Nakima: Base Relocation is Difficult

August 6, 2010, 11:42 AM JST

Okinawa Gov. Writes DPJ Secretary-General Base Relocation is Difficult (in Japanese): Resistance in Okinawa to plans to relocate the U.S. Marines base at Futenma to another location within the island chain remains robust, with Governor Hirokazu Nakaima meeting DPJ Secretary-General Yukio Edano Thursday at the Diet to deliver a formal written statement describing the government’s plan to relocate Futenma to the Henoko area in the city of Nago as “extremely difficult to accept”. (Source: Yomiuri)

沖縄知事「辺野古は困難」と文書で民主幹事長に
特集 基地移設

　沖縄県の仲井真弘多知事は５日、民主党の枝野幹事長と国会内で会談し、米軍普天間飛行場の名護市辺野古への移設について、「県外移設の実現に期待する県民の声が高まっているなか、唐突に（日米合意が）行われた。誠に遺憾で受け入れは極めて困難」とする文書を渡した。

　日米合意後、県が政府や政権与党に、文書で「困難」と伝えたのは初めて。６日には菅首相や岡田外相、北沢防衛相にも提出する。

　知事は会談後、報道陣に「名護市長が『ノー』と言っているのだから辺野古移設は厳しい。だが、（負担軽減策など）評価すべき点は評価する」と語った。

（2010年8月5日20時22分 読売新聞）

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/news/20100805-OYT1T00881.htm

Weakened Kan Faces Okinawa Deadlines

JULY 11, 2010, 8:15 A.M. ET
By DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI And YUKA HAYASHI

TOKYO — After getting badly bruised in a tough national election, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan soon has to turn to the politically charged issue of a U.S. military base on Okinawa, a complex matter that forced the resignation of his predecessor just over a month ago.

While the base wasn't a prominent factor in the campaign, Sunday's results could make it harder for the weakened Mr. Kan to keep the promises the Japanese government made to the Obama administration. Mr. Kan told the U.S. government that he would move forward on the plan aimed at keeping a large Marine presence on the southern island.

The first test comes at the end of August, the deadline the last Japanese Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, promised Washington that he would meet to reach agreement over details of the controversial base location plan, including configuration and construction methods. Mr. Kan has pledged to follow Mr. Hatoyama's commitments on the matter. In the following months, local elections in Okinawa could further lock local politicians into opposing Tokyo's attempts to move the American base to a new community.

The tensions revolve around a 2006 agreement reached between the two countries to reshuffle U.S. troops in Okinawa to make them more politically acceptable to the local population. The agreement calls on the U.S. to move 8,000 Marines to Guam by 2014 and shift part of an existing Okinawa helicopter facility from a densely populated area to a rural part of the island. The idea is to diminish local hostility to the Marine presence on the island, stoke by a rape case and a helicopter crash.

While the deal does reduce the number of Marines on Okinawa, it leaves thousands of Marines on Okinawa, and it doesn't go far enough for many Okinawans, who want the base moved off the island entirely. The ruling Democratic Party of Japan had last year endorsed that view and promised Okinawan base opponents it would support their cause. But Mr. Hatoyama changed his position under pressure from the U.S.

The issue didn't get much attention in an election campaign largely dominated by domestic issues, such as Mr. Kan's pledge to raise the national sales tax to help cut the national debt. The political parties that Mr. Kan is likely to invite into a new ruling coalition have either endorsed the U.S. plan, or haven't made an issue of opposing it.

In that sense, Mr. Kan may be more free than Mr. Hatoyama to move forward in implementing the U.S. agreement. Mr. Hatoyama's coalition included the left-leaning Social Democratic Party of Japan, which strongly opposes the U.S. military presence in Okinawa—and which left the coalition when Mr. Hatoyama reversed course.

But even with support from coalition partners, the issue requires a strong leader to push implantation over powerful local opposition. And Mr. Kan's political capital appears to have been badly sapped by the vote that saw his party lose seats.

Looking to smooth ties frayed with Washington under Mr. Hatoyama, Mr. Kan pledged at the very outset of his administration that he plans to abide by the latest bilateral agreement and called the decades-old security alliance the linchpin of his foreign policy. But the challenge he now faces is demonstrating a commitment to implementing the base relocation and repairing relations with the U.S., while working to shift public sentiment on the issue in Okinawa where the pact is so deeply unpopular that the DPJ chose not to run its own candidate on the southern island.

Sheila Smith, a senior fellow for Japan at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the sense of betrayal and anger by Okinawans toward the central government is so strong that changing sentiment will be very difficult.

"The situation is probably the worst it has ever been in terms of political sensitivity," said Ms. Smith, who has followed the Okinawa issue closely.

In a Friday statement asking Japan and the U.S. to review the base-relocation agreement, the Okinawa prefectural assembly said the pact went "over the heads" of the locals and ignored the protests of the people who want the base moved off the island.

On July 2, the mayor of Ginowan City, the current home to the Marine base, said his city was considering suing the Japanese government for neglecting to remove the danger posed on its citizens from the air base. The city also plans to seek financial compensation for the damage it says has been suffered by its residents.

The mayor, Yoichi Iha, has become a national figure with his eloquent opposition to the base. He is among the potential candidates for a November race to choose a new governor of Okinawa, an important role since that person must approve the start of construction for a new facility.

Along with the gubernatorial election, Nago, the coastal city where the proposed base would go, is holding an election on Sept. 27 for its assembly council. If both elections are dominated by vocal opponents of the base relocation, it could undermine the agreement.

For his part, Mr. Kan has sought to ease tensions. Last month, he traveled to Okinawa and apologized to the people of the island during a ceremony at a peace memorial: "From here on forth, I promise to work harder in order to ease Okinawa's burden and eliminate the danger of hosting the base."

Mr. Kan tempered his remarks by saying that the U.S. military presence on the island has helped to foster peace and stability in the region. At every turn, Mr. Kan has continued to emphasize the importance for the U.S.-Japan alliance.

"Kan has been very careful not to say anything in public that indicates any daylight between his position and the U.S. position," said Daniel Sneider, associate director for research at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. Mr. Sneider sees Washington also making a more concerted effort to address the local opposition with more diplomatic efforts.

Also, both leaders seem eager to improve communication channels. President Barack Obama invited Mr. Kan to the White House for a visit if he chooses to address the United Nations General Assembly in September and Mr. Obama is scheduled to come to Japan for November's Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Yokohama.

FOCUS: Japan Kan's Summit Debut May Help DPJ At The Polls

JUNE 23, 2010, 3:34 A.M. ET
By Kenneth McCallum

TOKYO (Dow Jones) -- Naoto Kan's debut on the international stage later this week will come at a perfect time for Japan's new prime minister: the Group of Eight and Group of 20 summit meetings will be held right before key elections, and his attendance could help the ruling party at the polls.

At the meetings, to be held Friday-Sunday in Canada, Kan will explain to counterparts his economic plan, which aims to reduce Japan's mammoth debt while maintaining growth.

The 63-year old prime minister, who took office June 8, is also expected to hold one-on-one meetings with world leaders, including U.S. President Barack Obama.

Analysts say Japanese leaders often get a bump up in poll ratings after summits, as voters react favorably to seeing their leaders working with global counterparts. Elections for the Upper House of Parliament are scheduled for July 11.

Attending the summit "will have a marginal positive impact," says Gerald Curtis, professor of Japanese politics at Columbia University. "The sense of comfort with Kan will grow if people think he can represent the country effectively abroad."

Also helping Kan is the contrast to his predecessor, Yukio Hatoyama, who quit after eight months on the job. Unlike Hatoyama, Kan is seen by the public as a strong leader with a clean image, and U.S. officials appear to be more comfortable dealing with the Kan administration than its predecessor on security issues.

Hatoyama stepped down as leader in early June following his botched effort to relocate a controversial U.S. military base in Okinawa. Kan told President Obama he would solve the base issue and that the alliance with the U.S. will remain a cornerstone of Japan's foreign policy.

On economic policy, too, Kan is blazing a different path than his predecessor.

