Keeping politics in the family is hurting Japan

Photo: Junichiro Koizumi: reformer, to a point.

LETTER FROM JAPAN

By William Pesek, Bloomberg News
Published: March 5, 2009

TOKYO: The most cynical moment in recent Japanese politics featured the nation's top reformer.

It was in September, when Junichiro Koizumi announced his retirement from politics. As prime minister from 2001 to 2006, he took on the corporate establishment, shook up the economy and called for new politics.

Then Koizumi got to the real point of the heavily attended news conference: Oh, here's my son, Shinjiro Koizumi, who should succeed me in the job.

It was a numbing moment for observers who once saw Koizumi as the agent of change that the world's second-biggest economy desperately needs. It was a stark reminder that even those supposedly committed to improving Japan's situation treat the government like a mom-and-pop shop.

Parents owning fruit stands, shoe factories or trading firms often hope to pass the torch to their kids. They don't call it a family business for nothing.

Since Koizumi left the top job in September 2006, Japan has had three prime ministers, none of them up to the task. Stress did in Shinzo Abe (September 2006-September 2007), political gridlock sank Yasuo Fukuda (September 2007-September 2008) and widespread voter dissatisfaction will soon nudge Taro Aso from power.

Abe, Fukuda and Aso have something important in common: they are part of family dynasties.

It's a key characteristic of Japanese history, from the emperor's 1,400-year lineage to the father-son inheritance of Kabuki theater roles. The cabinet chosen by Aso, the grandson of one former prime minister and the son-in-law of another, fits a similar pattern.

Among Aso's original lineup, descendents of former lawmakers took up 11 of the 17 positions. That beat Fukuda's eight such appointments. Even Koizumi, who in 2005 used outsider candidates to win 68 percent of the seats in the lower house, turned around and gave nine cabinet posts to legislators' relatives.

The penchant for recycling family members is holding Japan back at a time when it needs to be planning for the future. Nothing short of a political earthquake will alter this dynamic.

Japan's obsession with seniority doesn't help. Lawmakers do not matter until they rise through the ranks decade after decade.

Once true power is granted, that politician has been co-opted by a system that serves itself, not the people.

Seniority matters everywhere. Yet the idea of a 47-year-old junior lawmaker akin to the U.S. president, Barack Obama, becoming Japan's prime minister is unthinkable. Perhaps it's possible when that smart, articulate Japanese Obama is 67.

Not that Obama is sure to succeed, but Japan cannot wait 20 years for a fresh-faced leader who might think differently from the status quo. The country's massive public debt load, fast-aging population, shaky pension system and waning competitiveness can't wait that long.

A fast-deepening recession raises the stakes. Even the vaunted Toyota Motor is seeking government loans. The government plans to tap its foreign-exchange reserves to help a state-run bank increase loans to companies operating abroad.

Japan has formidable problems, and its leaders are in over their heads.

Aso isn't focused on the economy, but on keeping his party in power. Kaoru Yosano, the new finance minister, is in damage-control mode, not looking-five-years-ahead mode.

Yosano's job isn't an easy one. He must clean up after his predecessor's embarrassing, job-ending performance in Rome last month. Shoichi Nakagawa's claim that he wasn't drunk at a Group of 7 news conference didn't pass muster.

Rather than grasping at new ideas, Yosano is opening Japan's tired playbook. He ordered a study into ways to bolster stocks with government funds. It's better to do the opposite: implement sound policies that cheer investors.

The Liberal Democratic Party's focus on bloodline over talent and competence helps explain why Japan is where it is today. The party that has run the nation for all but 10 months since 1955 is devoid of vision.

The newspaper Sankei polled voters soon after Aso became prime minister in September. Fifty-eight percent agreed "it's a problem" that prime ministers are descendents of former lawmakers.

Family politics aren't unique. Look no further than the Bushes of the United States, the Gandhis of India, the Kirchners of Argentina, the Bhuttos of Pakistan, the Macapagals of the Philippines and the Sukarnos of Indonesia.

Japan's we-are-family governing system has a counterpart in the private sector known as "amakudari." Literally translated as "descent from heaven," the practice hands out executive posts to former public officials. In other words, you scratch my back when you're in government, and I'll scratch yours with a cushy job when you're ready.

The corruption that amakudari engenders is one reason it took Japanese banks so long to come clean on the magnitude of their bad loans in the 1990s. It also explains why government policies are skewed toward huge, politically connected companies, not startups that might reinvigorate the economy.

Picking leaders based on merit would pay great dividends in Japan.

Instead, it's all about who your mom and dad are.

Japanese opposition aide arrested over donations

The Associated Press
Published: March 3, 2009

TOKYO: Japanese prosecutors raided the office Tuesday of opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa, a leading candidate to become the next prime minister, and arrested his top aide on suspicion of accepting dubious donations.

Prosecutors in suits were shown marching into the Democratic Party of Japan leader's office in Tokyo during a nationally televised raid. The prosecutors office said Takanori Okubo, Ozawa's senior aide, was arrested on suspicion of violating regulations on political contributions.

Tokyo prosecutors allege that Ozawa's political funding organization Rikuzankai received 21 million yen ($216,000) in illegal donations between 2003-07 from two company executives at Nishimatsu Construction Co. Ltd. The two executives were also arrested Tuesday.

Democratic Party legislator Yukio Hatoyama defended the party's leader. "Mr. Ozawa has said there are no legal problems. We suspect a conspiracy, and we will fight it," he told NTV television.

Many political analysts expect unpopular Prime Minister Taro Aso and his long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party to lose the next general election, which must take place by Sept. 10. Ozawa has received more support than Aso in recent voter polls.

The Liberal Democratic Party has ruled Japan for most of the past 50 years.

It was unclear what effect the raid and arrests would have on the Democratic Party's electoral chances.

Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University in Tokyo, said the case may lead to Ozawa's resignation. "The arrest of his top aide is serious, and it would be difficult for him to stay as party leader and steer the upcoming elections," he said.

The government said the opposition party needs to explain the situation.

"The people are closely watching this," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura. "We demand an explanation."

If convicted, Okubo, who is also accused of faking reports on political funding, could receive up to five years in prison or a fine of up to 1 million yen.

The construction officials face up to three years in prison or fines of up to 500,000 yen for violating laws that ban company donations to political groups.

Japanese party's disarray raises questions

By Martin Fackler
Published: February 19, 2009

TOKYO: With mounting troubles threatening the brief administration of Japan's unpopular prime minister, Taro Aso, time also appears to be running out for his Liberal Democratic Party and its half-century monopoly on political power in Japan.

Aso's frequent verbal gaffes have offended everyone from doctors to kindergarten mothers. A prominent lawmaker has defected from his party, and a former prime minister publicly rebuked him. Even his scheme to boost economic growth by giving away at least $130 in cash per person has been panned by the public as a cynical vote-winning gesture.

The latest blow came Tuesday, when his finance minister resigned after appearing to be in a stupor during a news conference over the weekend at an economic summit meeting in Rome. The minister, Shoichi Nakagawa, who admitted to a glass of wine over lunch, blamed the strange performance, widely replayed on YouTube, on too much cold medicine.

The embarrassing debacle, and Aso's tardiness in seeking Nakagawa's resignation, have shaken a five-month-old administration that is already one of the least popular in postwar Japanese history. This week, panicked members of Aso's own party began calling on him to step aside so the Liberal Democrats could install a new, more appealing leader before an upcoming general election for the lower house of Parliament.

