North Korea Removed from Terrorism Blacklist

Ampontan

• With friends like these
  Sunday, October 19, 2008
  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GREAT BRITAIN, Japan has been America’s most dependable ally since the end of the Second World War. To take the point further, Japanese conduct in that time might well be used as a model for the behavior of the ideal national ally. continued ...

Telegraph

• Families of missing Japanese angry at US - North Korea deal
  Last Updated: 11:40AM BST 18 Oct 2008
  There were celebrations in Washington and Pyongyang when North Korea and America agreed a groundbreaking deal but, for Sakie Yokata, and her husband, Shigeru, there was no cause to celebrate.
  By Julian Ryall in Tokyo
  The US decision to remove North Korea from its list of terrorist countries marked a new low in the 31-year-search for her daughter. Megumi Yokota was 13 when she was snatched on her way home from school in November 1977 by North Korean agents. continued ...


• Families of missing Japanese angry at US - North Korea deal
  Last Updated: 11:40AM BST 18 Oct 2008
  There were celebrations in Washington and Pyongyang when North Korea and America agreed a groundbreaking deal but, for Sakie Yokata, and her husband, Shigeru, there was no cause to celebrate.
  By Julian Ryall in Tokyo
  The US decision to remove North Korea from its list of terrorist countries marked a new low in the 31-year-search for her daughter. Megumi Yokota was 13 when she was snatched on her way home from school in November 1977 by North Korean agents. continued ...


• Japan denounces US decision to remove North Korea from terrorism blacklist
  Last Updated: 7:59PM BST 12 Oct 2008
  Japan denounced America's decision to remove North Korea from its terrorism blacklist, pointedly reminding Washington that 17 of its citizens are still held captive by the Stalinist state.
  By Julian Ryall in Tokyo
  Taro Aso, the new prime minister, was called out of an official dinner to learn that President George W. Bush had authorised North Korea's removal from the official list of state sponsors of terrorism. continued ...

Sydney Morning Herald

• Change of tack by Bush miffs Tokyo
  October 18, 2008
  WITH the crumbling American economy, the precarious hold on security achieved by the "surge" in Iraq, and the widening threat of Islamist extremism in Afghanistan and Pakistan, George Bush has just been forced to accept another setback to his original agenda.
  His presidency is ending with a slap in the face for the key ally in Asia, Japan, for whom his advisers had envisaged an enhanced role in Asian security. continued ...

The Japan Times

• U.S. reassures Japan on abductions
  Friday, Oct. 17, 2008
  WASHINGTON (Kyodo) The United States will continue to support Japan on the abduction issue even though it has removed Pyongyang from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, the State Department said Wednesday. continued ...


• Aso downplays removal of N. Korea from U.S. blacklist
  Monday, Oct. 13, 2008
  (Kyodo News) The U.S. move to strike North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism won't prevent finding a resolution to Pyongyang's abductions of Japanese nationals, Prime Minister Taro Aso said Sunday. continued ...

Independent (UK)

• Trimming a hawk's wings
  17 Oct 2008
  Outspoken Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso holds his tongue as Washington informs him at the 11th hour of its decision to remove North Korea from its list of terrorism-sponsoring states, Axel Berkofsky writes for ISN Security Watch.
  By Axel Berkofsky for ISN Security Watch
  Newly elected Japanese Prime Taro Aso is not happy. continued ...

Kyoto

• Japan envoy Fujisaki sees U.S. delisting as no surprise
  Oct 16 09:39 PM US/Eastern
  WASHINGTON, Oct. 16 (AP) - (Kyodo)—Japanese Ambassador to the United States Ichiro Fujisaki said Thursday the U.S. removal of North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism came as no surprise to Japan. continued ...


• Aso Cabinet reaffirms N. Korea policy of sanctions, no fuel aid
  Oct 15 07:07 AM US/Eastern
  Japan will stand firm in maintaining its sanctions on North Korea and not take part in six-party energy aid to Pyongyang until progress is made on resolving the issue of its past abductions, Prime Minister Taro Aso reaffirmed with all Cabinet ministers Wednesday in the wake of the North being checked off the U.S. terror-sponsoring blacklist. continued ...


• Abductees' families call for more sanctions over N. Korea delisting
  Oct 15 03:57 AM US/Eastern
  TOKYO, Oct. 15 (AP) - (Kyodo) — The families of Japanese victims of North Korea's past abductions urged the government on Wednesday to step up economic sanctions on North Korea to maintain its pressure to resolve the issue in the wake of the U.S. removal of the North from its list of terror- sponsoring nations. continued ...

