Peter Alford, Tokyo correspondent |
July 21, 2009
PRIME Minister Taro Aso's Cabinet this morning endorsed his plan to call an August 30 election that is likely to tumble his Liberal Democratic Party out of government for only the second time in 54 years.
Mr Aso will dissolve the House of Representatives later today, in preparation for a campaign beginning officially on August 18 but in reality now well under way, with the opposition Democratic Party of Japan building a huge lead in opinion polls.
After a succession of bad losses in recent regional and city elections, most polls now show the DPJ heading the LDP by 2-1 margins and similar distances between new opposition leader Yukio Hatoyama and Mr Aso.
The trends are so pronounced they raise a possibility the DPJ, which held only 112 of 480 seats in the old House, could win a simple majority, though it's more likely Mr Hatoyama will need a coalition with several small parties to govern.
Established 11 years ago, the DPJ has never been in government, while the LDP has been out of power only once in its existence, for 10 months after it lost the 1993 general election.
Mr Aso, 68, who has led the LDP and the government since last September, is currently being sheeted with most of the blame from within his party for the acute deterioration.
Elected to lead the party at virtually the same moment the global economic crisis crashed the Japanese economy, Mr Aso had been expected by his supporters to call an election almost immediately.
However, he decided to delay while passing a Y14.7 trillion emergency economic package in May and then delay further hoping the measures could take hold in the electorate before the poll date.
The political and economic rebounds failed to eventuate and last week, the LDP executive had to work frantically to choke off a move backed by almost a third of the party's MPs to convene a meeting at which Mr Aso's leadership could be challenged.
However, the party's serious decline started well before Mr Aso took over _ almost three years ago, in fact, when the last politically successful prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi retired 12 months after leading the LDP to a smashing election victory.
The 2005 result is preserved in the House which dissolves today: LDP 303 seats, its coalition partner New Komeito 31, DPJ 112, Communist Party 9, Social Democrats 7, minor parties 7, independents 9 (2 vacancies).
However, Mr Koizumi's two predecessors, Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda, both resigned in failure within 12 months and in July 1997 the LDP lost control of the Upper House for only the second time in its history.
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