"The prime minister no longer has the ability, trust or integrity to manage the current political crisis," Masazumi Gotoda, a Liberal Democratic lawmaker, told reporters on Wednesday while making a public appeal for Aso to resign.

Even before the resignation, Aso's approval ratings had already dipped into the single digits. An opinion poll published Feb. 10 by the Yomiuri Shimbun showed the largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan, had an approval rating of 28.3 percent, surpassing the Liberal Democrats' 26.8 percent.

A loss in the lower-house election, which must be called by mid-September, would remove the Liberal Democrats from Japan's helm for only the second time since the party's founding in 1955. The party lost power for 11 months in 1993.

But many lawmakers and political analysts say pushing aside Aso could also backfire for the party. Aso would become the third prime minister in less than three years to step down amid dismal approval ratings. That could further damage public confidence in the Liberal Democrats, who are already reeling from recent scandals including the loss of millions of pension records, which outraged this rapidly aging nation.

"The party is in a dilemma because it could lose either way," said Atsuo Ito, an independent political analyst.

This depth of its predicament has many lawmakers and political analysts wondering if the party is not finally on its last legs.

The Liberal Democrats have been one of the longest-ruling political parties in the democratic world, founded to keep Japan firmly in the American camp against the Soviet Union, while focusing on export-led growth and building up the country with infrastructure projects.

But in recent years, the party has increasingly looked like an exhausted relic from the Cold War, say political analysts and lawmakers. The Liberal Democrats have seemed unable to chart a fresh course for a nation facing chronic low economic growth and the new challenges of a declining birth rate and graying population. Instead, the party appears stuck in its old ways, promising tens of billions in new public works to combat the current financial downturn, despite sinking Japan deeply into debt building roads to nowhere during its stagnant 1990s.

"Just replacing Mr. Aso is not the issue," said Tomoaki Iwai, a politics professor at Nihon University in Tokyo. "The party itself has grown obsolete."

If the Liberal Democrats do lose the upcoming elections, many analysts and lawmakers predict a radical redrawing of Japan's political lines, as lawmakers defect to create new parties or join the Democratic Party, the presumptive victor. Many say there is a chance that the Liberal Democrats could even break up.

"The Liberal Democratic Party was a party bound together not by a shared ideology, but simply by the fact that it held power," said Yoshimi Watanabe, a former minister of administrative reform who quit the party last month, saying Aso was not committed to change. "If it loses power, there will be nothing to hold the party together."

Aso's backers point out that this is not the first time that people have predicted the Liberal Democrats' demise, saying that both Aso and the party can still bounce back. They say voters will warm to the cash handouts and other planned stimulus measures like a lowering of highway tolls. They are also counting on Japan's cautious electorate to shy away from actually voting in an untried opposition, though they admit that the Liberal Democrats must also find a new message to woo back voters.

"The Liberal Democrats are a very flexible party, so it will adapt," said Yoshihide Suga, a lawmaker who is deputy chief of the party's election committee.

The last time someone tried to change the Liberal Democrats was a half decade ago, when the prime minister at the time, Junichiro Koizumi, vowed to save the party by destroying it. He broke the grip of the party's powerful internal factions and ended its embrace of rural voters with steep cuts in public works and the privatization of Japan's huge postal system. But analysts say Koizumi ended up crippling the party by failing to create an alternative political base.

Since Koizumi's departure in 2006, the party has appeared to drift, sliding back toward its old factional politics and reliance on the bureaucracy. Aso has only added to this sense of lost direction by seeming to flip-flop and contradict himself on crucial issues.

A flap blew up earlier this month when Aso told a parliamentary committee that he had opposed Koizumi's postal privatization plan, despite boasting a few months earlier that he had been the minister in charge of it. Koizumi, who remains a powerful presence here, dismissed Aso's remarks as "laughable."

Aso has also turned off voters by seeming to be out of touch. The wealthy scion of a concrete conglomerate, Aso boasts of drinking at posh hotel bars at a time when his constituents face growing layoffs and economic distress. He has also been mocked for his chronic misreading of characters in the written Japanese language.

"There's an unmistakable mood here that it is time to give the Democratic Party a chance," said Iwai of Nihon University. "But the Democrats have no experience running a country, so expectations aren't high there, either."

Hopes for U.S. military ties with China

By Mark McDonald and Keith Bradsher
Published: February 18, 2009

HONG KONG: The commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific said Wednesday that he hoped a visit to the region by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would lead to a resumption of high-level military exchanges with China.

"We hope she gets some traction, and we're hoping for a resumption of that dialogue," Admiral Timothy Keating, head of U.S. Pacific Command, said at a small briefing in Hong Kong.

China Daily, an official state newspaper, said on Monday that Beijing was prepared to resume a dialogue between senior military officials. The report cited a Defense Ministry spokesman, Hu Changming, who said that discussions would be kept informal.

Clinton, on her first trip abroad for President Barack Obama, was in Indonesia on Wednesday. She was scheduled to visit South Korea before arriving in Beijing on Friday.

China, angered over a major U.S. arms deal with Taiwan, broke off senior-level military exchanges with Washington last October. A defense white paper issued last month by the Chinese military said the arms sale had done "serious harm" to bilateral relations.

Keating confirmed Wednesday that there was "no question" that the weapons deal, estimated to be worth $6.5 billion, had led to a suspension of what is colloquially known as the "mil-to-mil relationship."

The Pentagon said earlier this week that a midlevel U.S. delegation would hold talks next weekend in Beijing in an attempt to resurrect a wider-ranging military cooperation.

"It's our desire to have more exchanges with the Chinese," Keating said. "We want to do more with them."

He also offered to play host to direct talks between military officials of China and Taiwan at his headquarters in Hawaii. He said an easing of tensions between the two rivals was a U.S. priority and noted that the risk of military discord was "not insignificant to those of us in the region."

The militaries of mainland China and Taiwan have had no contacts at all for many years.

President Ma Ying-jeou took office in Taiwan last May with a campaign pledge to improve economic relations with the mainland and establish confidence-building measures, like a hotline, between the military establishments on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

Although a series of economic agreements have been reached - resulting in increased tourism, trade and direct transportation between Taiwan and the mainland - the People's Liberation Army of China has shown little interest in discussions with Taiwan's military.

In an interview in Taipei last week, Ma said that economic issues were more urgent, but he noted that President Hu Jintao of China had mentioned an interest in security cooperation and confidence-building measures in a statement on Dec. 31.

"We have made our intentions known to them," Ma said, "and their positive responses have already created a more peaceful environment between the two sides in the international arena."

Chiang Pin-kung, the chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation, the semi-official institution that handles Taiwan's negotiations with the mainland, said in a separate interview last week in Taipei that the foundation had a hotline to its mainland counterpart, the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits.

Keating expressed frustration over what the U.S. military considers a continuing lack of transparency on the part of senior military officials in China. Washington remains concerned about Chinese military expansion, he said, in the development of area-denial weapons, anti-satellite operations and cyber-warfare.

Increasing patrols and farther deployments of Chinese submarines were less worrisome, Keating said, than Beijing's lack of clarity about its intentions. He described the military's recent white paper as "not as forthcoming as the Chinese think it is."

The last time he visited a senior general in Beijing, he said, he saw several telephones on the man's desk and asked for his personal phone number so they could speak directly.