Agence France-Presse (AFP)

• US envoy asks Japan families for understanding on NKorea
  October 16, 2008
  TOKYO (AFP) — The US ambassador to Japan on Thursday tried to ease anger at the US decision to take North Korea off its terrorist blacklist, seeking understanding from families of people kidnapped by Pyongyang. continued ...


• Japan PM says won't give energy aid to NKorea
  Tue Oct 14, 1:13 PM
  TOKYO (AFP) - Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso on Tuesday criticised the US removal of North Korea from a terrorist blacklist and refused to give aid to Pyongyang under a nuclear disarmament deal. continued ...

Voice of America

• North Korea Off Terror List
  16 October 2008
  The Following Is An Editorial Reflecting the Views of The US Government
  The Six-Party Talks, which are aimed at the verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, began in 2003. The participants include North Korea (the DPRK), South Korea, Japan, the Russian Federation and the United States, under the chairmanship of China. continued ...


• Critics of US-North Korea Nuclear Deal Say US Concedes Too Much
  13 October 2008
  By Kurt Achin, Seoul
  For many, this weekend's nuclear compromise between the United States and North Korea brought a sigh of relief that a six nation diplomatic process could be salvaged. But the deal has critics, both in the United States and Japan. VOA's Kurt Achin has more from Seoul. continued ...

Reuters

• Japan PM vows to bring abductees home from N.Korea
  Wed Oct 15, 2008 6:07pm IST
  By Yoko Nishikawa
  TOKYO (Reuters) - Six years after Japanese kidnapped by North Korea agents returned home to an emotional welcome, Prime Minister Taro Aso vowed on Wednesday to do all he could to repatriate other abductees. continued ...


• Japan criticises US decision on North Korea
  Sunday, 12 October 2008
  Japan pledged on Sunday to try to resolve an emotive dispute with North Korea over citizens abducted by Pyongyang decades ago, after Washington took the secretive communist state off its terrorist blacklist. continued ...

Daily Yomiuri Online

• North Korea's hard line pays off
  (Oct. 15, 2008)
  North Korea will have gained far more through its delisting from the U.S. blacklist of terrorism-sponsoring states than it will have lost through its agreement to accept international verification of its nuclear programs. continued ...


• Has Japan suffered a diplomatic defeat?
  (Oct. 15, 2008)
  Hiroshi Yumoto and Takeo Miyazaki / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers
  The United States' removal of North Korea from its blacklist of state sponsors of terrorism--symbolically significant but with little immediate impact on Washington-Pyongyang relations--has come as a major psychological blow to Japan. People both inside and outside the government have said the delisting is tantamount to a "diplomatic defeat" for Japan, brought about in part by a domestic political vacuum. continued ...


• Aso vows to be committed to tackling abduction issue
  (Oct. 15, 2008)
  Prime Minister Taro Aso told a Diet committee Tuesday that the government would seek to resolve the issue of Japanese abducted by North Korean agents despite the United States' removal of the reclusive country from a list of terrorism-sponsoring states. continued ...


• Govt reacts calmly to DPRK delisting
  (Oct. 13, 2008)
  The Foreign Ministry has reacted with equanimity to the United States' removal of North Korea from its list of terrorism-sponsoring states, with a senior ministry official maintaining that there will be no major change in the situation surrounding the reclusive communist country. continued ...


• U.S. set to take DPRK off terrorist list
  (Oct. 11, 2008)
  Takeo Miyazaki / Yomiuri Shimbun Correspondent
  WASHINGTON--The U.S. government was set to remove North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism as early as Friday following a deal in talks on Pyongyang's nuclear programs, a high-ranking U.S. government official told The Yomiuri Shimbun. continued ...

Asahi

• EDITORIAL: North Korea's delisting
  (IHT/Asahi: October 15,2008)
  The U.S. government on Saturday removed North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism. Before Washington announced its decision, President George W. Bush contacted Prime Minister Taro Aso and promised his continued support of Japan's efforts to resolve the issue of North Korea's past abductions of Japanese citizens. Bush's message to Japan was clear: We understand your concerns (about the abduction issue) but there is no other choice. continued ...

GlobalTalk21

• Shoichi Nakagawa’s Choice of Regrettables Is Not by Accident
  Tuesday, October 14, 2008
  The English-language media seized on the “extremely regrettable” comment that Shoichi Nakagawa, Finance Minister and well-known hardliner, made with regard to the U.S. delisting of North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism and took it as the expression of Japanese displeasure. There was one article that even speculated that Japan might stop the U.S.-DPRK agreement at the Six-Party Talks. In fact, Mr. Nakagawa’s words had served only to let off steam. That should have been clear from the circumstances and the wording. continued ...

