloc and the Cabinet can finalize "urgent comprehensive economic measures," including a supplementary budget to protect Japan from the impact of the sliding world economy.

Aso has been vocal throughout his campaign in favor of economic recovery measures rather than keeping stringent structural reforms intact. His opponents claim that he would further inflate Japan’s growing public debt.

Aso and four other candidates for the LDP leadership have been campaigning nationwide, holding joint speaking events in 16 cities. All five showed up Friday to address foreign media at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan in Tokyo.

The LDP leader will be decided by only 527 votes – cast by the party’s 386 Diet members and 141 representatives of district party organizations. On their tour the candidates have been emphasizing their agreements rather than their differences, suggesting the party has already reached consensus on its future leadership.

Still, the party has considered this internal race a good opportunity to rally public support ahead of general elections that may take place before the end of October.

News analysts have been treating Aso's victory as a foregone conclusion, turning their speculations to his possible Cabinet list and the dates for the Diet to be dissolved and a snap election called.

"That was the prevalent scenario last week,” said Kaoru Yosano, minister for economic and fiscal policy and regulatory reform, and at 70 the most senior candidate. “But this week we have found ourselves obliged to take into consideration the world's economic and financial situation."

He was referring to the financial turmoil originating in the United States, where the investment banking firm Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and leading insurance group AIG was saved by a massive injection of American taxpayers' money this week. The central banks of major developed countries are cooperating to pump billions of dollars into global money markets to calm fears of a global meltdown.

At Friday's press conference, two younger candidates, Nobuteru Ishihara, 51, and Yuriko Koike, 56, both speaking in fluent English, insisted on the need for administrative reforms. Koike, the first ever female candidate for the LDP leadership, even suggested that the party "dismantle the bureaucratic behemoth" and let the prime minister's office control the bureaucrats.

Koike expressed appreciation for the drastic policies of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who pumped trillions of yen from the public coffers into major banks that were failing under the heavy burden of non-performing loans in the wake of the bubble that burst in the early 1990s. "America had better learn Japan's lessons," she advised.

Reflecting on Japan's financial crisis a decade ago, Aso said that because of sharp opposition, particularly from the mass media, to the injection of public money to save private institutions, several main banks and securities firms were allowed to go bankrupt at that time. Rescue measures came so late that they ended up costing more than necessary, he said.

Asked by a Chinese reporter about the state of Japan-China relations, Koike and Aso pointed out that China's double-digit increase in its military budget and lack of transparency were cause for concern. However, both suggested that Japan could help China overcome its environmental problems and develop energy-saving technologies, as Japan had faced the same problems in earlier decades.

A dark horse candidate, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 51, stressed the importance of national security and diplomacy in addition to the country’s domestic agenda. His candidacy, endorsed mostly by junior Diet members, reflects a great sense of crisis prevalent among LDP members about the future of their party and the country, he claimed.

Among the five, Ishiba was most vocal in criticizing main opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa, 66, of the Democratic Party of Japan. "We hold starkly different perceptions of the national security from Mr. Ozawa," he said of his party. He blamed the DPJ for making sweet promises that cannot be backed up by budgetary resources. "They cannot be the responsible party," he said.

Whichever of the five candidates secures the LDP's top post will have to confront Ozawa, who is staking everything on his last chance to come to power in the coming elections.

Generally, religion is not an issue in Japanese politics. But in response to a question posed by an Italian reporter, Aso acknowledged that he is a fourth-generation Roman Catholic through his family, having received five out of the seven sacraments offered by the church. Christians in Japan make up less than 1 percent of the whole population.

Japan alarmed by China’s military buildup

By HIROYUKI KOSHOJI
UPI Correspondent
Published: September 08, 2008

TOKYO, Japan — Japan’s Defense Ministry, in its annual white paper released last Friday, expressed alarm over China's fast-paced military modernization, pointing out for the first time that the country had stepped into militarizing space and had boosted its cyber warfare ability.

The report, endorsed by the Japanese Cabinet, is a clear indication of Japan’s displeasure with China’s military build-up and cites new reasons for the rise in China’s defense spending. The reason for China to modernize its military capabilities is to prevent any aggression from Taiwan including any support for its independence by foreign troops, the report said.

Early this year, China announced its defense budget of US$58.8 billion for 2008, which is 17.6 percent higher compared to the previous year. It is the 20th consecutive double-digit increase in defense spending, surpassing Japan's defense budget of $44.3 billion for 2008. However, a Pentagon study on China’s military buildup estimates China's real military spending to be two to three times higher than its official report because it does not include the development costs for new weapons or purchases of advanced weapons from foreign countries.

Japan's latest defense report says that China has deployed new DF-31A intercontinental ballistic missiles, which have a range of 6,200 miles and is developing new Ju Lang-2 or JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. To load JL-2, it is now constructing a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. "If China puts JL-2 to practical use in addition to the already deployed DF-31A, its strategic nuclear force will be considerably upgraded," the report said.