"He said he didn't have a phone number yet," the admiral said, rolling his eyes. "That's frustrating."

Keating did say a military hotline had been installed between Beijing and Hawaii: "It exists now. It works now. I've used it."

The last time he rang Beijing, he said, was last May, when he alerted Chinese officials that two U.S. military cargo planes were en route to China with humanitarian aid for victims of the Sichuan earthquake.

China's goal of building one or more aircraft carriers was an ambitious one, Keating said, and he offered to give Chinese officers a tour of some American carriers.

But operating carriers at sea, he said, was difficult and expensive - "harder than they might think it will be right now."

He said U.S. naval forces "would be willing to work with Chinese aircraft carriers," just as they have cooperated with a small Chinese task force that has been operating in the pirate-infested Gulf of Aden.

"They're doing a good job," he said of the two Chinese destroyers and a supply ship. "I congratulate them on a successful deployment. It's hard to do."

Asia welcomes Clinton, and renewed attention

By Martin Fackler, Mark Landler and Choe Sang-Hun
Published: February 15, 2009

TOKYO: When Hillary Rodham Clinton visits China and other Asian nations this week in her first trip abroad as U.S. secretary of state, she will not just be breaking with the tradition that America's top diplomat visit Europe or the Middle East first.

She will also be signaling the new administration's determination to take a fresh - and less confrontational - approach to diplomacy in the region, making China and other Asian nations a higher diplomatic priority than the previous administration.

Not since Dean Rusk in the 1960s has a new secretary of state flown across the Pacific Ocean rather than the Atlantic on a first trip. Rusk was involved in diplomacy with Korea and Japan.

In her first major speech as secretary of state on Friday, Clinton sought to draw a clear line between the policies of Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush. "There has been a general feeling that perhaps we didn't pay an appropriate amount of attention to Asia over the last years," she said at the Asia Society in New York on Friday, two days before she was scheduled to depart for her trip Sunday.

Clinton also called for "rigorous and persistent engagement" not just with China but also with Japan, Indonesia and South Korea, which are also on her itinerary.

Clinton's trip comes as North Korea revs up uneasiness in the region by threatening naval skirmishes with South Korea, a U.S. ally, and engaging in what analysts and officials in the region consider possible preparations to launch a ballistic missile designed to reach as far as Alaska.

Analysts in Seoul say that such moves from North Korea are intended to put pressure on President Lee Myung Bak of South Korea to reverse his hard-line policy and to resume shipping free aid to the impoverished North, while grabbing the attention of the Obama administration.

"We will develop relations with countries that treat us friendly," Kim Yong Nam, North Korea's No. 2 leader, said Sunday during a national meeting held as part of celebrations on the eve of the 67th birthday of the supreme leader, Kim Jong Il.

In recent months, North Korea has increased its rhetoric against Seoul, calling Lee a "pro-U.S. traitor," vowing an "all-out confrontational posture" and canceling all nonaggression agreements with the South. At the same time, it has held out an olive branch to Obama, voicing its willingness to engage in bilateral talks with Washington to extract economic and political concessions.

Kim Yong Nam, who serves as North Korea's ceremonial head of state, continued the North's oratory against Lee on Sunday, urging all Koreans to deal "an iron hammer blow to anti-unification forces in South Korea that are bringing the catastrophe of a nuclear war."

When Clinton meets with Lee and other South Korean leaders in Seoul later this week, they will discuss the difficult task of how to bring North Korea back to talks on ending its nuclear weapons programs while reversing the rapidly chilling relations between the two Koreas.

Meanwhile, in Japan, Clinton's first stop, her visit has been welcomed as a sign that the Obama administration will not neglect Tokyo, one of Washington's oldest allies in the region. There had been wide fears there that a Democratic White House could pass over Japan as it focused on more pressing issues like the war in Afghanistan or an economically ascendant Beijing.

Japan is also hoping to lobby Clinton into pressuring North Korea to account for Japanese citizens it reportedly abducted during the 1970s and 1980s, a highly emotional issue in Japan that the United States has viewed as a distraction to talks with the North about its nuclear program. Clinton has agreed to meet with families of abductees.

She will also meet Japan's leading opposition political leader, Ichiro Ozawa, whose party could win control of government in elections later this year but who seemed to feel neglected by the Bush administration.

Clinton intends to sign an agreement in Japan under which 8,000 U.S. marines now stationed in Okinawa will relocate to Guam and the Japanese government will commit to helping pay for further realignment of U.S. forces, The Associated Press reported from Washington, quoting officials.

Still, Clinton spoke mostly of China on Friday, signaling that she would take a new, more vigorous approach in relations with Beijing. She said she intended to break with the Bush White House, which viewed China more as a rival than a partner, declaring that the United States had nothing to fear from an economically ascendant Beijing.

Unlike the previous administration, which kept relations with Beijing fixed on narrow economic matters like exchange rates, Clinton said she would press Chinese leaders on delicate issues like human rights and climate change. She also took note of Tibet, saying that Tibetans had a right to practice their religion without persecution.

"Some believe that China on the rise is by definition an adversary," she said. "To the contrary, we believe the United States and China benefit from, and contribute to, each other's successes."

Climate change will figure high on Clinton's agenda in Beijing, where she said she would emphasize how the two countries must work together.

In one sign of a fresh start, Clinton said the United States and China would resume middle-level exchanges between their militaries, which China suspended because of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.

Choe Sang-Hun reported from Seoul and Mark Landler from Washington.

Japan passes contentious stimulus budget

The Associated Press
Published: January 27, 2009

TOKYO: Japan passed a contentious stimulus budget Tuesday aimed at boosting the nation's recession-hit economy.

The 4.8 trillion yen ($54 billion) extra budget for the fiscal year through March was approved by parliament after hours of wrangling between Prime Minister Taro Aso's ruling party and the opposition bloc.

The extra budget, the second for fiscal 2008, contains expanded credit for small businesses and a controversial cash payout to taxpayers totaling 2 trillion yen.

Photo: Lawmakers of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party clap hands after an extra budget was approved at Lower House of Parliament in Tokyo, Japan, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2009. Aimed at boosting the nation's recession-hit economy, Parliament approved the 4.8 trillion yen (US$54 billion) extra budget for the fiscal year through March after hours of wrangling between Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso's ruling party and the opposition bloc.

Aso hopes the package will spur consumer spending and garner support for his embattled government.

"It was great that we could approve the budget that is directly related to the everyday life of the people," Aso told reporters. "I'm anxious to give out the cash handouts as soon as possible."

The package was voted down by the upper house on Monday and was stalled further Tuesday by wrangling between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan.

But it was enacted Tuesday because it had already won approval earlier this month from the more powerful and ruling party-controlled lower house, which has the final say under the constitution.

Aso's government will now focus on passing a record 88.5 trillion yen budget for the next fiscal year, which starts April 1.

His administration continues to teeter, however.

The dispute over the cash payout plan, which has been widely panned as a lavish waste of money, highlighted a rift in the ruling party and prompted a senior party member — former financial services minister Yoshimi Watanabe — to leave the party.

Opposition leaders balked at the budget, especially the planned cash handouts, as a vote-buying attempt by Aso's ruling party.

"It's an ultimate form of pork-barreling in the run-up to elections," said Keiji Kokuta, a Japanese Communist Party executive.

The embattled Aso has repeatedly come under fire for gaffes and a lack of leadership during the global economic crisis.