Washington Post

• U.S. Move on N. Korea Assailed in Japan
  Monday, October 13, 2008; Page A18
  Nuclear Plant's Dismantling To Resume, Pyongyang Says
  By Blaine Harden, Washington Post Foreign Service
  TOKYO, Oct. 12 -- A day after the Bush administration removed North Korea from its terrorism blacklist, the country announced that it would resume tearing down its main nuclear plant, and South Korea welcomed the move as a step toward ending its next-door neighbor's nuclear program.
  But in nearby Japan -- where North Korea's kidnapping of Japanese citizens is a festering national sore that politicians dare not neglect -- the decision to take the country off the list of state sponsors of terrorism was condemned by family members of the abductees. These relatives are well-known and much-honored in Japan, and their opinions have been a powerful force in crafting Japan's hard-nosed policy toward North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. continued ...

Observing Japan

• The US finally goes through with delisting North Korea
  Sunday, October 12, 2008
  The thinkable is finally the actual.
  After more than a year since it became plausible for the US to remove North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism as a reward for cooperation in negotiations over the North Korean nuclear program, the US State Department has announced that it will remove North Korea from the list. With the global financial system melting down, this move appears to have been timed in the hope that it would receive less scrutiny than it would otherwise. The US move may also been in response to signs that North Korea may be preparing another nuclear test. continued ...

China's New Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles

Reports of China's new Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles have recently appeared in Western news sources. A few articles are highlighted below, in chronological order.

New Chinese Missiles Target the Greater Asian Region
by Richard Fisher, Jr.
International Assessment and Strategy Center
Published on July 24th, 2007

China Developing Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles
by Wendell Minnick
Defense News
Published: 14 January 2008

Missile Threat Helped Drive DDG Cut
Zumwalt Class Could Not Down Chinese Weapons
by Christopher P. Cavas
Defense News
Published: 4 August 2008

Navy Reacts To Missile Threats
Posted by Bill Sweetman
Aviation Week
at 8/14/2008 7:00 AM CDT

US reacts to China's carrier killer
by Sam Roggeveen
The Interpreter, Weblog of the Lowy Institute for International Policy
6 days ago

What will be the impact of the Chinese ASBM on the US-Japan alliance?
by Tobias Harris
Observing Japan
Thursday, August 21, 2008

China’s New Anti-Ship Missiles and U.S. Forces in Japan
By Graham Webster
TransPacifica
August 22, 2008, 01:55 am UTC+8

Guam, Okinawa, and the fate of realignment

from Observing Japan (Tobias Harris)

The Joint Guam Program Office, the US Department of Defense office responsible for drawing up plans for the expansion of US military facilities on Guam to accommodate the forthcoming influx of US military personnel, has a new website.

For a look at the scale of the on-base construction project — the project to which the Japanese government will contribute — the JGPO has a draft of its master plan (PDF) available that shows the extent of the task at hand.

Meanwhile, Japanese democracy may have dealt its latest blow to the realignment as the Okinawan voters delivered control of their prefectural assembly to the opposition.

The DPJ, which currently has no representative from Okinawa in either chamber of the Diet, increased its representation in the prefectural assembly from one to four in this election, and is looking for ways to enhance its electoral performance in Okinawa. Not surprisingly, it has staked out a position opposing the relocation of the US base at Futenma to Nago city, an integral step in the bilateral roadmap for realignment. As Hatoyama Yukio said Monday, "The emphasis of the DPJ and other opposition parties has been that the transfer should be not to Nago city but outside the prefecture...First we are groping for a transfer outside the prefecture, and after that we are aiming for transfer outside the country."

With a DPJ or DPJ-led coalition government a distinct possibility in the near future, US authorities should steel themselves for the inevitable calls for revision of the realignment roadmap that would accompany the DPJ's ascension to power. The DPJ's "Okinawa Vision" is a bit dated; released in 2005, it does not appear to have been edited to acknowledge the promulgation of the 2006 roadmap. But the document shows a DPJ hostile to the idea of continuing US presence in Okinawa — and somehow I don't think the "transfer to the mainland first, then transfer out of the country" model would be politically tenable (cf. Iwakuni). At the same time, the DPJ is willing to consider POMCUS, the prepositioning of material configured in unit sets, to enable Okinawa to provide surge capacity for the US Military in the event of a crisis in the region.

That said, as long as the DPJ contains a multiplicity of views on security policy and the alliance, its position on Okinawa will likely be tempered by the need to hold the party together.

But the reality remains: the more Japanese democracy evolves, the more the US-Japan alliance will come under public scrutiny, the more the public will seek to revise or abandon deals made by LDP governments in the absence of oversight. The US military and the US government can either resist the change, or they can accept it and embrace the need to make their case directly to the Japanese people — and accept that more radical change in the configuration of US forces in Japan may be necessary in the future.