Besides, the report also mentions China developing new anti-ship ballistic missiles based on the DF-21 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which has already been deployed. China also possesses more than a hundred H-6 nuclear-capable medium-range bombers, it warned.

The report also mentions China's growing military capabilities in space. "It has also been pointed out that China is developing an instrument that uses lasers to hamper the functions of satellites," it said.

However, Japanese military analysts have pointed some drawbacks in China’s growing military arsenal such as lack of high-tech global positioning system guided missiles, precision-guided bombs, stealth weapons, Aegis destroyers, surveillance drones and high-resolution intelligent satellites.

According to the report, to close the gap on other military superpowers such as the United States, believed to have the world's strongest military troops, China is enhancing its cyber warfare ability by experimenting on a host of computer viruses and other Internet technologies designed to freeze enemy command structures. "China appears to possess interest in the cyber warfare as they seem to be currently organizing and training a special cyber warfare unit," it warned.

The report highlights China’s growing military threat by revealing events in 2007 when China took aggressive and threatening positions by piloting aircrafts near the Japan-China median line. Some H-6 medium-range bombers flew into the Japanese air defense identification zone over the East China Sea in September last year, when negotiations between both countries remained deadlocked over issues related to natural gas fields in the East China Sea. Disagreement prevails between the two countries on the sea boundary, which divides their territories in the gas-rich zone.

Regarding North Korea, the report emphasized that nuclear weapons were still a threat, as that country had not showed any intent to completely abandon its arsenal of nuclear weapons despite international pressure, especially from the United States. "It is difficult to eliminate the possibility that North Korea, in a relatively short time, has realized the downsizing of nuclear weapons and deployment of nuclear warheads," it said.

Territorial disputes over islands between Japan and South Korea known as Takeshima in Japan and Dokdo in South Korea also made it to Japan’s annual military report. Despite its close and friendly ties with South Korea the report defended Japan’s rights to the islands. “Japan also confronts unresolved territorial disputes over the Northern Territories and Takeshima, both of which are integral parts of Japanese territory," it said.

Japan still at war with its past

By HIROSHI YAMAZAKI
UPI Correspondent
Published: August 15, 2008

Tokyo, Japan — Japan is still struggling to settle its wartime legacy, 63 years after the late Emperor Hirohito declared the end of military action on Aug. 15, 1945, the longest summer day in modern Japanese history.

About 5,200 relatives of those who died during World War II paid their respects Friday to more than 3.1 million Japanese war dead, including civilians, women and children, in the annual secular memorial ceremony sponsored by the government at Tokyo's Nippon Budokan, built within a park adjacent to the Imperial Palace in central Tokyo.

Photo: Japanese parliamentarians pay their respects at the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, Japan, on Aug. 15, 2008, to mark the 63rd anniversary of the end of World War II and pray that the history of war will not repeat.

At noon, Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko, the heads of the three branches of government, ministers, parliamentarians and more than 1,000 leading figures from many sectors of society offered a minute of silent prayer, echoed by many compatriots across the country.

In his memorial address, Emperor Akihito, facing a five-meter-tall wooden memorial for the war dead, said, "Reflecting upon history, sincerely wishing there will be no replay of the misery of war, I pay sincere tribute to the memory of those who died in the war's front lines or under its scourge, and would like to pray for world peace and the progress of our nation."

Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda also addressed the crowd. He acknowledged the damage and pain Japan inflicted on many countries, especially in Asia, during the war.

"Here I express, on behalf of the nation, deep remorse and humble condolences to all of the people who fell victim," he said. He urged the nation not to be entrapped by an inward-looking, national-interest orientation, saying, "We shall renew our commitment to no aggression, lead the international community as a peace-fostering nation, and work proactively toward establishing permanent peace."

As time has gone by, few parents of the dead remain to take part in this ceremony. Even spouses of the dead numbered less than 100. Many of those who came to pay their respects are the offspring of those killed in action thousands of miles from their homeland, of those who died at home under intense bomb attacks, or of those who perished in the two atomic bombs dropped on Japan.

Representing all the surviving relatives, Kiwako Matsunaga, 89, whose husband died in action on an island in Western New Guinea at the age of 32, read out her tearful tribute to the loyal soldiers, acknowledged the hardship their wives and children had to undergo, and ended her tribute with her wish that the ravages of war would never be repeated.

While the generation with vivid personal war recollections is passing away literally by the day, the war's legacy is still unsettling to their descendants.

Many of those who attended the ceremony also paid their respects at the Yasukuni Shrine, only five minutes’ walk from the Budokan. Earlier in the day three current Cabinet ministers, two former prime ministers – Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe – and 53 members of parliament across party lines paid their respects at the shrine.

Prime Minister Fukuda, as expected, did not go to the shrine, ostensibly in order not to antagonize China and South Korea.

For many bereaved families the Yasukuni Shrine holds special meaning; many Japanese soldiers headed off to war, and anticipating their own deaths, would promise to meet their loved ones again at the shrine, where those who died fighting for the nation were traditionally enshrined.