Highlighting his more fiscally austere stance, Kan this week unveiled a plan to try to balance Japan's budget over the next decade by capping fiscal spending and considering raising the consumption tax rate. At the same time, he has released a growth strategy aimed at generating 3% nominal and 2% real average growth over the next 10 years by encouraging areas such as health care and the environment.

"Aiming for both growth and fiscal rebuilding is possible, and that's the choice Japan is about to make," he said at a news conference Monday. "I want to express this clearly (at the summit), and it would be great if other countries can use what we do as an example."

"He'll try to have some visibility there as one of the leaders who's pressing for coordinated, fiscally responsible policy on the part of all the G-20 countries," Columbia's Curtis said.

Even if Kan's trip is a success, it still might not be enough to give his Democratic Party of Japan a victory at the polls: Voters initially welcomed Kan's intention to lift the 5% consumption tax rate on the perception that it would improve Japan's fiscal health. But after Kan said he'd consider doubling the rate, support ratings for his administration fell nine points to 50%, according to a poll in one local paper.

The DPJ has 116 seats in the Upper House now, and 54 of those will be up for election. Kan said Tuesday he hopes the party will win more than 54 seats, close to the 60 that would give it an outright majority. That would make Kan's job easier, allowing the administration to pass legislation through both chambers, as the DPJ already has a large majority in the Lower House.

Then again, the DPJ could end up losing seats. But competing parties are unlikely to win outright either, meaning the DPJ will need to form a coalition to get bills passed in the Upper House, some analysts say.

"There won't be any winners. Everyone will be losers," said Minoru Morita, a Tokyo-based political analyst.

An Older, Wiser DPJ

June 16, 2010, 8:54 PM JST
By Yoree Koh

The ruling Democratic Party of Japan will unveil Thursday afternoon its “manifesto” of promises for next month’s national elections.

It is likely to be a document markedly different from the one the party released in advance of its landslide victory in last year’s campaign — a platform that the party found impractical in government, and vexed leaders who ended up breaking one pledge after another. Now comes the older, wiser DPJ.

As Prime Minister Naoto Kan tries to steer the party back to the people’s heart, he and his brain trust are expected to backtrack or soften the party’s stance on a range of major issues that include U.S.-Japan relations, fiscal policy and social welfare programs. The party’s last manifesto, in August 2009, was issued in the midst of campaigning for the historic lower house election that swept the longtime opposition party to its throne — and brought the DPJ to power for the first time.

Now one prime minister and eight months of experience as the ruling party later, Mr. Kan and his cohorts are angling their position so that manifesto a la Kan reads more like a realistic menu of government pledges rather than a transcript lifted from a beauty pageant.

The item that is most likely expected to undergo changes is the DPJ’s position on the U.S. military presence in Okinawa, the headlining issue that cost its last leader Yukio Hatoyama his job. Mr. Hatoyama abruptly resigned soon after his failure to renegotiate a 2006 pact between the U.S. and Japan to relocate the military base and reduce overall troop presence, a DPJ campaign cornerstone that led to his eventual downfall.

“Based on the U.S.-Japan agreement, we are dedicated to reducing the burden on Okinawa,” said Mr. Kan in remarks to an upper house session Tuesday making clear that he will implement the agreement struck on May 28, according to the Yomiuri (in Japanese). The newspaper slyly noted the comments sounded more like an LDP sound clip.

China will likely get its own section in the new manifesto. While it was lumped together with South Korea to create a East Asian community, the sophomore DPJ administration will demand “China be transparent in its national defense policy” in part to explain its military buildup activities, according to the Yomiuri.

Turns out, ambition doesn’t come cheap. Last year’s pledge to provide 26,000 yen ($284) in monthly child allowances is another key policy expected to undergo a makeover. Japanese households started receiving 13,000 yen for each child of junior high school age or younger this year, but tight budget realities will likely keep the party from increasing the amount further. The 2009 manifesto estimates the plan would cost 5.5 trillion yen over the next three years.

One of the few texts to survive the great edit of 2010 is, let’s hope, its pledge to “realize world peace and prosperity.” Hot air, yes but not a line that needs the attention of a red pen.

The Real Futenma Fallout

JUNE 16, 2010
By MICHAEL AUSLIN

Mr. Kan can't ignore the damage his predecessor did to the U.S.-Japan security alliance.

A great sigh of relief erupted in Washington and Tokyo Friday when Prime Minister Naoto Kan reaffirmed his commitment to the United States-Japan security alliance. In particular, defense officials focused on Mr. Kan's promise to stick with a 2006 agreement with the U.S. to move a Marine air wing from one part of Okinawa Island to another. But even so, there remain fissures in the U.S.-Japan relationship that could erupt into further crises for the alliance.

Senior Japanese military officials I've recently interviewed believe former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama set back Tokyo's relations with its own citizens in Okinawa by at least a decade by waffling on the 2006 deal, and that the opposition to U.S. bases in Japan, emboldened by the former prime minister's position, could endanger much broader bilateral military relations between the two countries. This bigger story has received almost no attention in domestic or foreign press, but needs to be understood by those dismissive of the recent spat's importance.

The 2006 agreement to move the Marine air wing at Futenma to Camp Schwab in the northern part of the island, and 8,000 Marines to Guam from Okinawa, was just one part of a broader realignment of U.S. forces in Japan. In the view of senior Japanese military leadership, however, the actual centerpiece of the 2006 agreement is the expansion of Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Iwakuni, located in Yamaguchi Prefecture, in the west of Japan's main island, Honshu.

MCAS Iwakuni already hosts several Marine air squadrons, including the only American F/A-18 Hornet squadron permanently based abroad. Under the 2006 agreement, the USS George Washington's fighters, which comprise the navy's only permanently forward-deployed air wing, will relocate to Iwakuni by 2014 from the more congested Naval Air Facility Atsugi, located close to Tokyo. In addition, a squadron of Marine Corps KC-130 tankers will also vacate Futenma for Iwakuni. In their stead, a squadron of Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces surveillance planes, P-3s, will leave Iwakuni for Atsugi.

All this might sound confusing, but the planned realignment will in essence reduce the chances of catastrophic accidents happening in heavily populated areas at both Futenma and Atsugi, and will build up the less-populated Iwakuni base.

Here's the rub: The U.S. Department of Defense has made it clear that, unless the entire 2006 realignment plan goes forward, no individual pieces will be set in motion. And it all depends on moving the Marine helicopters out of Futenma, which has long been a source of political contention between Tokyo and Washington. The Japanese government, moreover, is committed to moving its surveillance planes to Atsugi, but that move probably won't happen if the American carrier air wing stays put.

Japanese military officials worry that this year's protests in Okinawa could have spillover effects, inspiring protesters around Atsugi to demand a reduced American presence, and possibly even agitating against the government plan to move Japanese planes there. Moreover, Iwakuni's mayor might reject the new burden of potentially hosting the George Washington's air wing. That, in turn, would embolden antinuclear protesters in Yokosuka, the U.S. Navy's main base, to step up their ongoing pressure to move the nuclear-powered George Washington, the Navy's only permanently forward deployed aircraft carrier, out of Japanese waters.

This worst-case scenario would be a series of simultaneous, grassroots movements against the U.S. military presence in Japan that could potentially put fatal stress on the bilateral security alliance and effectively isolate Japan militarily in the western Pacific. Given Mr. Hatoyama's fate when he botched this issue, politicians now are more likely to respond to public demands or they will be replaced by those who do. The resulting political clash would either reaffirm tight ties with Washington or lead to endemic paralysis in Japan's national security establishment.

Given that the U.S. has permanently forward deployed ships and planes only in Japan, any scenario like the one sketched out above could significantly weaken U.S. capability to operate in the western Pacific, and thus call into question U.S. credibility as the underwriter of regional stability at a time when a crisis is brewing on the Korean peninsula and China continues to flex its naval and air muscle. Anyone concerned about that scenario, even if unlikely, realizes that the next half-decade of U.S.-Japan relations will have to go back to basics: rebuilding trust in the relationship, agreeing on a common set of objectives in Japan's waters and throughout Northeast Asia, and strengthening a commitment to upholding the alliance's military capabilities. The good news is that Japan's bureaucrats and military leaders remain more committed than ever to revitalizing the alliance. Whether politicians on both sides of the Pacific are willing to follow them, however, is another matter.