His approval rating has plunged to about 20 percent since taking office late September.

An alliance in need of attention

By Richard J. Samuels and James L. Schoff
Published: January 22, 2009

Recently declassified Japanese documents have disclosed that after Beijing's successful nuclear test in October 1964, Japan's prime minister urged the United States to use nuclear weapons against China in the event of hostilities. "If war breaks out [with China], we expect immediate nuclear retaliation from the United States," Prime Minister Eisaku Sato told Defense Secretary Robert MacNamara.

After some discussion about the logistics of a retaliatory U.S. strike, McNamara asked Sato to increase Japan's defense budget in response to regional security threats, suggesting that a 500 percent spending hike might be necessary.

At first glance, little seems to have changed. North Korea has tested a nuclear device; Japan is still seeking and receiving reassurance that the United States will defend it; the United States is still demanding greater Japanese defense spending without notable success.

But there have been changes in the security alliance. Cracks have emerged that require attention by the Obama administration and the government in Tokyo.

For example, despite Washington's reassurances, Japanese strategists openly debate their own nuclear option. Now that China has risen and the nuclear facts on North Korean ground have changed, some worry that the U.S. nuclear umbrella might be developing a few holes.
Today in Opinion
Reversing Bush's assault on the UN Population Fund
And now for some other very important elections
Cohen: Remembering Germany

Japan is increasingly concerned about being bullied in the region by a stronger China, or blackmailed by North Korea's nuclear and missile programs, while the United States is focused on nuclear proliferation and terrorist attacks on American territory.

Much to Tokyo's chagrin, Washington has taken North Korea off the list of state sponsors of terrorism and ceded leadership in multilateral talks about North Korea to Beijing.

Meanwhile, much to Washington's dismay, the long-negotiated "road map" for transforming the unequal U.S.-Japan alliance into a more jointly operational security partnership has run into political roadblocks in Japan. With an election looming - and with the increasingly unpopular Liberal Democratic Party likely to lose power - it seems that Tokyo has allowed domestic interests to tie its diplomacy in knots.

Just when Washington is trying to coax Tokyo into playing a larger security role, Japan is shying away from international missions. It ended its Iraq ground mission in 2007 and concluded its Iraq-Kuwait air cargo shuttle last month. Tokyo has spent months deliberating while Somali pirates seize Japanese and others' ships with valuable cargoes and more than a dozen other nations - including China - dispatch naval vessels to the Gulf of Aden to protect the sea lanes. The Japanese overseas aid program, once the largest in the world, has been cut back by 40 percent.

These days, despite talk about Tokyo stepping up to provide public goods, there seems to be no opportunity too obvious for Japan to miss in international affairs. The government has even abandoned its efforts to reinterpret the constitution to allow its military to protect U.S. forces under fire outside of Japanese territory. Should such protection not be forthcoming in an emergency, the alliance will surely collapse.

In 1965, it was relatively easy for both countries to reaffirm their alliance. Talk was cheap and, it seemed, sufficient. After all, the Cold War threats were colossal but limited in number, and the two countries' wealth and power were growing. The United States had its unsinkable aircraft carrier and Japan had its nuclear umbrella.

Although the shared goals of preserving stability, openness and security in Northeast Asia has not changed, today there are more - and more disparate - threats to each nation. Neither the thresholds for intervention nor the scope and nature of military action are very clear. Strategic ambiguity has its virtues, but ambiguity between strategic partners is a recipe for disaster.

We have allowed alliance symbols, like the nuclear umbrella and common democratic values, to stand as a surrogate for alliance value and a clear division of responsibilities. The United States and Japan are still stronger together than apart, and the mantra of shared interests and values remains true, but we need a recalibration of how alliance burdens are shared and decisions are made, lest one or both of us lose interest.

Greater Japanese contributions to global order are needed, be it in maritime security, helping failed states, or bolstering UN peacekeeping missions. In return, Washington should cede proportionate decision-making power, be prepared for Japan to decline to be entangled in U.S. wars, and truly welcome Japan as a security partner. Under current conditions, what we actually accomplish together is far more important than what we say to each other.

Richard J. Samuels is professor of political science and director of the Center for International Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. James L. Schoff is associate director of Asia-Pacific studies at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Get smart

AMERICA ABROAD II
By Joseph S. Nye Jr.
Published: January 16, 2009

CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts: In her confirmation hearings to become secretary of state, Hillary Clinton said: "America cannot solve the most pressing problems on our own, and the world cannot solve them without America.... We must use what has been called 'smart power,' the full range of tools at our disposal."

Smart power is the combination of hard and soft power. Soft power is the ability to obtain preferred outcomes through attraction rather than coercion or payments.

The resources that produce soft power for a country include its culture (where it is attractive to others); its values (where they are attractive and not undercut by inconsistent practices); and policies (where they are seen as inclusive and legitimate in the eyes of others).

Public opinion polls show a serious decline in American attractiveness in Europe, Latin America and, most dramatically, across the entire Muslim world. But when poll respondents are asked why they report a decline in American soft power, they cite American policies more than American culture or values.

Since it is easier for a country to change its policies than its culture, this implies that President-elect Barack Obama will be able to choose policies that could help to recover some of America's soft power.

Of course, soft power is not the solution to all problems. Even though North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il likes to watch Hollywood movies, that is unlikely to affect his nuclear weapons program. But other goals, such as the promotion of democracy and human rights, are better achieved by soft power.

A little more than a year ago, a bipartisan commission on smart power concluded that America's image and influence had declined in recent years, and that the United States had to move from exporting fear to inspiring optimism and hope.

The effects of the 9/11 terrorist attacks threw America off course. Terrorism is a real threat and likely to be with us for decades. But over-responding to the provocations of extremists does us more damage than the terrorists ever could. Success in the struggle against terrorism means finding a new central premise for American foreign policy to replace the current theme of a "war on terror." A commitment to providing for the global good can provide that premise.

The United States can become a smart power by once again investing in global public goods - providing things people and governments in all quarters of the world want but cannot attain in the absence of leadership by the strongest country.

Development, public health and coping with climate change are good examples. By complementing American military and economic might with greater investments in soft power, and focusing on global public goods, the United States can rebuild the framework that it needs to tackle tough global challenges.

Style also matters. For example, when a Bush administration official told the 2007 UN conference on climate change at Bali, "The U.S. will lead, and we will continue to lead, but leadership requires others to fall into line and follow," that statement set back our diplomatic efforts.

It illustrates how insensitivity to style and the perception of others can undercut the soft power efforts of an administration even when they are directed at producing global public goods.

The Obama administration will have to generate soft power, and relate it to hard power in smart strategies.

The bad news is that Obama and Clinton face a difficult international environment. The good news is that previous presidents have managed to employ hard, soft and smart power in equally difficult contexts, and Clinton showed in her testimony that she understands this.

In 1970, during the Vietnam War, America was viewed as unattractive in many parts of the world, but with changed policies and the passage of time, we managed to recover our soft power. If it has happened before, it can happen again.

Joseph S. Nye Jr., professor of international relations at Harvard University, was cochairman of the CSIS Commission on Smart Power. A Global Viewpoint article distributed by Tribune Media Services.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/16/opinion/ednye.1-409070.php

US Marines' move to Guam may need more money, time

The Associated Press
Published: November 9, 2008

TOKYO: The planned relocation of 8,000 U.S. Marines from Japan's southernmost island of Okinawa to Guam may cost more and take longer than initially expected, local media reported Sunday.