But at Friday's memorial, Yohei Kono, speaker of the House of Representatives, suggested that people pay respects at an alternative, non-religious memorial, given that Yasukuni Shrine is affected by "unsettled issues emanating from history in relation to our neighbors."

He was referring to the enshrinement there of 14 military and government leaders who were tried at the Tokyo International Tribunal and judged as class A war criminals for their "crimes against peace."

Some Asian countries, especially South Korea and China, have accused Japanese leaders who paid visits to the Yasukuni Shrine of honoring these men and their militarism.

Sharp differences over what actually happened during the war still exist, however, as is apparent in an annex to the shrine called the Yushukan. It portrays Japan’s military accomplishments, including victories in the Sino-Japan and Russo-Japan Wars.

A film about World War II shown in this hall, called "We shall remember," shows documentary footage of events leading up to war and eventual defeat. It justifies Japan’s attack on the United States as a response to economic sanctions including an oil embargo imposed in 1941 by the United States, which was Japan’s main oil supplier at the time.

The film also disputes the validity of the Tokyo International Tribunal that judged Japan’s leaders, calling it “victor’s justice.”

Seoul relieved by Bush's stand on islands

By LEE JONG-HEON
UPI Correspondent
Published: July 31, 2008

Seoul, South Korea — South Korea's diplomatic policymakers breathed a sigh of relief on Thursday as the United States reversed its recent decision to change the status of the islets at the center of a territorial dispute between Seoul and Tokyo.

Japan’s Ambassador to Washington Lee Tae-sik was "outraged" to learn earlier this week that the U.S. Board on Geographic Names had modified its classification of the Dokdo islets from a territory of South Korea to one with "undesignated sovereignty."

Lee and Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan had been accused of failing to prevent the United States from adopting a neutral reference to the islets, weakening South Korea's claim of sovereignty over the small island that is also claimed by Japan.

The U.S. shift in favor of Japan was widely seen here as a serious diplomatic setback for President Lee Myung-bak, who has pledged to build stronger ties with the United States.

Lee ordered a "thorough probe" into possible "negligence of duty" of Seoul's embassy in Washington and its ambassador in handling the case, the presidential office said, adding the ambassador and anybody would be held "responsible if necessary."

Opposition parties and even some ruling lawmakers called for the dismissal of the foreign minister too, who was already under fire for a series of blunders, including a fiasco at the recent ASEAN Regional Forum and a U.S. beef import deal.

But the presidential office on Thursday ruled out a dismissal of President Lee's foreign policy team, as the United States has reversed its week-long decision and reclassified the Dokdo islets as a territory of South Korea.

The reversal came after U.S. President George W. Bush directed Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to look into the matter, according to Seoul's Foreign Ministry.

Earlier, embattled Ambassador Lee rushed to U.S. officials to call for the reversal of the decision and raised the issue with Bush when they met with U.S. and South Korean business leaders at the White House, the ministry said.

After Seoul’s desperate request, Bush's National Security Council informed Seoul's embassy in Washington of the U.S. decision to restore the status of the islets, it said.

President Lee's office immediately issued a statement to welcome the U.S. decision as “reflecting the restoration of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and mutual trust."

"The exceptionally swift action shows President Bush fully understands the sentiment of South Koreans, and is an outcome that reflected deep trust and friendship between the two leaders," the presidential spokesman said.

The Foreign Ministry also issued a similar statement hailing Bush's move, describing it as a result of the ministry's strenuous efforts to reverse the U.S. decision to change Dokdo's status.

In a sense of relief, Foreign Minister Yu invited U.S. Ambassador to Seoul Alexander Vershbow to his office to express his thanks for Washington's restoration of Dokdo's status.

The Dokdo issue is highly sensitive to South Koreans who still harbor deep-rooted bitterness against Japan for its 1910-45 colonial occupation.

South Koreans’ anger heightened earlier this month when Japan decided to officially describe the disputed islets as Japanese territory in educational handbooks.

In protest, South Korean Prime Minister Han Seung-soo visited the islands earlier this week as the highest-level official ever to travel there, and staged a military drill near the islets, drawing criticism from Tokyo.

Dokdo, a cluster of two main islets and dozens of attached rocks and reefs that lies about halfway between the Korean peninsula and Japan's largest island of Honshu, has long been a source of dispute between the two neighbors. Japan calls the islets Takeshima.

The deepening dispute has raised concerns that worsening ties between Seoul and Tokyo may undermine U.S.-led efforts to curb nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia. Seoul and Tokyo are Washington’s key Asian allies and key partners to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons drive.

Foreign Ministry officials here expressed hope that the planned summit between Lee and Bush next week would bring about substantial results on forging a stronger alliance between the two countries, as the Dokdo dispute was resolved.