No one believes that Washington and Tokyo are about to end their half-century-old alliance over an airstrip on an island in the middle of the ocean. But no one imagined, either, that a carefully crafted, decade-long negotiating process would be so carelessly upended by short-term political calculations. Prime Minister Kan can't afford to ignore the fissures opened by his predecessor and should work to heal them.

Mr. Auslin is director of Japan studies at the American Enterprise Institute and a columnist for WSJ.com.

Japan's Premier Aims for Longer Stay

JUNE 4, 2010, 10:11 P.M. ET
By YUKA HAYASHI

Kan, With Broad Backing and Eclectic Resume, Officially Ascends; Not Making Waves on Okinawa

TOKYO — In the 1970s, Naoto Kan was a resourceful physics graduate who invented a machine to calculate mahjong scores. In the 1990s, he was an underdog lawmaker who pilloried bureaucrats for exposing thousands of Japanese to HIV-tainted blood. Over the past decade, he has been known for his quick temper and for napping on the parliament floor.

Now, lawmakers of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, who elevated Mr. Kan to prime minister Friday, hope he will demonstrate a different quality: staying power.

In a show of surprising unity at a party election Friday, Mr. Kan gathered 70% of the votes of the DPJ's 422 lawmakers, beating Shinji Tarutoko, a relatively unknown member of Japan's lower house of parliament. Several powerful and much younger DPJ members viewed as Mr. Kan's rivals, including Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada and Transport Minister Seiji Maehara, pledged their support. The DPJ controls the parliament, sealing Mr. Kan's ascent.

Mr. Kan, a DPJ founder who has served as deputy prime minister and most recently as finance minister, is Japan's fifth prime minister in less than three years. His predecessor, Yukio Hatoyama, formally resigned Friday after less than nine months in office after breaking his campaign promise to remove a controversial U.S. base from Okinawa. The short terms of other predecessors delayed efforts to solve chronic problems such as spiraling government debt, slow economic growth and rising joblessness among young people.

Mr. Kan signaled he will stick to the Okinawa deal. He also said Friday that he aimed to push through his plan to scale back the privatization of state-run Japan Post Holdings, which includes huge banking and insurance arms, a policy that some view as unfriendly to business.

He will also likely continue with the economic policy stance that he took as finance minister. The new prime minister prefers a weak yen, which would bolster exporters' profits and help to fight deflation. He has been one of the leading voices warning of the dangers of deflation and has pushed the Bank of Japan to take more aggressive measures against falling prices. He has also hinted that Japan needs to raise its consumption tax from the current 5% rate, an idea that goes against the DPJ's campaign pledge last year but has earned praise from economists.

Mr. Kan said Friday he would try to break the stagnation that has ailed Japan for over two decades. "We can achieve a strong economy, a strong fiscal condition and strong social security at the same time," he said as he accepted his party's stewardship.

Mr. Kan is expected to unveil his cabinet, which will likely include the members of the previous one, on Tuesday.

He inherits a DPJ that took power in September amid a wave of popularity, ending a half-century rule by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party. Since then, the party's support has plummeted amid Mr. Hatoyama's inability to deliver his Okinawa promise and a fund-raising scandal that embroiled top party strategist Ichiro Ozawa, who stepped down as secretary general earlier this week. Popular support for the DPJ, over 70% last fall, plunged to around 20%.

The resignation of Messrs. Hatoyama and Ozawa instantly improved the popular support for the party to 27%, according to a poll by the Asahi Shimbun daily. Respondents named Mr. Kan as the party's most appropriate candidate.

Mr. Kan's staying power will depend on a large degree on his ability to capitalize on his reputation as a strong orator and party uniter in Japan's divisive political landscape. Mr. Kan— who lives in a 680-square-foot apartment in a Tokyo suburb and reported $45,000 in financial assets earlier this year—also enjoys a reputation as a clean, egalitarian politician.

His first test comes next month when Japan elects members of its upper house of parliament. The DPJ has a huge majority in the more powerful lower house, but a big loss in the upper house election would force the party to rely on coalition partners with different policy views.

A key to that vote is Mr. Kan's relationship with longtime DPJ powerbroker Mr. Ozawa. Mr. Kan has maintained a cordial relationship with Mr. Ozawa in recent years—the two are said to be longtime partners in Go, a classic Chinese game—but the question now is whether Mr. Ozawa, now out of the party's power structure, will withdraw his influence. The lawmakers who voted for runner-up Mr. Tarutoko on Friday are those seen as loyal to Mr. Ozawa.

"If Mr. Kan can survive the upper house elections, he has a good chance of staying in power until the next general elections" in 2013, said political sciences professor Jun Iio, of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

Mr. Kan's quick temper has earned him the nickname Ira Kan, or "Kan the irritable." An opposition politician dubbed Mr. Kan the King of Napping, referring to the times he has been caught napping on the parliament floor, a habit common among older politicians in Japan.

Critics say Mr. Kan's policy views have appeared radical or outdated at times. "Mr. Kan hails from citizen's movement and his stance on diplomacy has never been clear," LDP leader Sadakazu Tanigaki said after Mr. Kan's appointment, which he called a "stale tactic of changing the front cover before the elections."

In foreign policy, Mr. Kan appears to have learned from Mr. Hatoyama's failed bid to reduce the U.S. troop presence on Okinawa. In the past few days, he has repeated that the relationship with the U.S. is the "core" of Japan's foreign policy.

"My basic stance is to abide by the bilateral agreement with the U.S., while reducing the burden on Okinawa, in accordance with the agreement," he told reporters after his appointment.

In a statement, the White House welcomed the choice of Mr. Kan to lead "an important friend and ally." President Barack Obama "is committed to maintaining excellent cooperation with the new Japanese government," National Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer said.

Mr. Kan was born in Yamaguchi prefecture in western Japan in 1946, a son of a glass-company executive. He studied physics at the Tokyo Institute of Technology and graduated in 1970. Around that time he picked up a taste for mahjong, a four-person Chinese tile game in which the score—and often, a winner's payout—is determined by a complicated point system.

To handle the calculation, Mr. Kan built a machine "using a combination of transistors" and applied for a patent in 1973, says Katsuyuki Takahashi, an employee at the Mahjong Museum in East Tokyo, which displays a photo of Mr. Kan's device.

Mr. Kan's career in politics started in the mid-1970s when he served as a campaign manager for Fusae Ichikawa, a prominent women's rights activist. Elected to parliament in 1980 after three failed bids, he was long a member of a small party split off from the Socialist Party, before joining a centrist party that, after a series of mergers, became the DPJ.

Mr. Kan became a national hero in 1996, when he was health minister hailing from a small party in coalition with the LDP. He successfully ran a campaign to expose a government cover-up of the distribution of HIV-tainted blood products.

In an famous incident, when Mr. Kan met the mother of a victim who had died of AIDS, he kneeled in front of the young man's framed photo, pressed his hands in prayer and cried. A few months later, the drug maker executives and a senior bureaucrat were arrested and settlements with the victims were signed.

—Andrew Monahan and Kenneth McCallum contributed to this article.

Kan Favorite in Japan Premier Race

JUNE 3, 2010, 1:34 P.M. ET
By MARIKO SANCHANTA And TAKASHI NAKAMICHI

TOKYO — Naoto Kan, the man certain to become Japan's next prime minister, underscored the importance of the U.S.-Japan relationship, calling it the "foundation" of Japan's diplomacy, in a signal that he won't backtrack on a recent pact between the two countries to keep a large American military base on the island of Okinawa.

But in a news conference to announce his candidacy, Mr. Kan, the current finance minister, also underscored the importance of China to Japan, calling the relationship with its neighbor as "equally important" as the relationship with the U.S. In terms of an economic policy, Mr. Kan—who is set to succeed Yukio Hatoyama, who resigned abruptly on Wednesday—offered few specifics, but made clear that he wouldn't necessarily place growth over fiscal discipline.

Mr. Kan said he will make a "big and sustained" effort to reduce the burden of the southern island of Okinawa for hosting U.S. military bases. But he also said he would "take into consideration the [recent] U.S.-Japan agreement" to keep a Marine air station in the prefecture. He added: "I believe the Japan-U.S. relationship is the foundation of Japan's diplomacy. ... The course we need to take is to maintain a trusting relationship with the United States and at the same time to consider China as equally important. I think that's the right course for Japan's future as well."