The transfer, part of a bilateral agreement to realign the U.S. military presence in Japan, could be delayed until at least 2015 and exceed the initial $10.3 billion estimate, the Yomiuri newspaper said, citing unidentified sources.

With the U.S. Department of Defense likely facing budget cuts in the wake of the U.S. financial crisis, the government may ask Tokyo to foot a bigger portion of the bill, the Yomiuri said. Japan has thus far agreed to contribute about $6 billion for the transfer.

In New York on Wednesday, Adm. Timothy Keating, the senior U.S. commander in the Pacific, suggested that the relocation may not happen by 2014 as planned but reiterated that it would go ahead despite looming budgetary constraints.

"The two governments of the United States and Japan have recommitted at the very highest levels — prime minister and president — to the eventual success of the (agreement)," Keating said, according to the U.S. Department of Defense.

A report by the Government Accountability Office suggested in May that the project could be pushed back, citing inadequate infrastructure in Guam and the growing fiscal burden on both governments. In September, it said costs could balloon beyond $15 billion.

However, a senior Defense Department official said Saturday that Washington still aims to complete the relocation by 2014.

"This reflects our shared determination to realize the new alliance posture expeditiously and in a manner that strengthens deterrence while reducing the size of the U.S. footprint in Okinawa," said David Sydney, deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, according to Kyodo News agency.

The Marines who will be moved to Guam, a U.S. protectorate, are part of the 50,000 troops currently stationed in Japan under a bilateral security pact.

A delay would likely affect the timetable for another major part of the agreement inked in 2006 — relocating the U.S. Marine Corps' Futemma Air Station north of Ginowan to Nago in a more rural part of Okinawa.

The deal grew out of long-standing complaints in Okinawa about noise and crime related to the heavy U.S. military presence there. Okinawa is about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) southwest of Tokyo.

Protests planned to meet new U.S. aircraft carrier

The Associated Press
Published: September 22, 2008

TOKYO: Activists prepared large protests to meet the arrival of the USS George Washington aircraft carrier, which is to dock just south of Tokyo on Thursday to become the first nuclear-powered carrier with its home port in Japan.

Organizers said Monday they planned to hold demonstrations throughout the day, both onshore and on boats in the harbor around the U.S. naval base at Yokosuka, where the George Washington is to arrive.

"Having a nuclear-powered carrier based in Yokosuka is like having a nuclear power plant built right next to our capital," said Masahiko Goto, a local lawyer who has led opposition to the deployment.

Goto said a few hundred people were expected to join in protests as the ship arrives, and another 2,000 were to gather near the base that night.

The George Washington, which can carry a crew of up to 5,600 and 70 aircraft, will replace the USS Kitty Hawk as the U.S. Navy's only permanently forward-based aircraft carrier.

The Navy has said the deployment of the carrier demonstrates America's commitment to providing "the most advanced capabilities" to the U.S. 7th fleet, which is home-ported in Yokosuka. The decision to base the George Washington in Yokosuka has also been welcomed by Japan's government.

Along with the 7th Fleet, about 50,000 U.S. troops are deployed throughout Japan under a mutual security pact.

But the arrival of the new carrier has been controversial because it will mean more sailors will be based in Yokosuka and also because of concerns of a possible accident or leakage from its nuclear reactor.

The Kitty Hawk, which is to be decommissioned, was conventionally powered.

Concerns over safety were heightened when the U.S. Navy disclosed in early August that the USS Houston, a submarine, had leaked water containing radiation during several calls to Sasebo and Okinawa, in southern Japan, and Yokosuka between July 2006 and April 2008.

A Navy investigation found the leak posed no danger to Japan.

US ends probe of nuclear submarine leak in Japan

The Associated Press
Published: August 30, 2008

TOKYO: Japan has received a final U.S. report concluding that small amounts of radiation escaped from a faulty valve on an American nuclear-powered submarine during Japanese port visits but posed no health or environmental threat, the Foreign Ministry said.

The U.S. Navy disclosed in early August that the USS Houston had leaked water containing radiation during several calls to Sasebo and Okinawa in southern Japan and Yokosuka near Tokyo between July 2006 and April 2008.

U.S. Deputy Chief of Mission James P. Zumwalt submitted the report Friday, saying the Navy investigation concluded that the leakage in the three ports totaled 0.6 micro curies, or less than one-millionth of a curie, which posed no danger to Japan, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement obtained Saturday. The ministry provided a copy of the report.

"The trace levels of radioactivity would have no adverse effect on human health, marine life, or the environment," the U.S. report said. "The radiation exposure dose would be less than that received from a routine chest X-ray."

The report said the U.S. Navy was improving the valve's quality before sending the submarine back into operation.

It said the Navy, after reviewing records dating back to 2004, concluded that "the valve had been steadily leaking" from June 2006 until the submarine entered dry dock in July, when the problem was discovered for the first time. About a gallon of water spilled onto a crew member on July 17 when a fitting came loose. The report also said no similar leakage had occurred in the past 50 years.

U.S. officials were not available for comment Saturday.

The incident has caused a stir in Japan weeks ahead of the arrival of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington, to be permanently based in Yokosuka, near Tokyo. The George Washington is to arrive in late September after a fire aboard the vessel in May delayed its departure — another incident that irked many Japanese.

The presence of nuclear submarines is particularly sensitive in Japan, the only country to have been attacked by U.S. atomic bombs in the closing days of World War II.

The Navy has said the Houston also released tiny amounts of radiation in Guam, Pearl Harbor, and during port visits in Singapore, Port Kelang, Malaysia and Saipan.

Spate of violent crimes spark renewed protest, anger against US troops in Japan

Published: April 4, 2008
The Associated Press

TOKYO: By all appearances, it was a mindless, brutal crime, a 61-year-old taxi driver stabbed to death by a customer who apparently quarreled with him over the fare.

This particular murder has another twist.

The suspect is a U.S. sailor. On Thursday, Japanese police arrested the 22-year-old crew member from the U.S. naval base in Yokosuka.

Though crime involving the 50,000 U.S. troops in Japan is going down, a recent spate of high-profile incidents has renewed an old debate about how to keep U.S. troops here in line. Or, for some, whether they should be here at all.

"As long as there are troops here, there will be a problem with crime," said Emiko Shimamoto, a housewife who joined roughly 6,000 other protesters in a recent demonstration against the American presence in Okinawa.

That sentiment has long existed in Okinawa, a far-flung southern archipelago where more than half the U.S. troops are deployed.

The taxi-driver murder, which occurred just south of Tokyo, has brought the issue closer to home for many other Japanese.

"It's scary that there are dangerous people like that near Tokyo," said Maho Goto, a 15-year-old high school girl. "It's outrageous because the U.S. servicemen are supposed to be here to defend us, not to commit crimes."

The current wave of concern started in February following a rape allegation in Okinawa. The Japanese police have since dropped the case, reportedly because the girl decided she did not want to testify.

Marine Staff Sgt. Tyrone Hadnott allegedly took the 14-year-old girl to his house after offering her a ride home. When she started crying, he said he would drive her home but then, the girl claimed, he raped her in a car.

"This kind of act by one of our military members, a Marine staff sergeant, is absolutely unacceptable and in no way matches the commitment of our entire U.S. Forces Japan community to the highest possible moral and professional standards," said Lt. Gen. Bruce Wright, then the top U.S. military official in Japan.