Bush plans to arrive in Seoul on Aug. 5 on a two-day visit ahead of attending the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in Beijing. Government officials were concerned that Bush's visit may rekindle anti-U.S. sentiment in South Korea swept by a strong wave of protests against U.S. beef imports for the past two months.

The U.S. president was originally scheduled to visit Seoul in early July, but delayed it amid strong street protests here against the resumption of beef imports.

Just ahead of his first meeting with Bush in April, Lee agreed to resume U.S beef imports, which was widely considered here as a political concession to win stronger U.S. security commitments.

The beef deal has sparked strong protests, leading Lee's popularity to a record low. Lee was forced to make a public apology and reshuffle his Cabinet and presidential office, but these moves have failed to tame the public anger.

Government officials had been worried that next week's summit would be overshadowed by the territorial dispute between Seoul and Tokyo, but now they are hopeful that the two leaders will focus their second meeting on building a stronger alliance.

"We expect the summit to produce measures to make the bilateral alliance stronger," a government official said.

Taiwan's defense priorities

By Andrei Chang
Column: Military Might
Published: July 25, 2008

Hong Kong, China — In light of China’s increasing military build-up, Taiwan’s strategic security can only be guaranteed under three conditions: solid and appropriate national defense build-up, a government that does not indulge in stimulating or appeasing the Chinese communist regime, and an effective strategic alliance with the United States and Japan that provides unwavering political and military support from the two countries. All three conditions are of equal and vital importance for Taiwan’s security.

In the first four years of new Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou’s leadership, some progress may be made in easing the cross-straits predicament, primarily concerning procedures such as the three links – postal, trade and transport services – and personnel visits. However, no breakthrough can be expected on the security issue.

At the heart of the problem is the two sides’ different understanding of the so-called “one-China consensus.” As long as China refuses to recognize the existence of the Republic of China as a political entity, the chronic crisis in cross-strait relations is unlikely to change. The “two-state theory” raised by former President Lee Teng-hui – that China and Taiwan have separate and equal status – might once again be raised and impact the stability of cross-strait relations.

In fact, the mainland policy of the ruling Kuomintang has been called a “Lee Teng-hui route without Lee Teng-hui.”

How will the Chinese government take on Ma Ying-jeou’s “no reunification, no independence, no arms race” policy? As a Chinese strategist stated in a televised debate with the author, China is very concerned about the KMT’s position of “stalling” and “maintaining the status quo” on the issue of reunification. Delaying tactics are not substantially different from Taiwan independence, he claimed.

China will not tolerate the long-term existence of “two Chinas.” Without a legitimate excuse for its military expansion – such as “preventing Taiwan’s independence” – China will shift its position to “containing an independent Taiwan.” In other words, China’s pace of military expansion will not slow down due to Ma Ying-jeou’s presidency in Taiwan.

Any doubt about this will surely be dispelled when China releases its new military budget figures during the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in March 2009.

As a precondition for signing any peace agreement with China, Ma Ying-jeou has demanded that China withdraw its missiles directed at Taiwan. Militarily, as a matter of fact, withdrawing the ground-to-ground short-range missiles currently deployed in Fujian, Jiangxi and Guangdong provinces would have little practical value in easing the military threat to Taiwan; it would take only 24 to72 hours to redeploy these missiles. Unless China destroys all its short-range ballistic missiles with a range less than 600 kilometers, Taiwan’s basic security will not be guaranteed.

Meanwhile, the worries of neighboring countries about China are on the rise. Therefore, the top priority of the new KMT government is to strengthen its strategic relations with the United States and Japan and rebuild strategic mutual trust. This kind of trust between Taiwan, the United States and Japan has been greatly jeopardized over the last eight years.

In rebuilding its defense capability, Taiwan should first of all implement the three major arms procurement policies that the KMT government proposed eight years ago.

The first priority should be the issue of importing Patriot III interceptors from the United States during the first four years of Ma Ying-jeou’s administration. At the same time, Taiwan should get to work on procuring the new F-16 block 52 fighters and eight submarines it has ordered from the United States.

If there is any room for bargaining, it would be best to replace the planned F-16s with F-15s. Looking at procurements of combat aircraft by Japan, South Korea and Singapore, one can see the trend toward twin-engine heavy fighters as the dominant aerial combat platform. In addition, the need for anti-armored vehicle landing measures should be taken into consideration, and plans made for either the indigenous production or procurement of equipment including combat helicopters.

Another priority area is accelerating the research and development of indigenous advanced weapon systems and reinforcing effective deterrence measures. This could include the production of more cruise missiles, long-range air-to-ground precision strike weapons and ship-to-ship and ship-to-ground precision attack capabilities.

Taiwan should also invest in the research and development of ground-to-ground missiles with the maximum strike range allowed by international treaties, to be used as a political card when negotiating with the United States on arms procurement. Moreover, Taiwan must manufacture more multi-role offshore patrol vehicles and advanced stealth-missile swift boats.

At the same time, Taiwan needs to upgrade the fighters currently in service in its air force, especially its IDF and F-16 fleets. These fighters should be capable of engaging in multiple combat missions or becoming multi-role fighters.