Mr. Kan is set to become Japan's fifth prime minister in less than four years, an embarrassing statistic for the world's second-largest economy, which has had a procession of new leaders nearly every year since the popular Junichiro Koizumi ended a five-year tenure in 2006. The Democratic Party of Japan swept to power eight months ago, ending a grip on power by the dominant Liberal Democratic Party that lasted for more than a half-century.

Despite a promise to transform the predictable and rigid nature of Japanese politics, Mr. Hatoyama resigned Wednesday amid plunging support over breaking a campaign pledge to move U.S. troops off Okinawa. The base controversy has revolved around where to move a Marine Corps Air Station currently located in a crowded urban area known as Futenma.

"The reason that [Mr. Kan] has distanced himself from the Futenma issue in the Hatoyama administration is that his opinion on that is different from that of Hatoyama. He is an extremely realistic person," said Toshikazu Inoue, a politics professor at Gakushuin University. "So, he has believed that the new government should stick to the deal agreed by the previous government on the diplomatic and security issues."

Mr. Kan, 63, has been a critic of Japan's powerful bureaucrats and is nicknamed "Ira Kan" in Japan, or "irritable Kan," due to his alleged short fuse. But he also has a sense of the irreverent: When he visited Iqaluit, Canada, for February's meeting of the Group of Seven leading nations, Mr. Kan delayed his closing news conference on Saturday so he and his aides could go dog sledding. Before becoming a politician, the former civic activist shot to fame in the mid-1990s when, as health minister, he exposed the bureaucracy's responsibility for infecting thousands of hemophiliacs with HIV-tainted blood.

Mr. Kan is a virtual shoo-in for the premiership, after the other top two potential candidates—Transport Minister Seiji Maehara and Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada—said they would throw their weight behind him. Democratic Party of Japan lawmakers will vote in a party election Friday morning and announce a leader shortly after lunchtime. That person will assume the premiership. A new cabinet will be formed the same day. On Monday, the winner will make a policy speech.

Shinji Tarutoko, 50, a little-known politician who heads up the House of Representatives Environment Committee, is set to run against Mr. Kan in Friday's elections. His candidacy, however, is seen as symbolic, so Mr. Kan isn't the sole candidate.

Mr. Kan, who has grown increasingly fiscally conservative over recent months as he watched Greece's debt problems rock global financial markets, signaled on Thursday that he will impose greater fiscal discipline in Japan. Since the Hatoyama administration was launched in September, it has largely focused on fixing the nation's economy, putting fiscal discipline on the back burner. The national budget it compiled for the fiscal year that started in April features record 92.299 trillion yen in spending and a record 44.3 trillion yen in new borrowing.

Mr. Kan pledged to finalize growth strategies and fiscal reform plans that the Hatoyama cabinet had been working on by the end of the month. "I have decided to run in [the election] to lead a campaign of implementing policy to break through 20 years of Japan's deadlocked situation," Mr. Kan said. "Unless we steer policy in a wrong direction, we can resuscitate the economy. We can correct the current state in which [government] borrowing seems to keep growing indefinitely."

Critics have said that Mr. Kan is a lightweight when it comes to his knowledge of economics. He once admitted, in a parliamentary session, to having read just 10 pages of Paul Samuelson's classic textbook—though it isn't clear whether he has read further since. In a post-cabinet-meeting news conference in February, Mr. Kan was asked about what he thought of the U.S. Fed's move to lift the discount rate, and said "it has caused the yen to weaken, so I don't think the move itself is negative to our nation's economy." A former senior ministry of finance official privately said: "The Fed's rate hike was good because it weakened the yen? What kind of finance minister would say things like that?"

Mr. Kan also suggested on Thursday that he may not give DPJ Secretary-General Ichiro Ozawa—the party's second-most-powerful man and chief election strategist—a key post in a new government or party management.

"Mr. Ozawa should stay quiet for a while, and that would be good for him, the DPJ, and Japanese politics," Mr. Kan said. "We have to value Mr. Hatoyama's feelings" that the DPJ should restart as a fresh party free from money scandals. Mr. Ozawa is set to step down from the current post Friday.

Japanese Prime Minister Accepts U.S. Base in Okinawa

By JACOB M. SCHLESINGER and JURO OSAWA
MAY 23, 2010, 2:35 A.M. ET

TOKYO — Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced Sunday that he will accept a controversial American plan for stationing troops in Japan, saying he was persuaded that the need to maintain an American "military deterrence" in an uncertain region forced to him to break one of his main campaign pledges.

Photo: Protesters shout slogans in front of the Okinawa government office Sunday in Naha, southern Japan, before talks between Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima.

Mr. Hatoyama made the announcement in Okinawa, where he apologized to the governor in a nationally televised meeting for failing to live up to his promise to reduce the American military presence on the southern island.

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama answers questions after talks with Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima in Naha, southern Japan, on Sunday.

"I had said I would try to relocate the base outside of Okinawa, but I was not able to keep my words," the prime minister said. "And for the difficulties that local people have had to experience, I would like to apologize to the Okinawan people," he added.

Calling the decision "heartbreaking" Mr. Hatoyama said that "with political uncertainties remaining in East Asia, we cannot afford to reduce the U.S. military deterrence. If we relocated the base outside Okinawa and outside Japan, that could undermine the U.S. Marines' functions."

Mr. Hatoyama said that, while he failed to keep his promise to reduce the Marine presence in Okinawa, he would still try to take measures to ease the burdens of hosting the American military. "In doing this, of course we must be as sensitive as possible to local life and the environment, and we will continue to discuss this with local residents," he said. \And he added that "we will try to shift more of the U.S. military training outside of Okinawa. For this we need other municipal governments in Japan to agree to cooperate in hosting such training." He said he would raise the issue at a meeting scheduled for this Wednesday with governors of other Japanese prefectures.



Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima told Mr. Hatoyama the decision was "extremely regrettable. This is very tough."

Mr. Nakaima chided Japan's leader for breaking his promise saying: "Since the general election, it was been almost part of DPJ's promise that the base will be relocated outside Okinawa and Japan," a reference to Mr. Hatoyama's Democratic Party of Japan.

Earlier this month, more than 15,000 protesters formed a human chain to protest the controversial U.S. Futenma marine air base in Okinawa, Japan. Video Courtesy of Reuters.

Okinawa Gov. Hirokazu Nakaima told Mr. Hatoyama the decision was "extremely regrettable. This is very tough."

The DPJ won a landslide victory over the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party last August, ending a half century of nearly unbroken one-party rule. The DPJ won after promising to change many longstanding LDP policies, including reducing the American troop presence in Okinawa that the LDP had long accepted as part of the post-war U.S.-Japan security alliance. That pledge helped the DPJ win heavily in Okinawa.

"Our disappointment is because of the huge gap between our expectations and what happened in this latest development," Mr. Nakaima said.

Mr. Hatoyama's reversal is likely to cause him some political headaches in Tokyo as well. The DPJ's hold on power includes a coalition with smaller parties, including the left-leaning Social Democratic Party, which has come out strongly against the Okinawa basing plan. The SDP could depart the coalition in the coming days over the issue. While that wouldn't force Mr. Hatoyama to lose power, it could complicate his ability to get crucial legislation -- including a must-pass budget—through parliament.

Okinawa Timing: It's Complicated

MAY 11, 2010, 5:09 A.M. ET
By YUKA HAYASHI

It doesn't look the third time's the charm for Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and his long-simmering Okinawa policy.

Some key members of Mr. Hatoyama's cabinet acknowledged Tuesday the government is unlikely to meet its end-of-May deadline for resolving the deadlock on relocating U.S. troops in Okinawa. It will be the third self-imposed deadline on this issue to be missed by Mr. Hatoyama since taking office in September.

Caught between local opposition and pressure from Washington to stick with an existing bilateral accord, Mr. Hatoyama's government has struggled to meet its campaign promise to move troops from a controversial Marine base outside of Okinawa.