[Note: Yukio HATOYAMA is a Member of the House of Representatives (7th Term, Hokkaido 9th District) and DPJ Secretary General]

Trouble at the tip of the spear

Sunday, March 23, 2008
Tobias Harris

Most of the concerns about the lack of progress in implementing the 2006 US-Japan realignment agreement have focused on political troubles in Japan, as Tokyo has struggled to get local governments involved in the relocation of US forces in Japan to accept the terms of the 2006 agreement. With the change of government in Iwakuni removing an obstacle (and, in accordance with Tokyo's tit-for-tat tactics, resulting in the restoration of frozen subsidies to Iwakuni) and the environmental survey at Camp Schwab in Okinawa proceeding, albeit irregularly, attention is now shifting to Guam, the receiving end of the realignment agreement.

A look at Guam shows that even if the Japanese side of the process was proceeding smoothly, the US still has substantial work to do to prepare Guam to host an additional 40,000 US service personnel, dependents, and contractors, a substantial increase from the 13,000 who are there presently (in addition to 173,000 civilians).

The stakes of the Guam buildup are enormous. For Guam's citizens, the expanded military presence will mean a massive boon to the territory's economy. For the US military, Guam will become an important hub for the Navy, Air Force, and Marines, a transformation already underway as far as the Air Force is concerned. Contractors are undoubtedly excited about the projected $13 billion price tag, a number that will likely increase. But preparing the island for the massive influx of US forces will require cooperation among the federal government, the Japanese government, Guam's government, and the US military — and for the moment, cooperation has been elusive, raising questions about whether the project will begin in 2010 as scheduled.

The Hill, a Capitol Hill publication, highlighted an additional problem: Madeline Bordallo, Guam's congressional delegate, is struggling to build a coalition that will support funding for the project. The article notes that Ms. Bordallo is having a particularly hard time gaining support in the Senate, where Guam has no representation. (Another problem is that many lawmakers know nothing about Guam, beginning with its location.)

Federal funding is indispensable, because this project is not just a matter of military bases. The influx of personnel will entail major improvements in the island's infrastructure, which is already stressed due to its position in Typhoon alley and a surprisingly costly snake problem. It will entail new homes and schools. (The Washington Post reviewed the infrastructure and funding problems in an article last month.)

What does this mean for the Japanese government? According to the 2006 agreement, of course, Japan is obligated to pay $6 billion towards the transfer of Marines to Guam, meaning that Tokyo will be paying for this massive construction project. Undoubtedly Washington is eager to receive Japanese funds. But given the coordination problems that have hampered the process to date, and the oversight problems that will undoubtedly dog the process in the future, is Japanese money worth what the Japanese contribution will cost in terms of efficiency? The debate in the Diet last year over Japanese fuel contributions that may have been diverted to the Iraqi campaign was in a sense a preview for the debate that will surround the use of Japanese funds in Guam. While most of the contribution will be in the form of loans from the Japan Bank of International Cooperation (JBIC), the GOJ's $2.8 billion direct contribution will come under intense scrutiny from the opposition — and if the DPJ and other opposition parties manage to form a government, the 2007 law authorizing the use of Japanese funds could be repealed (if the DPJ's opposition to the law's passage is any indication).

Admittedly, though, the efficiency gains for releasing Japan from its obligations are the least important argument in support of this idea, because as noted above the process is inefficient as is.

I think that the next president should offer to renegotiate the 2006 agreement and to release Japan from its financial contribution as a gesture of goodwill and a signal that the next administration will mark the beginning of a new, more equitable era in the alliance. For the Bush administration, a closer alliance has meant an alliance in which Tokyo is more subservient to Washington. The next administration can break from the past by recognizing Japan's financial difficulties and freeing Tokyo from having to pay for construction on Guam. While the Japanese financial contribution will be missed, particularly as the price tag grows, the change in tone that would result from renegotiation would yield long-term benefits from US-Japan cooperation (instead of the ill will associated with the current arrangement).

Meanwhile, the next president should make preparations on Guam a priority for US Asia policy and use presidential power to solve the coordination problems currently hampering the construction project, pressuring Congress to appropriate funds for the construction in order to expedite the process. (And the US might as well finance it from deficit spending and let China pay for the construction.)

Tobias Harris
I am an American, Chicago-born, and a fledgling Japan/East Asia specialist, who until recently worked as an aide to a member of the Japanese Diet. I have been published in a variety of publications, including the Wall Street Journal Asia, the Far Eastern Economic Review, and J@pan Inc. I can be contacted at observingjapan@gmail.com.