As for the surface warships it has currently in service, Taiwan should follow the practice of Japan and employ Link 16 communications systems to integrate their combat capabilities with the ability to engage in information and electronic warfare. In particular, both the La Fayette and Perry class frigates have been in service in the Taiwanese navy for more than 10 years and are approaching the time for drastic upgrading.

Taiwan should also increase investment in its intelligence agencies. The budgets of the National Security Agency and the Military Intelligence Agency must be greatly increased if Taiwan wants to gain the upper hand in human intelligence in the Taiwan Strait.

Taiwan’s annual military spending of 3 percent of GDP seems to be insufficient to achieve the goal of rejuvenating the military on all fronts and ensuring its national defense. To that end, an increased military budget is necessary.

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(Andrei Chang is editor-in-chief of Kanwa Defense Review Monthly, registered in Toronto, Canada.)

More Chinese submarines in South China Sea

By ANDREI CHANG
Column: Military Might
Published: May 09, 2008

Hong Kong, China — Over the past 20 years, China's military investment has grown faster than any other country. The bamboo curtain that formerly enveloped the country has become a copper curtain.

Furthermore, China has become more difficult to negotiate with than even the former Soviet Union. The tactic of deceiving one's opponent or competitor is deeply engrained in traditional Chinese culture, not only an aspect of communist morality. The ability to deceive one's opponent is evidence of cleverness, not something to feel guilty about, and is a traditional strategy in the Chinese art of war.

This is a basic, uncompromising difference between countries with a Christian or Buddhist culture and China's traditional culture, mixed with communist "ethics."

For example, the Chinese navy is enlarging its underground submarine facility and has started to deploy more 094 SSBNs (nuclear ballistic missile submarines), 091 SSNs (nuclear attack submarines), and KILO 636M SS (diesel powered submarines) in Sanya city on the southern island of Hainan.

Since 2002 China has constructed the largest submarine underground tunnel in Sanya. Satellite photos taken in February revealed that one of the latest 094 SSBNs had entered the new Yalong Naval Base at Sanya. It is too early to say whether it is permanently deployed there, or whether it is just a stopover.

Kanwa Defense Review Monthly has obtained photos from a special correspondent which show that not only the 094 SSBN, but also the new KILO 636M diesel submarines are located at the Sanya submarine base.

The Chinese navy has been enhancing its submarine fleet power in the South China Sea, presumably to block Taiwan and Japan in case of war, and also to secure sea routes in the Indian Ocean to protect its oil shipments from the Middle East. Of course, the submarine fleet is also a threat to South Asian countries that have territorial disputes with China.

Despite the fact that the 094 SSBN was already in Sanya, the April edition of China Defense Daily, an official publication of the People's Liberation Army, denied this fact and published fabricated photos of the submarine it claimed had been created and posted on the Internet to make it appear that the 094 SSBN was in Sanya. The China Defense Daily went to the trouble of explaining in detail how the fake Internet photos were made.

The article criticized Kanwa Defense Review for propagating the "China threat" theory by reporting "false" news about the submarines.

It is widely believed among Western military observers that the PLA has used many fabricated photos and news reports to support its psychological war against the outside world over a long period of time.

The author had the opportunity in February to discuss with Indian and U.S. naval experts in New Delhi the reasons for the appearance of the 094 SSBN in Sanya. The Indian and U.S. experts believe that the submarine was not engaged in tests at sea. Naturally, the Indian expert wondered if the 094 deployment was aimed at India. The U.S. expert speculated that the submarine may have been deployed there because the waters in the South China Sea are deep and make it more difficult to detect the 094.

The U.S. expert agreed with the author's analysis that the submarine's key strike targets would be Hawaii and the southern parts of the United States, should the 094 be deployed at Sanya. The Indian expert suggested that if the 094 was indeed deployed at Sanya, it would be easier to disperse the No. 1 Nuclear Submarine Flotilla and No. 2 Nuclear Submarine Flotilla. It would be difficult to destroy the two submarine flotillas simultaneously in the event of war.

The Indian expert also indicated that Indian observers have not noticed any PLA nuclear submarines or conventional submarines entering the Indian Ocean in recent years. The author's analysis is that a major part of the PLA Navy's attention has been placed on preparations for a "military struggle" against Taiwan.

A submarine design expert from the Russian Rubin Design Bureau said in New Delhi that his company was surprised at the PLA Navy's fast-paced construction of the 094 SSBN and "Yuan" Class diesel-powered submarine (SS).

"It was a very fast construction pace, but the quality seems less than perfect," he said. The overall design of the 094 is coarse, and the tall SLBM cabin will inevitably increase resistance in the water and create substantial noise. Meanwhile, the number of drainage holes on the hull has been carefully calculated and the holes look closable.