Still, Mr. Hatoyama, who has put his job on the line, has maintained he would forge an agreement by the end of the month, well ahead of key national elections in July. He and his ministers have been busy in the past few weeks trying to hammer out their "final" proposal, which looks eerily similar to one under the original accord. The plan, whose details have been trickling out in the Japanese media, has already met strong local resistance.

Photo: An anti-base activist holds up a placard reading "No Need the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma " before Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's Okinawa visit last week.

A couple of weeks ago, Mr. Hatoyama -- whose poll ratings have been slipping in part because of a reputation for indecisiveness -- boldly declared, "as a prime minister, I face every issue with a resolve to put my job on the line...that naturally includes the Futenma issue."

But now, with only 20 days left and no breakthrough in sight, some of his colleagues are again trying to move the goalpost.

"There are lots of supporters and lots of critics in the local communities," said Seiji Maehara, transport minister who doubles as a minister in charge of Okinawa. "It is impossible to get everyone on board before May 31." He and other ministers spoke Tuesday after they held a special meeting at the Prime Minister's residence.

Mindful of Mr. Hatoyama's earlier pledge, other ministers tried to explain no agreement doesn't exactly mean missing the deadline.

"I do realize the prime minister has said he would resolve the issue by the end of May," said defense minister Toshimi Kitazawa. "It all depends on how you define resolving the issue. If some negotiations are left to do after that, that probably can't be helped."

Mr. Hatoyama, who has made it a daily habit to speak to his press corps every morning, has been mum on Okinawa this week.

OPINION ASIA :: Japan Dissing

APRIL 21, 2010, 10:57 A.M. ET
By MICHAEL AUSLIN

Yukio Hatoyama's credibility in Washington is shot, and he has only himself to blame.

For an alliance that is more that half a century old, the U.S.-Japan relationship has had a surprising amount of ups and downs. Tokyo and Washington have at times praised each other, lashed out at each other, ignored each other, or, in their current phase, simply dismissed each other.

The cycle began in the early 1970s with the "Nixon shocks" that opened the United States to China and took the dollar off the gold standard, leaving Japan politically insecure and economically weakened. Trade tensions heated up in the 1980s and early 1990s, with threats of trade wars, sanctions and protectionism poisoning the relationship. Brief fears that Japan would become the next superpower led to breathless (and completely wrong) books with titles like "The Coming War with Japan." To Japanese, these years became known as the era of "Japan bashing."

They were succeeded in the 1990s by "Japan passing," a period in which America turned its covetous eyes from Japan to China, the new superpower-in-making. When then-President Bill Clinton visited China in 1998 for nine days and didn't even stop in Tokyo, Japanese finally understood that the era of Japan was officially over. Being passed over was in many ways harder for politicians and opinion makers to swallow than was the bashing, which at least allowed them the chance to fight back.

Now Tokyo and Washington have entered a new era, which I would like to call "Japan dissing." Due to its missteps and inability to present coherent policies to its main partner, the government of new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has earned the opprobrium of the Obama administration and is increasingly being ignored. Once Japan's political elites figure out how low their stock has sunk on the Potomac, they may well wish for the days of bashing and passing. They face a Morton's fork between being ignored or being seen as a problem to which there is little solution.

Many in Tokyo understand that Prime Minister Hatoyama brought this on himself by walking away from a 2006 agreement to relocate U.S. Marines on Okinawa and being unable to come up with an acceptable alternative. Most damningly, Mr. Hatoyama twice promised Mr. Obama personally that he would "resolve" the issue, thus putting his credibility on the line. Mr. Hatoyama has until the end of May to come up with a solution, but few in Japan or the U.S. believe he will pull a rabbit from his hat and find something that satisfies everyone. Beyond that, Mr. Hatoyama's grand statements about forming a new East Asian Community or playing a major role in climate change issues seem divorced from any political reality.

In short, Mr. Hatoyama's credibility is shot, and U.S. administration officials are increasingly dismissing the Japanese in private. At last week's nuclear summit in Washington D.C., the leaders of China, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia had warm and substantive discussions with Mr. Obama. Mr. Hatoyama was seated next to Mr. Obama at the formal dinner, but high-level sources relate that the conversation did not go well. Even though bureaucrats in both countries are quick to say that everyone still wants to get along, few in the Obama administration believe relations will get better anytime soon, and certainly not while Mr. Hatoyama remains in office.

Japan dissing is bad for Japan, bad for America and bad for Asia. Asian nations are nervously watching America's relations with its key ally, and are keenly attuned to any hint of a divergence between Tokyo and Washington. Some smaller nations reacted particularly badly to Mr. Hatoyama's East Asian Community announcement last year, since it seemed to exclude the U.S. That would leave China as the dominant nation in any new multilateral arrangement, a situation of which other countries in Asia are wary. A leader of a major Asian nation asked me personally how bad relations were between the U.S. and Japan, as capitals around the region are now waking up to the degree of strain in Washington-Tokyo ties.

What makes the current tempest so worrisome is that neither America nor Japan has any viable alternative to working with each other. The U.S. cannot maintain a credible military posture in the Asian region without its bases in Japan, and no other country is willing to step up to host American forces, no matter how much they want them in the region. And Japan, six decades after World War II, still finds itself without any other real allies in its own neighborhood. Without a close relationship with Washington, Tokyo would be even more isolated than it currently is, which is not healthy for the world's second-largest economy.

No one expects the alliance to fall apart, but the relationship will clearly be put on the back burner if Prime Minister Hatoyama cannot turn the situation around. This will require political skills he so far has shown no indication of having, including controlling his own government, reining in his coalition partners and figuring out how to get a workable base agreement with the Okinawans. Only then can he sit down with Washington. Until that point comes, or Mr. Hatoyama resigns, Japan dissing threatens to upend decades of stability and prosperity in Asia, bringing new uncertainties and tensions in a world already beset by too much strife.

Mr. Auslin, a columnist for WSJ.com, is director of Japan Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.

Lawmaker Pressures Hatoyama

By YUKA HAYASHI

TOKYO — Embattled Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama came under renewed pressure Wednesday as a senior lawmaker from his ruling party publicly called for his resignation if he fails to resolve a dispute over U.S. military bases in Okinawa before his self-imposed May deadline.

Kozo Watanabe, an influential elder of the Democratic Party of Japan, said Finance Minister Naoto Kan was the natural candidate to succeed Mr. Hatoyama if he were to step down. He added that Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada is a "hard-working and earnest politician" who enjoys strong voter support, but that his direct involvement in the Okinawa issue in his current capacity would make him an unsuitable candidate.

Mr. Watanabe stressed, however, that he hoped Mr. Hatoyama would find a solution to the relocation of the U.S. military facilities from the Futenma air station, so that the prime minister could serve a full four-year term. "I really hope Mr. Hatoyama will resolve the Okinawa issue with his own hands," he said at a news conference.

Despite a 2006 bilateral agreement with Washington to move the facilities from Futenma to a less crowded location within Okinawa, the DPJ promised voters last year the move would be to facilities outside of Okinawa and possibly outside of Japan.

The U.S., meanwhile, has insisted on sticking to the agreement, although last week State Department officials said they would listen to alternatives.

Mr. Watanabe didn't say how he thought the base problem should be resolved, but he called it the most difficult issue facing the Japanese government, and acknowledged the prime minister's limited options. "It was a mistake to include the promise to move the facility outside of Japan in the campaign platform before the elections," Mr. Watanabe said.

Mr. Hatoyama's aides didn't immediately respond to written questions Wednesday. Earlier this week, faced with similar criticism from outside his party, Mr. Hatoyama vowed to "fight with all my might and everything I have to deliver a successful result" on the Okinawa issue by the end of May.

Six months after the DPJ ousted a long-serving conservative party and took power, Mr. Hatoyama faces attacks from inside and outside his center-left party for problems that also include criticism of his economic policies, mixed messages from his administration and scrutiny of his campaign fund-raising practices. Experts say the Okinawa base issue in particular could deal a critical blow to his administration, as he has repeatedly flip-flopped on his position and created tension in Tokyo's relationship with Washington.

