THE ASAHI SHIMBUN2010/1/1
The global landscape has changed dramatically during the past 10 years. The past decade has witnessed some world-shaking events, such as the Sept. 11 terror attacks against the United States, two wars that stemmed from that, and the harrowing global economic crisis. One or two decades from now, what will the world look like?
China may become an economic power matching the United States. In addition to the United States, China and greater Europe, emerging economic powers will play a larger role in forming the new world order. While regional conflicts are likely to continue, countries will become more interdependent, possibly paving the way for a more stable world.
There are, of course, opposite scenarios as well. The world in 2025 as predicted by the U.S. National Intelligence Council presents a gloomy picture. Countries like China, India and Russia will band together in opposing the United States, spreading protectionism and arms races. Or, an energy crisis will stop the development of emerging economic powers, triggering military conflicts over resources.
Amid all kinds of tectonic shifts that will continue to take place, what should Japan do to maintain peace and prosperity and contribute to stabilizing the world?
In his foreign policy speech in Tokyo in mid-November, U.S. President Barack Obama referred repeatedly to "the Japanese miracle" and pointed out the miracle--Japan's rapid economic growth after World War II--has spread throughout Asia, setting the stage for prosperity in the region, which is now the main growth engine for the global economy. Obama also stressed that U.S. involvement in the region centered on its alliance with Japan has made that possible.
Alliance as a safeguard
The alliance is a rare combination of two countries--the world's top military power and an exclusively defense-oriented country and also the world's two leading economic powers at both ends of the Pacific Ocean. This alliance marks its 50th anniversary this year. Looking back on its history, we can say without doubt the alliance has worked in an effective way that has made Obama proud.
Tokyo's decision to astutely combine the bilateral security treaty committing the United States to the defense of Japan with this country's war-renouncing Article 9 of the Constitution has given the Japanese people a great sense of security.
North Korea has declared itself to be a nuclear power, while China is building up its military muscle at an alarming pace. There is no prospect of immediately establishing a reliable security framework.
Washington's Asia-Pacific strategy wouldn't work without the U.S. military presence in Japan. Considering Japan's financial support, it is safe to say that the alliance is a cornerstone for the United States as well as for Japan. It is not necessarily correct to say the bilateral treaty is one-sided simply because Japan is not obliged to defend the United States.
What does the bilateral alliance imply for other Asian nations? Due to the alliance and the Article 9, they don't have to worry about Japan heading for independent defense and nuclear armament. It is expected that the United States will keep China in check so that Beijing will remain on a path of "peaceful rise" while avoiding military confrontation with China. The involvement of China is essential for the region to achieve political stability.
If used wisely, based on common understanding that allied nations sometimes conflict over national interests, the Japan-U.S. alliance will maintain its importance and benefits.
Public support for the alliance
The problem is that this vital alliance is not a given. That's the point that has been brought to the fore by the change of government in Japan.
Behind the issue of the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma is the grim reality of Okinawa Prefecture, where an overwhelming concentration of U.S. military bases has created myriad problems for local residents with little done to alleviate the situation.
A series of past secret agreements concerning the bilateral alliance has come to light. Those deals resulted from a contradiction between U.S. military strategies and Japan's policies. Even if we admit that they were required by the times, a democratic government should not continue to conceal them from the public. They are not past history. Public attention is focused on whether they are still legally binding.
It is apparently urgent for Tokyo and Washington to squarely face these issues and settle them in a way that is most acceptable to the people in both countries.
This is especially urgent for Japan, where our political leaders have long shunned serious national debate on military and cost-related issues, which are fundamentals of the alliance. Japan-U.S. relations are strained. This is due partly to the inept diplomacy of the administration of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. But this is a good opportunity to discuss from a long-term perspective the importance and difficulty in maintaining the alliance.
The alliance for new order in Asia
The Japan-U.S. alliance has also been serving as a foundation for Japan's economic growth by guaranteeing access by Japanese companies to the U.S. market in the postwar era. Now, however, the value of trade between Japan and China is much greater than that of Japan-U.S. trade. Without economic ties with China and other Asian nations, Japan will not be able to survive.
However, it is wrong to ask to choose from two, Asia or the United States. What is more important for Japan is to make use of the Japan-U.S. alliance for the benefit of the whole of Asia.
In coming years, Asian nations will build multiple layers of cooperative bilateral and multilateral relations, centered on economic areas. In the future, the creation of an Asian community will be discussed as a realistic agenda.
The presence of the United States, which is deepening its mutual dependence on China, is indispensible for all of Asia to enhance political stability. Japan-U.S. ties will continue to be vital for regional stability.
There are also a heap of global challenges demanding cooperative and well-coordinated efforts by the two nations. They include building peace in failed countries like Afghanistan, working together toward "a world without nuclear weapons" and dealing with conflicts and poverty due to harmful climate change. The Japan-U.S. alliance will help Japan play a role in a wider range of areas.
That, however, doesn't change the fact that the bilateral alliance is based on a security arrangement. Tokyo and Washington must swiftly secure close and effective communications between political leaders of both countries over assessments of the global strategic environment, the minimum necessary deterrence and the burden-sharing for such deterrence.
The alliance provides stronger bonds in various areas other than military cooperation. The benefits that the bilateral alliance will continue to bring are far greater than the political and other costs of maintaining the alliance.
A battle of words over the question of whether Japan should merely follow the United States or seek a bilateral alliance on an equal footing is meaningless. What politicians should talk about is a grand vision for using the bilateral alliance for the benefits of Asia and the rest of the world while strengthening it.
--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 1(IHT/Asahi: January 1,2010)
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