The Russian expert, who has designed different models of submarines, indicated that from the images released so far, the 094 seems to have been equipped with towed array sonar. The assessment of the Russian expert is consistent with the author's earlier judgment. The March 2008 issue of Kanwa Defense Review mentioned China's hastiness in building and designing the 094, believing that it reflected the dated mindset of the Chinese submarine designers. The conclusion is that the design of the 094 SSBN may be compared to the concept of the Yankee-II SSBN built in the 1970s by the Soviet navy.

There have been disputes among experts at the Rubin Design Bureau concerning the exterior structure of the Yuan SS. Some experts believe that the design plagiarized the features of the KILO 636, therefore physically the Yuan looks like an imitation version of the KILO. This assessment is understandable.

Other experts from the Rubin Design Bureau have pointed out that the design of the Yuan's hull plagiarized the KILO design, and the design of the tail rudder borrowed the concept of the Amur Class diesel submarine.

China's plagiarism in the design of the Yuan has given rise to heated disputes within the Russian military industry. With its full economic recovery in recent years, Russia is leaning closer to Western practices in many aspects and Russian society has begun to pay greater attention to the importance of intellectual property rights. This overall trend has started to have some impact on the Russian military industry.

The case of the J-11B fighter, whose design is largely copied from Russia, also resulted in heated disputes over China's plagiarism of Russian weapon systems. Western military observers in New Delhi pointed out that Russia had exported to China intact KILO 636 submarines in a deal that did not involve any technology transfer. Although the case of the Yuan SS is different from that of the J-11B, it may very likely have some impact on the issue of technological restrictions concerning Russia's arms exports to China.

One thing certain is that Russia and China have not initiated new rounds of negotiations on the purchase of more KILO or new generation Amur submarines. This means China has no further need for KILOs, unless the Yuan's performance is considered substandard by the PLA Navy. Currently, two Yuan class submarines have been launched and are undertaking sea tests.

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(Andrei Chang is editor-in-chief of Kanwa Defense Review Monthly, registered in Toronto Canada.)

Legacy of late Fukuda resurrected

By HIROSHI YAMAZAKI
UPI Correspondent
Published: March 03, 2008

Tokyo, Japan — A legacy of Takeo Fukuda, the late father of current Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, is being revived through dialogue between former politicians and religious leaders, says a veteran diplomat.

Nagao Hyodo, former Japanese ambassador to Poland and Belgium, said Thursday there is resurgent momentum toward the United Nations' adoption of a "Universal Declaration of Human Responsibilities," proposed by a group of statesmen in 1998. The draft declaration was submitted to the U.N. General Assembly in that year to mark the 50th anniversary of the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

The document was the brainchild of the "Old Boys' Summit," formally known as the InterAction Council, an annual forum of former heads of state and government that had been meeting since 1983. It was originally proposed by the late Fukuda.

Hyodo, a seasoned expert on Russian affairs, was the keynote speaker at a forum of diplomats, intellectuals and peace activists organized by the Japanese Chapter of the Universal Peace Federation in Tokyo. He explained to the audience, including nine ambassadors resident in Tokyo, how the declaration of responsibilities was formulated by renowned world statesmen and submitted by major nations, including India and China, to the United Nations, but killed by the major Western democracies.

While the human rights declaration has been enshrined as a solemn watchdog over potential abusers, the world continues to observe grave violations of the rights it seeks to protect. Something more must be injected into public policy, the old boy politicians say. Through yearly deliberations, they have ended up discussing universal concepts of ethics, hence coming up with the need for human responsibilities to balance human rights. Hyodo calls it an "invisible, broader concept of human security."

After the senior Fukuda passed away in 1995, Helmut Schmit, former German chancellor and one of the active members of the OB Summit, took over the initiative and eventually compiled the 19-article draft on responsibilities.

The preamble says the declaration "builds on the wisdom of religious leaders and sages down the ages who have warned that freedom without acceptance of responsibility can destroy the freedom itself, whereas when rights and responsibilities are balanced, then freedom is enhanced and a better world can be created."

When the document was made public, however, human rights activists vehemently opposed it, fearing that it would undermine their achievements. Reflecting on their anxiety, Hyodo said, "Major democracies such as the USA and Europe killed the draft."

But he is again upbeat about its prospect, as efforts by UNESCO, begun in 1997, and the Davos Conference in 2007, are directed toward formulating some sort of universal ethics.

In Hyodo's opinion, the interfaith movement is an important paradigm in establishing a universally acceptable ethical code of conduct. He recalled that the late Fukuda was especially concerned about the religious factors behind many conflicts. Thus he took the initiative in 1987 to hold a special assembly in Rome, Italy, among world religious leaders and OB Summit members.

This sacred-secular formula has been repeated, judged even more important after 9/11, leading to a conference dubbed "Bridging the Divide" in 2003 in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Based on Thursday's conference, Hyodo commended some of the UPF's propositions, including the setting up of a permanent interfaith institution and promotion of interfaith education. "UPF is doing its work in exactly the same direction (as the OB Summit)," he remarked.