The case, which revived memories of a 1995 rape, received daily coverage in the media and was followed in rapid succession by allegations of Marine involvement in a gang-rape in Hiroshima late last year and then by the taxi-driver murder.

The military's reaction has been stern.

Rear Adm. James Kelly, commander of U.S. Naval Forces in Japan, announced restrictions this week on drinking off-base for sailors at Yokosuka.

On Okinawa, Lt. Gen. Richard Zilmer quickly ordered leadership and cultural awareness training, imposed a strict curfew and virtually banned nonessential off-base activities for all 52,000 troops, civilian employees and their dependents.

Hadnott, whose hometown has not been disclosed, remains in a military brig, and his case is still under investigation by U.S. military authorities.

The off-base travel ban has since been eased, but the other measures remain largely in place.

"We're guests here, so one crime is too many," said Lt. Col. Douglas Powell, the top spokesman for the Marines on Okinawa.

But he said the Marines believe the recent crimes are an anomaly.

"We look at them as isolated incidents," he said. "The Japanese don't see it that way. They see it as a chain of incidents."

According to Okinawan police, the number of arrests for felonies or serious misdemeanors by base personnel and dependents fell from 133 in 2003 to 46 in 2006.

Powell attributed the decline to a change in attitude and tougher policies cracking down on bad behavior. In particular, off-base drinking has been severely reduced.

Many of the changes were the result of public outrage over the 1995 rape, in which three servicemen brutally attacked a 12-year-old girl.

The ensuing outcry and other concerns about crime, accidents and overcrowding prompted negotiations with the Japanese government that led to a decision to move 8,000 Marines from Okinawa to the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam by 2012.

Some critics claim the military has overreacted this time, trying to squelch bad headlines by meting out punishment to everyone for the misdeeds of a few.

For Okinawans, the balance between concerns about crime and the boost the U.S. bases provide to the local economy is a complicated one.

Okinawa is the poorest region in Japan, and restrictions aimed at keeping the troops on base are often hotly contested by Okinawan leaders.

"Okinawa has gone through a lot in the name of peace," said Ayaka Nakamura, noting that it was not only devastated in the closing days of World War II but was also under U.S. occupation until 1972, 20 years longer than the rest of Japan.

"I understand why the bases are here," she said. "But I have little hope that we will ever be free of these crimes."

Okinawans protest crimes related to U.S. troops on their island

The Associated Press
Published: March 23, 2008

CHATAN, Japan: Several thousand Okinawans angry over recent reports of crimes allegedly committed by U.S. troops held a loud but peaceful protest Sunday, with many demanding the troops be withdrawn from the island altogether.

The protest was followed by a march to the gate of a nearby U.S. Marine base. No incidents or arrests were reported.

The demonstration was sparked by recent reports of U.S. troop-related crime, including the arrest of a Marine for allegedly assaulting a 14-year-old Okinawan girl in February. The Marine was later released from Japanese custody and no charges were filed.

"The voice of Okinawa is angry," said protest organizer Tetsuei Tamayose. "We need a fundamental change."

Banners demanding the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from Okinawa ringed the makeshift stage of the protest, held outside a baseball stadium.

Okinawa, a major outpost for the United States in the Pacific, is home to roughly half of the 50,000 U.S. troops stationed throughout Japan.

The troops provide a major economic boost to the island, which is one of Japan's poorest regions, but problems with base-related accidents, crowding and crime are endemic.

The rape of a 12-year-old girl by three U.S. servicemen in 1995 created a huge outcry and led to plans for the redeployment of 8,000 Marines from Okinawa to the U.S. territory of Guam.

The latest allegations have not sparked as much outrage, and organizers of Sunday's rally said a strong rain contributed to a relatively limited turnout, which fell short of the 10,000 people they had hoped for.

The U.S. military here, meanwhile, has reacted strongly to enforce discipline by restricting troops to bases, work sites or off-base housing and ordering a review of education guidelines to prevent sexual assault.

U.S. military authorities are still investigating February's alleged attack.

Several other incidents — including a robbery — were reported soon after that attack, however, and were linked to military personnel.

Other high-profile crimes have also heightened emotions.

The U.S. military has announced it will soon court martial four Marines accused of raping a 19-year-old woman in October. That case was also investigated by Japanese police, but dropped in November.

In the most recent case, a U.S. sailor sought for questioning in the killing of a Japanese taxi driver near an American navy base outside of Tokyo was taken into U.S. custody early Saturday.

The 61-year-old victim, Masaaki Takahashi, was found fatally stabbed in his cab Wednesday night in Yokosuka, south of Tokyo, about a kilometer (half-mile) from the U.S. naval base.

Reports have said credit cards belonging to the detained sailor were found in the taxi.

TOKYO: U.S. commander vows 'zero tolerance'

02/26/2008
THE ASAHI SHIMBUN

Lt. Gen. Bruce Wright, the departing commander of U.S. Forces Japan, said Monday the military will continue taking a strict stand on crimes committed by servicemen, following the suspected rape in Okinawa Prefecture of a schoolgirl.

"The past two weeks have been both challenging and hurtful (for the U.S. military)," Wright said in a change of command ceremony at Yokota Air Base in western Tokyo.

Wright, replaced Monday by Lt. Gen. Edward Rice, promised "unwavering commitment to 'zero tolerance' for crimes committed by U.S. forces in our host country Japan."(IHT/Asahi: February 26,2008)

Marine arrested on rape charges in Japan [Okinawa]

The Associated Press
Published: February 11, 2008

TOKYO: Japanese police arrested a U.S. marine Monday for allegedly raping a Japanese schoolgirl in southern Japan, a police official said.

Police officers arrested Tyrone Luther Hadnott, a 38-year-old marine of Camp Courtney in Okinawa, Japan's southernmost prefecture (state), on a charge of raping the 14-year-old girl, an official of the Okinawa Police said.

The suspect, whose hometown was not immediately available, allegedly raped the girl in a parked car in a town in central Okinawa Sunday evening, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity citing policy.

Okinawa police took custody of the marine for investigation, he said.

Kyodo News agency reported that the girl met the suspect Sunday and took a ride on a motorbike with him because she thought he was going to take her to her home. Instead, the marine took her to his house and when she started crying he took her out and assaulted her in a car, it said.

Officials with the U.S. Forces in Japan could not immediately confirm the case.

Under a mutual security pact, the United States has about 50,000 troops deployed around Japan.

Most of them are based on Okinawa and tensions there over troop-related crime and disputes over land use are endemic.

In 1995, the rape of a schoolgirl in Okinawa by three American servicemen sparked large-scale protests. The three served prison terms of six and a half to seven years.

Other Articles:

US Marine Accused of Rape in Japan
Sun Feb 10, 2008 8:11 PM EST
Chisaki Watanabe, AP Writer

Marine Arrested Over Japan Rape
By REUTERS, New York Times
Published: February 11, 2008

U.S. Marine arrested on suspicion of raping 14-year-old girl
NAHA, Japan, Feb. 11 KYODO

U.S. Marine arrested on suspicion of raping 14-year-old girl
Feb 10 08:10 PM US/Eastern

U.S. military officials wary of China's expanding fleet of submarines

By David Lague
Published: February 7, 2008

BEIJING: For a procession of senior U.S. military commanders who have visited China in recent years, the complaint has become almost routine.

As part of a sustained military buildup, they say, China is investing heavily in so-called area-denial weapons without explaining why it needs them.