Mr. Watanabe didn't mention any other challenges facing the prime minister, but he said: "People's trust in the prime minister has eroded. There have been situations where he said to turn right in the morning, turn left in the afternoon and turn right again in the evening."

A poll by the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper published Monday showed support for Mr. Hatoyama's cabinet fell to 33% from 41% a month ago and from 75% at the time of his inauguration.

Mr. Watanabe, 77 years old, has held various ministerial positions and served as a top party official until recently. He urged DPJ Secretary-General Ichiro Ozawa to step down as party president this past June on worries that public scrutiny of Mr. Ozawa's political fund-raising would hurt the party's chance of winning the national elections in August. The party went on to win a landslide victory.

Mr. Hatoyama appears increasingly entrenched over the Okinawa issue. Some had hoped the issue would be resolved at top-level meetings between the two nations in coming weeks. But the Japanese media reported Wednesday that Mr. Ozawa and his parliamentary mission wouldn't visit Washington later this month, despite an earlier invitation from the U.S.

Mr. Hatoyama is visiting Washington next week to attend a nuclear-security summit but he isn't among the handful of national leaders President Barack Obama is meeting in bilateral sessions, according to White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs. Press representatives for the DPJ and the foreign ministry said no final decisions have been made regarding those visits.

U.S. Told Okinawa Base Plan Impossible

MARCH 31, 2010
By YUKA HAYASHI

TOKYO — Japan told the U.S. that relocating a controversial U.S. military facility in Okinawa was impossible, setting a stage for more thorny discussions that could further erode the popularity of the six-month old government of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.

In a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton late Monday, Japanese foreign minister Katsuya Okada asked Washington to consider alternative proposals for relocating the Futenma air station, a Marine Corps facility located in a crowded urban area on the southern Japanese island.

Mr. Hatoyama's center-left government took power last September with a promise to the Okinawan voters to scrap a 2006 bilateral accord between the U.S. and Japan that calls for closing Futenma and moving its facilities to a new location in a rural section of northern Okinawa. But the prime minister, suffering sharp declines in popular support, has been criticized sharply in Japan for his handling of the issue, failing to announce a workable alternative and missing his own deadline for settling the controversy. U.S. officials have repeatedly said the existing plan is the only option, giving Mr. Hatoyama a big challenge.

"I said [to Mrs. Clinton] we fully recognized the U.S. position that the existing plan was the best," Mr. Okada told reporters after meeting her on the sidelines of a Group of Eight foreign ministers' meeting near Ottawa. "But given the current situation, I explained to her, there are too many difficulties surrounding that plan."

Phillip J. Crowley, assistant secretary of state, said the U.S. hasn't changed its position, but that it was willing to listen to Japan's current thinking. "We are listening attentively to what Japan is telling us, and we'll continue the conversations in the weeks ahead," Mr. Crowley said at a news conference Monday.

Okinawan lawmakers and residents have been stepping up their opposition to the construction of new facilities, saying the island already shoulders a hefty burden of hosting numerous U.S. military facilities. Some 40,000 U.S. troops are stationed on the island. Others say Mr. Hatoyama is hurting Japan's critically important bilateral ties with Washington by trying to overturn the exiting agreement.

Japan's media have suggested the possibility of a May Crisis for the Hatoyama government—that a failure to settle the Okinawa base issue could pressure Mr. Hatoyama to step down. Hurt by political funds scandals involving himself and party stalwart Ichiro Ozawa, the support rating for the government has fallen to 36%, according to a poll by the Nikkei business daily Monday, nearly half what is was at his inauguration in September.

Mr. Okada reassured Mrs. Clinton that Tokyo intends to settle the issue by end of May, a self-imposed deadline Mr. Hatoyama set after missing his first deadline in December. Mr. Hatoyama has said the government would unveil its alternative proposal by the end of March, before kicking off formal negotiations with local residents and the U.S. But he suggested Tuesday any announcement may be delayed.

"What's important is we are working hard every single day so we can present to everyone a solid plan by the end of May," Mr. Hatoyama told reporters.

Mr. Hatoyama and Mr. Okada didn't discuss details of Tokyo's new proposals for relocating Futenma, but Japan's major newspapers have reported recently that such plans include temporarily moving some of the functions of Futenma to multiple locations in and outside of Okinawa while building a permanent base offshore from the existing U.S. naval facility at White Beach in Okinawa.

Marines Reach Out To Japanese Public On Okinawa

FEBRUARY 19, 2010, 5:47 A.M. ET
By YUKA HAYASHI

TOKYO — As an impasse over a controversial military base in Okinawa strains bilateral relations, a senior U.S. military official said Friday the Marine Corps is stepping up efforts to convince the Japanese public of the importance of its presence on the southern Japanese island.

Lt. Gen. Keith J. Stalder speaks to WSJ/Dow Jones Japan Editor Jake Schlesinger about why he thinks the Japanese should let the Marines stay, the threat of North Korea and his efforts to improve Japanese public perception of the base.

Lt. Gen. Keith J. Stalder, Commander of U.S. Marine Corps Forces Pacific, said in an interview that while the Japanese are well aware of the direct military threat of North Korea missiles, they may not fully share the U.S. view of the broader "regional threat" that could undermine their nation's trade and economic activities.

To reach out more directly to the Japanese public, he said, the Marine Corps will roll out Japanese-language sites for the Web and cellphones—the preferred mode of information gathering for many Japanese.

"I think one of the things missing in the appreciation of regional security in the Pacific is an understanding how connected all these countries are, economically, financially and in other ways," Lt. Gen. Stalder said during his visit to Tokyo. "There is nothing that happens in the region that will not affect Japan in a very negative way if it's not contained quickly or prevented."

Lt. Gen. Stalder's interview with The Wall Street Journal was part of an unusual, and increasingly aggressive, public relations campaign by the U.S. government in Japan to try and persuade the Japanese people that a large American military presence remains essential in their country—particularly the Marines in Okinawa. He gave a series of other press interviews Friday following a speech in Japan earlier this week. U.S. Ambassador John Roos also gave a speech at a Japanese university recently focused on explaining to the Japanese the rationale for an ongoing U.S. troop presence here.

Some critics in both the U.S. and Japan have suggested that the Marines are no longer as important to the American projection of force in Japan as the Air Force and the Navy. Lt. Gen. Stalder disputed those arguments, saying the Marines in Okinawa serve as a deterrent to the threat of North Korea and are available for immediate deployment in case of emergencies in the region.

While he said he doesn't see China as a threat, its "phenomenal" military buildup is a concern. "A double-digit military budget increase in over 20 years vastly improved [China's military] capabilities and capacities, many in offensive functions" he said. "It's not clear to me what they intend to do there."

Lt. Gen. Stalder had earlier met Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada and Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa to discuss the bilateral alliance, including the fate of the Marine Corps Air Station Futenma, a helicopter base located in a crowded urban area of Okinawa that has become the focus of the local opposition.

The new government of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has struggled with the Futenma issue since taking power in September. A roadmap agreed upon between Washington and Tokyo's previous government in 2006 calls for the construction of a new facility on the less-populated northern coast of Okinawa in exchange for closing Futenma. But the locals and many members of the Hatoyama government oppose the new facility, holding up the broader military realignment plan. The U.S. has steadfastly asked Japan to stick with the roadmap.

Lt. Gen. Stalder said the best way to reduce the burden on the people of Okinawa is to execute the roadmap, which will give back 50,000 acres of land, move 8,000 Marines out to Guam and reduce noise and traffic.

"It's almost missing from the dialogue that the current roadmap does more to help the Okinawan people than anything we have ever done," he said.






More



• Okinawa Mayor Race May Hold Key


• Japanese Lawmaker Stands in Opposition


• Editorial: Okinawa Upset


• The Futenma Roadmap

U.S. Pushes for New Okinawa Site

By YUKA HAYASHI
JANUARY 29, 2010, 7:16 A.M. ET

TOKYO -- The U.S. stepped up its pitch to push through the construction of a controversial new military facility in Okinawa Friday, as Japanese leaders pledged to redouble their effort to solve the thorny bilateral debate on bases by the end of May. Yet a wide gap seemed to remain between both sides on the issue.