An African ambassador urged the forum to deepen the debate into more real issues, such as dealing with poverty. Another ambassador questioned the usefulness of a code of conduct in governing the ongoing war on resources, which he said is behind many conflicts in Africa these days.

The UPF is a non-governmental organization in special consultative status with the U.N. Economic and Social Council. According to Katsumi Ohtsuka, chairman of the Japan chapter, the group is "committed to peace-building, human development and good governance through dialogue, education and service."

Seoul moving to 'restore' U.S. alliance

Published: March 25, 2008
By LEE JONG-HEON
UPI Correspondent

SEOUL, South Korea, South Korea's diplomatic chief left for the United States Tuesday on a mission to restore the two countries' strained security alliance and boost momentum on ending North Korea's nuclear drive ahead of a planned Washington visit by Seoul's new president.

Officials here described the visit by Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan as marking the new government's "first stride toward upgrading the alliance" with the United States, which was damaged during the previous left-leaning administration.

President Lee Myung-bak's diplomatic team has been working out a "future vision for the alliance" between the two counties, in a major project to carry out his pledge to build stronger ties with the United States.

Details of the alliance blueprint will be discussed during Yu's five-day trip to the United States. A diplomatic source said the alliance could be expanded beyond the Korean peninsula to tackle global issues, such as anti-terrorism and the spread of democracy.

The alliance vision may be announced when Lee gets together with U.S. President George W. Bush for summit talks at Camp David April 18-19. Lee will be the first South Korean leader to be invited to Camp David, a presidential retreat in Maryland, reflecting warming bilateral ties following Lee's inauguration a month ago.

The Foreign Ministry said the foremost goal for Yu's trip is "preparing for a successful South Korea-U.S. summit." "There is a need to fine-tune details for the South Korea-U.S. summit," Yu told reporters before leaving for Washington.

The alliance overture was boosted as a group of veterans and conservative civic groups called for stronger military ties with the United States to deter security threats from North Korea. "The South Korea-U.S. alliance is the best means to deter a war on the Korean peninsula," the group said in a joint statement.

As a way to bolster bilateral ties, Yu plans to discuss a free trade deal which has yet to be ratified by legislatures in Seoul and Washington, during Wednesday's meeting with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. South Korea and the United States signed the free trade accord in June after 10 months of negotiations but still await ratification, with strong opposition from both the South Korean and U.S. Congress.

U.S. lawmakers have threatened to block the deal, the biggest for the United States since the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, unless South Korea fully lifts the ban on U.S. beef imports. U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Alexander Vershbow has warned of "negative consequences" for Seoul-Washington ties if they fail to ratify the free trade deal. But if approved, the free trade pact would be billed as the most significant event in South Korean-U.S. relations since the two nations signed their military accord in 1953.

The South Korean diplomatic chief also said he would discuss with Rice over how to revive the stalled process to disarm North Korea.

"I plan to have consultations on various ways to resume the six-way (nuclear) talks at an early date, in consideration of both the U.S. domestic political situation, such as the presidential election, and the geopolitical conditions in the region," Yu said,

Three months have passed since North Korea missed an end-of-2007 deadline to give a complete accounting of its nuclear programs as called for in a major six-nation nuclear deal reached in February, 2007.

But the six-party talks on dismantling the North's atomic programs, which involve the United States, the two Koreas, China, Japan and Russia, still remain deadlocked due to lingering suspicions about North Korea's uranium-based weapons program and nuclear proliferation to Syria.

Yu, who traveled to Beijing last week to woo China's influence on North Korea, called for Pyongyang to move quickly, warning time was running short ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

"Looking at the schedule of U.S. domestic politics, (Washington) would virtually take its hands off the issue once the vacation season starts in early August," he said. The United States will hold its presidential election in November and its next president will take office in January 2009.

"A complete and correct declaration (of the North's nuclear programs) is a key to moving to the next stage," he said.

Yu plans to meet Defense Secretary Robert Gates and White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley before returning home on Saturday.

Japan's defense preparedness

By ANDREI CHANG
Column: Military Might
Published: February 02, 2008

TOKYO, Japan, UPI contributor Andrei Chang interviewed Japan's Vice Minister of Defense Kohei Masuda recently on issues related to Japan's defense preparedness, China's military, and regional alliances. Excerpts from the interview follow.

Q: Taiwan will hold its presidential election and referendum on application for U.N. membership under the name of Taiwan. How does Japan look at this? Will China use force against Taiwan?

Masuda: It is difficult to predict the future. Regarding the Taiwan Strait issue, the position of the Japanese government is that we hope all parties involved will resort to peaceful means to resolve the problem. Despite a series of incidents and moves recently, we do not think that China will use military force in the immediate future.

Q: Suppose very unfortunate things should happen, for example economic sanctions or small-scale military conflict, would that be considered a "situation in areas surrounding Japan" to which Japan would respond?