The term area-denial weapons refers to a combination of armaments, technology and tactics that could be used to dominate a specific area or keep opposing forces at bay in a conflict. And one of the most formidable examples U.S. commanders identify is the Chinese Navy's rapidly expanding fleet of nuclear and conventional submarines.

"I would say that the U.S. feels a strong threat from Chinese submarines," said Andrei Chang, an expert on Chinese and Taiwan military forces and editor in chief of the magazine Kanwa Defence Review.

"China now has more submarines than Russia, and the speed they are building them is amazing," Chang said.

U.S. and other Western military analysts estimate that China now has more than 30 advanced and increasingly stealthy submarines, along with dozens of older, obsolete types. "China is capable of serial production of modern diesel-electric submarines and is moving forward with new nuclear submarines," the Pentagon said last year in its annual report on the Chinese military.

By the end of the decade, experts say, China will have more submarines than the United States, although it will still lag in overall capability.

In a conflict, these Chinese submarines - many armed with state-of-the-art torpedoes and anti-ship missiles - would sharply increase the threat to enemy warships approaching the strategically important waterways of North Asia, according to security experts.

On a visit to China last month, the senior U.S. military commander in Asia, Admiral Timothy Keating, said the Pentagon was continuing to monitor the development of China's area-denial weapons, including submarines.

"Chinese submarines have very impressive capabilities, and their numbers are increasing," Keating told reporters in Beijing. Like other U.S. commanders, he also called on China to be more open about its plans.

If China were more transparent about the need for these weapons, it would improve trust and reduce the danger of crisis or conflict, Keating said.

"In submarine operations in particular, because of the medium in which they are conducted, underwater, there is greater potential, in my opinion, for inadvertent activity that could be misconstrued or misunderstood," he told reporters.

Under pressure from Washington, senior Chinese officers have said that the buildup is strictly tailored to defending China's interests and that it poses no threat to any other nation.

"The distance between the Chinese and U.S. militaries is big," said General Chen Bingde, chief of general staff in Beijing of the People's Liberation Army. "If you fear China's military buildup, you don't have much courage."

While the administration of President George W. Bush continues to press Beijing for transparency, most foreign security experts, including senior Pentagon analysts, believe China's unstated objectives are relatively clear.

They say that China plans to use its submarines and other area-denial weapons to delay or deter a U.S. intervention in case of conflict over Taiwan. China regards the self-governing island as part of its territory and has warned regularly that it would use force to prevent Taiwan from moving toward formal independence.

Stealthy submarines would pose a direct threat to the deployment of U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups, almost certainly the first line of any American response to a Taiwan crisis, according to security experts.

In conjunction with attacks on military surveillance satellites, regional U.S. bases and communication networks, the Chinese military would attempt to keep U.S. forces at a distance while attempting to overwhelm the island's defenses, they say.

"This is precisely what the submarines are for," said Allan Behm, a security analyst in Canberra and a former senior Australian Defense Department official. "They can bottle up and deny an enemy access to any given area; in this case that means the U.S. Pacific fleet."

On previous occasions of high tension over Taiwan, Washington has deployed aircraft carriers to neighboring waters, sending a signal to China that it should not use force against Taiwan.

But in a clear demonstration of the increasing vulnerability of these warships, one of China's new Song-class conventional submarines was able to remain undetected as it shadowed the U.S. carrier Kitty Hawk off the coast of Okinawa, Japan, in late 2006. It then surfaced well within torpedo range.

For some China experts in the U.S. military, this was an aggressive signal to Washington that ranked with China's destruction in January 2007 of one of its own obsolete weather satellites with an antisatellite missile. In so doing, the Chinese Navy demonstrated that it could challenge the most powerful surface combatants of the U.S. Navy in waters around Taiwan. It also gave evidence that Chinese submarine technology had advanced more rapidly than some experts had expected.

"The U.S. had no idea it was there," said Behm. "This is the great capability of very quiet, conventional submarines."

Submarine construction is clearly a top priority for the Chinese Navy, and foreign analysts have noted that in recent years it has concurrently developed four - possibly five - classes of new, locally designed and built submarines.

Some experts have suggested that China is taking the same path as Germany and Japan, which once relied heavily on submarines in a bid to compete with the British and U.S. navies.

The attraction of submarines, the experts say, is that they are extremely cost-effective weapons compared with surface warships. For a relatively modest investment, stealthy submarines can threaten much more valuable military and cargo vessels and attack targets on land with missiles.

The suspicion alone that a submarine may be in the area can force an adversary to operate more cautiously, while diverting resources to expensive and complex detection and tracking.

In further evidence of progress in submarine technology, China displayed photographs and models of its new Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine at a Beijing exhibition in July celebrating the 80th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army. The official People's Daily newspaper reported that two submarines of this class are now in service.

In October, Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons researcher with the Federation of American Scientists, spotted on a Google Earth satellite image what appeared to be two of China's Jin-class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. Some military analysts were surprised that China had built another submarine of this class so soon after the first, in 2004.

And to put the improvement of its fleet on a fast track, China has also taken delivery of 12 advanced Kilo-class conventional submarines from Russia. These submarines are among the quietest and most difficult to detect, according to veteran submariners.

Experts say the designs of the newest Chinese submarines show evidence of technical assistance from Russia.

Analysts have also suggested that some of China's conventional submarines have been fitted with so-called air-independent propulsion systems. This would allow the submarines to patrol for extended periods under water without needing to draw in air for the diesel engines used to charge their batteries.

A number of naval experts have noticed that the growth in China's submarine power has occurred while U.S. antisubmarine warfare capability has declined from its peak during the Cold War.

What is more, in case of conflict over Taiwan, Chinese submarines would have the advantage of operating in a favorable environment for undersea warfare.

The waters of the East China Sea, South China Sea and Yellow Sea are of uneven depth, with considerable background noise, complex thermal behavior and strong currents. These factors make it very difficult, if not impossible, for surface ships and aircraft to detect stealthy submarines, even with the most advanced passive sonar and other sensors.

Japan textbooks to restore reference on wartime military involvement in mass suicides

The Associated Press
Published: December 26, 2007

TOKYO: The Education Ministry will restore textbook references to the involvement by Japan's wartime military to suggest that Okinawans were forced to commit mass suicides during the closing days of World War II, officials said Wednesday.

The ministry's move is an apparent attempt to ease the huge public outcry on Okinawa that was sparked after an order last year to amend the texts in a manner that softened brutal accounts of Japanese wartime conduct.

The ministry decided on the amendment after its textbook panel, which screens textbooks for use in Japanese schools, approved the latest change by six textbook publishers, according to ministry official Tsuruo Moriyama.

"We take heed of the feelings of the people of Okinawa who don't want to see the lesson of the history forgotten," Education Minister Kisaburo Tokai said in a statement.

"At this point, we have not been able to confirm any proof that each of the mass suicides was conducted by direct orders of the military," the panel said in a report. "Meanwhile, from the residents' point of view, it is possible to believe that they were driven into a situation where they had no other choice but to kill themselves," it said.

Kyodo News agency said the panel, which can order corrections of perceived historical inaccuracies, approved references to the "forced" nature of the suicides on condition that textbooks provide the background to the mass suicides.

Historians say at least 500 civilians were induced by government propaganda to believe U.S. soldiers would commit horrible atrocities, and killed themselves and their families to avoid capture.