John Roos, U.S. ambassador to Japan, said in a speech here Friday that the U.S. is ready to take various steps to make its military presence more palatable to people in Okinawa, such as reducing noise or using the latest green technology to make its bases more environmentally friendly. Washington and Tokyo, he added, can also work together to help spur economic development on the island by taking advantage of its young and growing population and its strategic location close to the rest of Asia.

Repeating remarks of other senior U.S. officials, however, Mr. Roos said an existing bilateral accord on realignment of U.S. forces in Japan is the best option for reducing the burden on Okinawa. The ambassador emphasized the difficulty in finding a new site for relocating facilities from the Marine Air Station Futenma, a helicopter base located in a crowded urban area of the island.

Mr. Roos's remarks underlined the big differences remaining between the two governments on the Okinawa base issue, which has posed a surprisingly big challenge for the new leaders of the two nations, President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.

In its effort to make the bilateral ties more "equal," Mr. Hatoyama has pledged to review the existence of U.S. forces in Okinawa.

"Okinawa is becoming not less but more important for defense of Japan and maintaining peace in this region," Mr. Roos said in a speech at Tokyo's Waseda University. "The U.S. is mindful of Okinawa's historic experience and recognizes the needs to balance the concerns of the people of Okinawa against the island's strategic importance." Okinawa, which was controlled by the U.S. for nearly three decades after World War II, represents just 0.5% of Japan's land mass but hosts 75% of the bases used by the U.S. forces in Japan.

Mr. Hatoyama, meanwhile, stressed that the Japanese government will accelerate discussions about the relocation site for the Futenma facilities and make a decision by the end of May. The debate will aim at reducing the burden on the people of Okinawa, while keeping Japan's security alliance with the U.S. its core essence, he said.

In a policy speech to parliament, Mr. Hatoyama said the bilateral alliance has played an essential role in promoting peace and prosperity in the world during the 50 years since its implementation in 1960, not just for the defense of Japan. "Its importance will not change in the future," he said.

The speech came a day after Mr. Hatoyama insisted his government would find a way to reduce the U.S. military presence in heavily populated parts of Okinawa, despite the difficulty in finding an alternative site. The 2006 bilateral accord calls for closing Futenma and build a new facility on the coast of the rural town of Nago in northern Okinawa.

But the relocation plan faces growing local opposition and became even more difficult when a candidate opposing the new facility won a mayoral election in Nago on Jan. 24.

Editorial :: The Hatoyama Drift

OPINION ASIA
JANUARY 28, 2010, 9:28 A.M. ET

Okinawa's local election fallout shows the danger of wobbly leadership

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama says he wants to "rebalance" the U.S.-Japan defense alliance, but hasn't said how. Now, his lack of leadership is starting to create widening political rifts back home.

On Sunday the tiny town of Nago, Okinawa elected a mayor, Susumu Inamine, who wants to ditch a 2006 U.S.-Japan rebasing agreement to build a new air base on reclaimed land off the coast. Mr. Inamine doesn't have a formal veto over this national issue; Mr. Hatoyama will make the final decision. But his election still throws a wrench into an already tense bilateral relationship.

For that, Mr. Hatoyama has only himself to blame. Since taking office his administration has tried to appease both supporters of the rebasing plan and its opponents, who include several minority coalition partners. In Hawaii earlier this month, Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada told Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that "we must . . . further deepen this alliance" and announced new bilateral "consultations." Mr. Hatoyama promised in December to deliver a decision soon, and now says he will decide in May. On Monday, he said the Nago election reflected the "will of the people" and that the government committee examining rebasing will "start from scratch."

The longer the prime minister wavers, the more incentive minority parties and local Okinawans have to dig in their heels and demand further concessions. And the more Japan's ordinary citizens will worry that the U.S.-Japan security alliance is at risk, the more they'll lose confidence in their national leaders. Mr. Hatoyama's approval ratings are already hovering around 45%, and falling.

Honoring the original agreement would benefit both countries. The U.S. would get a new air base, the unpopular airbase in Ginowan would close, and the people of Okinawa would end up hosting fewer troops as 8,000 U.S. soldiers move to Guam. If the agreement doesn't go through Okinawa will be left with the status quo.

While it's true that Okinawans sometimes have a tense relationship with the troops they host, much of that tension is directed not at the U.S. but at Tokyo, whom they feel unfairly saddles them with the defense burden. Refusing to stand behind the agreement on Okinawa endangers Japan's relationship with the U.S., but it also undermines Mr. Hatoyama's credibility as a leader. That's a lesson the DPJ is learning the hard way.

Okinawa Upset

OPINION ASIA
JANUARY 25, 2010, 1:35 P.M. ET
By TOBIAS HARRIS


Sunday's election deals a blow to U.S.-Japan relations, but the damage isn't fatal.

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the U.S.-Japan alliance, but an election in the tiny city of Nago, Okinawa (population 59,742) may have unsettled the relationship. Nago is home to Camp Schwab, a Marine camp that is scheduled to be the site of a new American air base under the terms of a military realignment program agreed on by Japan and the United States in 2006. On Sunday, Nago elected a new mayor, Susumu Inamine, who opposes that plan. His victory has been interpreted as a victory for opponents of the 2006 agreement.

The biggest loser may have been the Hatoyama government, which campaigned last year on a promise to revisit the agreement but is now realizing the difficulty of finding an alternative. With Mr. Inamine's victory, the government will find it harder to retreat from its opposition to the 2006 roadmap, particularly given its sagging popularity and the corruption scandal surrounding Ichiro Ozawa, secretary general of the Democratic Party of Japan.

By the same token, Washington also lost Sunday. Some analysts have cautioned the Obama administration not to push the Hatoyama government too hard on Futenma, arguing that doing so could cause considerable harm to the alliance even if the U.S. were to get its way on the realignment of U.S. forces. With the election of Mr. Inamine the risks from pressuring the Hatoyama government have grown, not only because Washington will appear to be strong-arming a democratically chosen national government, but also because it would be pressuring that government to ignore a vote in a municipality directly affected by realignment.

Mr. Hatoyama has said that his government will make a decision on the 2006 agreement in May. In the meantime, the Obama administration must give serious thought to whether the 2006 agreement is worth poisoning the U.S.-Japan relationship. As it stands, Washington will either have to enlist the Hatoyama government as an ally in imposing the agreement on Nago—which seems like an unlikely partnership—or it will have to pressure both the Hatoyama government and the people of Nago to accept an agreement that neither desire.

The U.S. must bear considerable blame for insisting so strongly on an agreement that no Japanese government could sell to the Okinawan people for environmental, moral and historical reasons. While Washington would prefer to debate Futenma simply on the basis of strategic considerations, the reality is that for the people most affected by the 2006 roadmap, realignment is anything but a strategic question. The Okinawan people have been asked for too long to bear too great a burden—which includes the social and environmental costs of hosting more than half the U.S. forces in Japan—for them to accept the roadmap quietly, whatever its merits.

The election, moreover, is another reminder of the tension between the U.S.-Japan alliance and the development of Japanese democracy—or indeed democracy in any longtime U.S. ally, as the U.S. found when South Korea transitioned from one-party rule. The DPJ's victory in August, as the first unambiguous power transition from one ruling party to another in the postwar period, marked the first opportunity for the Japanese public to reconsider Japan's alliance with the U.S. While the DPJ is not opposed to the alliance—both the prime minister and Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada have stated their support repeatedly—the DPJ is opposed to how the alliance was handled by the Liberal Democratic Party. The DPJ alleges that the LDP ran the alliance behind closed doors and put the interests of the U.S. before those of the Japanese people, amounting to an unequal partnership between the two countries. Both the secret agreements on nuclear weapons under investigation by the Japanese foreign ministry and the 2006 roadmap are part of the DPJ's case against the U.S.-LDP alliance. And the vote in Nago is the latest sign that Japanese voters—at least in a city where the alliance is a local issue—buy the DPJ's argument that the relationship needs to be changed, at least as it pertains to them.

There is a silver lining here. Insofar as the Nago election makes the rejection of the 2006 roadmap more likely, this presents an opportunity for both Washington and Tokyo to step back and reconsider how the alliance should function and how it should be sold to the Japanese people in Japan's new democracy. The age when the alliance could be managed by bureaucrats and experts from both countries has passed.