Masuda: Our official answer to this question is that a "situation in areas surrounding Japan" is defined as one that may have serious impact on Japan's peace and security. Suppose the situation that you mentioned does take place, and its development is in line with the above definition, then that will be "a situation in areas surrounding Japan"… if that kind of incident does take place, we will not immediately consider it as such a situation or not such a situation.

Q: Please accept my congratulations on the success of the interception test of SM3 Navy Theater Missile Defense. Is the development of this system directed at North Korea's ballistic missile only, or does it also cover other ballistic missiles in the region, including those of China?

Masuda: Japan's development of the defense capability against ballistic missiles is not directed at any specific country. Its objective is to deal with the scenario of the further spread of ballistic missiles and to give Japan the corresponding defense capability. The program has been under way for almost 10 years. The Japan Air Self-Defense Force is now equipped with Patriot III Interceptors, and the Aegis ships of the Maritime Self-Defense Force have also started to have the defense capability against ballistic missiles. Neither of them is aimed at any specific country.

Q: Exporting arms is an activity of a "normal nation." After the Defense Agency was upgraded to the Defense Ministry, is it reconsidering the possibility of exporting arms to other countries? About half a year ago, Taiwan's vice defense minister expressed an interest in acquiring weapon systems from Japan during an interview with me.

Masuda: There is no plan on the part of Japan to push forward this policy. Within Japan, there are all types of considerations on this issue, including not exporting any arms, maintaining the status quo, and there are factions that either support exports of arms or object to the sales of arms. As a result, there is no way to conclude that Japan will never export arms or Japan will immediately lift arms export restrictions. Realistically, the ultimate spirit of our three principles of arms exports is to discourage an arms race or military disputes.

Q: China's military transparency is an issue often brought up by the Japanese Defense Ministry. How does the ministry expect China to react to this?

Masuda: Japan's national defense spending is publicized to the whole world every year. If China can do the same thing and reveal details of its spending, Japan will be satisfied. China has published its National Defense White Paper, but it has to be admitted that the amount of information contained in it is much smaller compared with our National Defense White Paper. Meanwhile, China also needs to give a more explicit explanation of the objectives of its defense build-up and development of military power.

Q: My understanding is that China has been building up its navy and air force at a very fast pace. Does Japan feel threatened or concerned?

Masuda: We can put it aside whether China's military build-up is a threat or concern to Japan. What is important to us is the purpose of such build-up. As you just mentioned, China has been building up its military power at very fast pace, and if the purpose of such actions is not clear, we will naturally feel concerned.

Q: China's explanation is that it is aimed at containing the pro-independence forces in Taiwan. Do you think this explanation is convincing?

Masuda: From what we know about the pace and contents of China's military build-up, I cannot help saying it is questionable. In my personal view, and I hope this will not offend China, with such a pace of build-up, I wonder if they have a national strategy or national defense strategy in a real sense, or if they are only satisfying what the different factions within the People's Liberation Army want.

To put it into more extreme terms, is it because of competition among different factions within the PLA? Under the circumstances where the overall purpose and strategies of military build-up are not yet clear, I have an impression that the PLA's different factions are just striving to get better equipment for their own interest. This is only my personal impression, and of course I hope this is not the case.

Q: Japan's military build-up seems to be slow. For instance, the program to upgrade the F-15J -- even with the budget doubled, it will involve no more than 30 F-15J fighters. In contrast, China is now upgrading 70 SUKHOI fighters.

Masuda: This is mainly because of a tight budget. Also, it was not because we compared with China's SUKHOI program that we have decided to upgrade just 30 F-15Js. The decision was made on the foundation of the existing equipment in service. Just as Defense Minister Ishiba mentioned earlier, China has a much broader territory with a much longer land border with other countries so that it is not unimaginable that China's air force capability and combat aircraft fleet could be double or more that of Japan when it defends itself from invasion into its air space.

Q: You mentioned that if an Asian NATO were established in the future, Japan would welcome China joining it. But as you are aware, NATO was established on the basis of shared democratic values among the member countries.

Masuda: Talking about shared values, from our perspective, once you bring up the issues of freedom and democracy it will be hard for China to join such an organization. But China is a country with huge influence in this region, and if China is excluded in such a multi-party organization, it will be very detrimental to regional security and order. It will be perceived as an anti-China organization, which will in return fuel regional tension.

Personally, I think we should look for the shared values that China also can share, and should make effort to find ways to deal with the issue. For instance, maintaining regional security and order can be a shared value. China indeed hopes to reinforce its navy and to build aircraft carriers so as to protect its lifelines on the sea, while Japan also has such lifelines on the sea. If the two countries share the same lifelines in the same region, we can consider undertaking joint protection. This can be a long-term prospect that the two sides can discuss in the future.

Q: Could Russia be accepted into such an Asian NATO?

Masuda: We can accept China based on shared values, and of course Russia can be accepted for the same reason.

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(Andrei Chang is editor-in-chief of Kanwa Defense Review Monthly, registered in Toronto Canada.)