However, in recent years, some academics have questioned whether the suicides were forced — part of a general push by Japanese conservatives to soften criticism of Tokyo's wartime conduct.

Wednesday's announcement reversed the earlier decision made by the conservative government of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

"We take to the heart the feelings of the people of Okinawa," Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda told reporters Wednesday.

In September, more than 100,000 people protested in Okinawa against the government order in December to modify sections of several high school textbooks that said the Japanese army — faced with a U.S. invasion in 1945 — distributed grenades to island residents and urged them to kill themselves rather than surrender to the Americans.

The bloody battle in Okinawa left more than 200,000 civilians and soldiers dead, speeding the collapse of Japan's defenses.

Japanese prosecutors asked to investigate 4 suspected of classified data leak

The Associated Press
Published: December 25, 2007

TOKYO: Japanese police said Tuesday they have asked investigators to probe four military instructors who allegedly leaked sensitive defense technology.

Police suspect the four men — all naval academy instructors — leaked classified data to students in violation of a Japan-U.S. security pact, police in Kanagawa prefecture (state) said in a statement sent to prosecutors.

A Kanagawa police spokesman read the statement over the telephone on condition of anonymity, citing department policy. The men's names have not been released as they have not been arrested, he added.

The data involves U.S.-developed technology for Aegis radar systems used on several Japanese destroyers and U.S. warships carrying missile interceptors.

The case surfaced in March, when police found the information on a computer disk in an unrelated investigation.

Police had already asked for an investigation into one of the four instructors last Thursday as part of a separate aspect of the case, police official Yoshinobu Yokota said. He did not elaborate further.

Earlier this month, police arrested another naval officer, Sumitaka Matsuuchi, for allegedly leaking the information in August 2002.

The scandal has been an embarrassment for Japanese defense officials as Tokyo and Washington accelerate their joint missile defense system to counter North Korea's testing of missiles and a nuclear device.

The case has raised concerns about the way Japan's military handles classified information and prompted officials to call for improved intelligence management.

Japan to attempt missile intercept in space from ship off Hawaii

The Associated Press
Published: December 16, 2007

PEARL HARBOR, Hawaii: Capt. Mineo Hirata and the 280 sailors on board the Japanese navy destroyer JS Kongo will attempt to shoot a ballistic missile out of space on Monday — a first for Tokyo or any U.S. ally.

The joint Japan-U.S. test off Hawaii comes almost 10 years after North Korea launched a long-range missile that flew over Japanese territory and splashed into the Pacific Ocean, spurring an alarmed Tokyo to invest billions in missile defense.

"There are countries near us that possess ballistic missiles," Hirata told reporters on a Pearl Harbor pier before the Kongo headed out to sea. "This (the test) is very important for the defense of our nation, for the protection of our people and property."

Experts say the test of the Standard Missile-3 interceptor will likely strengthen the U.S.-Japan defense alliance. But it may also deepen concerns in Beijing that Tokyo could use the technology to help the U.S. defend Taiwan if conflict erupted across the straits.

The Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai, run by the U.S. Navy, will fire the target missile into the sky. The USS Lake Erie, a Pearl Harbor-based guided missile cruiser, will track the missile target and feed information on it to a command center.

The medium-range test target is expected to resemble Pyongyang's Rodong missiles, which are capable of flying about 620 miles (1,000 kilometers) — or far enough to put Tokyo and much of Japan within their range.

The Rodong has a shorter range than the Taepodong-1 missile that flew over Japan in August 1998.

But the Rodong, of which North Korea is believed to possess about 200, represents the biggest security threat to Japan, said Retired Vice Adm. Fumio Ota, the director of the Center for Security and Crisis Management Education at the National Defense Academy of Japan.

"If we have midcourse missile destruction capability, we would significantly improve our missile defenses," said Ota, a former director of Japan's defense intelligence headquarters.

U.S. Navy ships have successfully intercepted medium-range ballistic missiles in space in previous tests.

Monday's drill will see if Japan can do similarly even though the Aegis ballistic missile defense system it has on board has been modified slightly to suit Japanese ship specifications.

Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corp., said that even if the Kongo succeeds, it will be a couple of years before Japan installs enough missile interceptors on board its ships to substantially boost its capabilities.

"This is a sort of like taking the first step," Bennett said. "They're really trying to position themselves to make the system work."

Ota said the test would bolster a U.S-Japan alliance that has suffered from two recent setbacks.

One involves allegations that a 34-year-old Japanese lieutenant commander leaked classified data involving the Aegis system. Police arrested the officer Thursday.

The other is Tokyo's suspension of a program to refuel U.S. ships supporting coalition forces fighting in Afghanistan, Ota said. Japan had to end the refueling mission when the government failed to win enough opposition votes for a bill that would have extended the program.

Meanwhile, Japan's regional rival, China, likely will be looking warily at Monday's events.

Jing-dong Yuan, a professor at the Monterey Institute for International Studies in Monterey, California, said Beijing would not object if Japan develops missile defenses to protect its own territory and U.S. forces on Japanese soil.

But it is concerned Japan may use its Aegis missile defense system ships to help the U.S. defend Taiwan if conflict broke out between China and the self-governing island Beijing claims is a renegade province.

"It really depends on how one is to interpret the current mission of the U.S.-Japan defense alliance — the scope and the extension of the alliance," Yuan said.

China and Japan can overcome the potential for tensions developing on this issue if they maintain an active bilateral dialogue, he said. But problems could brew if ties deteriorate and dialogue declines as was the case under former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who governed Japan from 2001 to 2006, Yuan said.

Ota said, however, that while Tokyo was developing missile defenses to protect against North Korea in the short term, it aimed to defend itself against China in the long-term.

This is driven in part by China's growing arsenal of short-range missiles capable of reaching Okinawa and Kyushu in southern Japan, he said.

The International Herald Tribune

Japan defense chief says US asking too much for Tokyo's share of military housing on Guam

The Associated Press
Published: December 10, 2007

TOKYO: Washington's estimate of the housing costs it wants Tokyo to shoulder for U.S. Marines after they are moved from southern Japan to Guam is too high, Japan's defense minister said Monday.

Japan has agreed to help move thousands of Marines from its southern island of Okinawa to the U.S. territory of Guam and provide new housing for them under an agreement last year to streamline American troops in Japan.

But Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Washington's proposal of 70 million yen (US$627,800; €428,600) per house is too high.

"Do we have to provide such extravagant houses by using our tax money? Obviously, it's too high," Ishiba told the upper house's audit committee. "We have to examine it closely."

Ishiba did not say what would be considered an appropriate level, but added that a similar house could be built for just over half that price in Okinawa.

Under last year's agreement, Japan is to shoulder about 60 percent of the estimated US$10 billion (€6.8 billion) needed to build houses and relocate 8,000 Marines to Guam, about 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles) south of Tokyo in the Pacific. The Marines are part of the 50,000 troops currently stationed in Japan under a bilateral security pact.

The realignment plan also includes the relocation of a U.S. Marine Corps air station in Okinawa to a less crowded location on the island. Carrier-borne fighter jets from the U.S. Navy based near Tokyo also will be moved to southwestern Japan.

Many Okinawans complain about the noise and crime related to the heavy U.S. military presence there, but others say the troops benefit the economy in the prefecture, which has Japan's highest unemployment rate.

Okinawa is about 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) southwest of Tokyo.

International Herald Tribune

The China Post

Mainichi Daily News