The discussion now needs to include more voices from across Japan's political spectrum, from local governments as well as the elite ministries. It should be a two-way discussion, of course: the localities must learn to think in terms of national interests even as the U.S. government has learned to be more sensitive to local concerns. But the U.S. government needs to think harder about how to build support for the alliance, and not only in communities asked to host American forces. It must be able to explain plainly to Japanese citizens why they are there in the first place.

Ultimately the U.S. needs to worry less about the 2006 agreement, and more about building a sustainable foundation for the U.S.-Japan alliance by moving beyond the one-party regime that had been so amenable to U.S. interests for so long.

Mr. Harris, a former aide to a DPJ lawmaker, is a doctoral student in political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Japanese Mayoral Vote Turns Against U.S. Military Base

JANUARY 24, 2010, 8:55 A.M. ET
By ALISON TUDOR and YUKA HAYASHI

TOKYO -- An opponent of a proposed U.S. military base on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa won a closely fought mayoral election Sunday, according to Japanese media exit polls, putting the controversial project in jeopardy and threatening further strain on bilateral relations between the two allies.

The election, in the small rural town of Nago, hundreds of miles from Tokyo, was a de facto referendum on a plan by the U.S. government to adjust American military positioning in Okinawa, shifting resources away from heavily populated areas of the island to a more rural portion of the island.

The incumbent mayor, Yoshikazu Shimabukuro, had accepted the plan, while his opponent, Susumu Inamine campaigned against him largely over the base issue. "This election means that we will not allow construction of the new military camp," Mr. Inamine said in declaring victory.

Photo: Voters in the small Okinawan city of Nago went to the polls to choose their next mayor.

Washington had reached agreement on the plan with the previous Japanese government. But the current Japanese prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, who took office in September, has expressed reluctance to go ahead with the deal, saying repeatedly he wanted to "hear the voices of people of Okinawa." He has said he would make a final decision on the project in May.

Sunday's election doesn't necessarily kill the plan. The governor of the Okinawa and the national government could continue with the siting, over the objections of the community. But the vote will make it more difficult, politically, for Mr. Hatoyama to accept the U.S. demands.

The Obama administration has been putting steady pressure on Mr. Hatoyama over the past few months to stick to the agreement. But "the victory by the mayoral candidate opposing to host the new facility will naturally have a gravely negative impact on the existing plan," said Hitoshi Tanaka, a former foreign ministry official who has advised Mr. Hatoyama recently, and who is currently a senior fellow at the Japan Center for International Exchange, a Tokyo-based think tank, and.

Finding an alternative location will be "extremely difficult" for Mr. Hatoyama's government, he said, adding: "We spent the last 13 years looking but weren't able to find any such place."

Of the 33,000 U.S. troops stationed in Japan, around 21,000 are currently on Okinawa. The island's people have depended on U.S. bases to provide jobs and spur their economy. But they have also borne costs, including a 2004 helicopter crash at an island university and the 1995 rape of a local schoolgirl by three U.S. servicemen.

The U.S. has been struggling since those incidents to find a way to maintain its military presence in Japan while making its forces appear less intrusive, particularly in heavily populated areas of the country. The 2006 accord that was the focus of Sunday's mayoral vote involves building a new facility outside Nago for the Marine Corps in exchange for closing a helicopter base located in a crowded urban area.

But the new national government, led by the Democratic Party of Japan, put the plans on hold. Mr. Hatoyama, has said he wanted to see the result of the Nago election before making a decision on whether to go ahead with the relocation.

Nago is home to an existing U.S. Marine facility called Camp Schwab. The 2006 agreement calls for building a large V-shaped runway adjacent to Camp Schwab.

The base issue has long divided this town of 60,000. A majority of its voters rejected an airfield plan in a 1997 referendum. Since then, three mayors favoring the facility have won elections.

The incumbent mayor, Mr. Shimabukuro, advocated hosting the new facility because the local community will receive generous financial compensation. Tokyo, as part of its agreement to build the airfield, has pumped $900 million into Nago's economy to fund everything from a tax haven for financial back-office operations to a dolphin theme park.

The victor in Sunday's vote, Mr. Inamine, campaigned on a platform of wanting to encourage more tourism in Nago instead of counting on aid from Tokyo. The area has become a destination for mainland tourists who dive on its coral reefs and trek in its tropical forests. The waters off Camp Schwab are a feeding ground for dugongs, a marine animal related to manatees, that are in danger of extinction in Japan. Opponents of the new base say it would threaten that habitat.

—Makiko Segawa

U.S. Seeks to Defuse Sense of 'Crisis' in Japan Alliance

JANUARY 13, 2010
By JACOB M. SCHLESINGER

When Secretary of State Hillary Clinton meets her Japanese counterpart in Hawaii Tuesday, one mission will be tamping down the intensifying perception that a seemingly technical disagreement over the siting of an American military base is flaring up into broader tensions undermining the trans-Pacific alliance.

While the Obama administration is sticking to its demand that the new Japanese administration follow the terms of the military treaty signed by the previous Tokyo government, Washington is trying to lower the public heat surrounding the issue.

After originally pressing the Japanese government to resolve the issue by the end of last year -- a timetable Japan didn't follow -- U.S. officials say they're not seeking any specific date for a conclusion of the matter, and are willing to give prime minister Yukio Hatoyama more time to work through the issue, according to a senior Obama administration official.

Mr. Hatoyama's Democratic Party of Japan won a landslide electoral victory in August, ousting the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party. American officials welcomed the change after years of frustration with the paralysis of the LDP. But Mr. Hatoyama's new government has had a rocky start and has seen its popularity fall, in part because of the appearance of new tensions with Washington, which the Japanese press has taken to calling a "crisis."

Some critics have urged the Obama administration to take some of the pressure off Mr. Hatoyama on the basing issue -- which is mired in domestic Japanese political complications -- if the U.S. wants to help foster Mr. Hatoyama's longer-term success. Some U.S. officials blame the inexperience of Mr. Hatoyama and his aides for letting the issue emerge as a seemingly significant dispute.

"This is not to be confused with changing the subject, or papering over an ongoing issue," the Obama official said on condition of anonymity. "But it also reflects a determination that we're not going to be dragged into this public ultra-detailed nitpicking debate on the details and politics of Futenma," the official said, referring to the densely populated area where the controversial base is located.

The tensions have flared up as the 50th anniversary of the U.S.-Japan security treaty -- signed Jan. 19, 1960 -- draws closer. Commentators in both countries have suggested that the basing spat would mar the commemoration of the date.

U.S. officials say instead they're hoping to use the moment to try and put the current disagreement in a broader, less-hostile, context.

"As we approach the 50th anniversary of the signing of the peace treaty itself, we want to remind people about the big picture, to invite them to celebrate the strength, the accomplishments, the prospects for the U.S.-Japan alliance," the official said.

The current disagreement centers on the thousands of American troops stationed on the southern island of Okinawa, a presence that American officials say is essential for both U.S. and Japanese security, but which has become a political headache in Japan. The U.S. government had reached agreement with the LDP to reduce the footprint in Okinawa -- moving thousands of U.S. Marines to Guam and relocating the rest from Futenma to a more rural part of the island.

But the U.S.-LDP plan would still leave a sizeable American military presence in Okinawa, and Mr. Hatoyama campaigned on a promise to try to further cut the number of U.S. troops there. His government is made up of a parliamentary coalition that includes Social Democratic Party, a left-leaning party that staunchly opposes the Futenma relocation plan. If Mr. Hatoyama were to accept U.S. demands, he could lose his governing majority.

A U.S. State Department spokesman said Monday evening that Secretary Clinton would discuss Futenma with Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada -- but that would be part of a broader spectrum of talks.

"They will discuss a wide range of bilateral, regional and international issues, including base realignment. They'll also discuss plans for commemorating the 50 year anniversary of the U.S.-Japan security alliance. Furthermore, this will be a good opportunity to discuss North Korea, and engagement with China, Iran, and Burma," Gordon Duguid, the spokesman said.

"The U.S. has a broad and deep alliance and we will continue to work closely on a range of issues follow the meeting," he added.

Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A6