JULY 11, 2010, 8:15 A.M. ET
By DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI And YUKA HAYASHI
TOKYO — After getting badly bruised in a tough national election, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan soon has to turn to the politically charged issue of a U.S. military base on Okinawa, a complex matter that forced the resignation of his predecessor just over a month ago.
While the base wasn't a prominent factor in the campaign, Sunday's results could make it harder for the weakened Mr. Kan to keep the promises the Japanese government made to the Obama administration. Mr. Kan told the U.S. government that he would move forward on the plan aimed at keeping a large Marine presence on the southern island.
The first test comes at the end of August, the deadline the last Japanese Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, promised Washington that he would meet to reach agreement over details of the controversial base location plan, including configuration and construction methods. Mr. Kan has pledged to follow Mr. Hatoyama's commitments on the matter. In the following months, local elections in Okinawa could further lock local politicians into opposing Tokyo's attempts to move the American base to a new community.
The tensions revolve around a 2006 agreement reached between the two countries to reshuffle U.S. troops in Okinawa to make them more politically acceptable to the local population. The agreement calls on the U.S. to move 8,000 Marines to Guam by 2014 and shift part of an existing Okinawa helicopter facility from a densely populated area to a rural part of the island. The idea is to diminish local hostility to the Marine presence on the island, stoke by a rape case and a helicopter crash.
While the deal does reduce the number of Marines on Okinawa, it leaves thousands of Marines on Okinawa, and it doesn't go far enough for many Okinawans, who want the base moved off the island entirely. The ruling Democratic Party of Japan had last year endorsed that view and promised Okinawan base opponents it would support their cause. But Mr. Hatoyama changed his position under pressure from the U.S.
The issue didn't get much attention in an election campaign largely dominated by domestic issues, such as Mr. Kan's pledge to raise the national sales tax to help cut the national debt. The political parties that Mr. Kan is likely to invite into a new ruling coalition have either endorsed the U.S. plan, or haven't made an issue of opposing it.
In that sense, Mr. Kan may be more free than Mr. Hatoyama to move forward in implementing the U.S. agreement. Mr. Hatoyama's coalition included the left-leaning Social Democratic Party of Japan, which strongly opposes the U.S. military presence in Okinawa—and which left the coalition when Mr. Hatoyama reversed course.
But even with support from coalition partners, the issue requires a strong leader to push implantation over powerful local opposition. And Mr. Kan's political capital appears to have been badly sapped by the vote that saw his party lose seats.
Looking to smooth ties frayed with Washington under Mr. Hatoyama, Mr. Kan pledged at the very outset of his administration that he plans to abide by the latest bilateral agreement and called the decades-old security alliance the linchpin of his foreign policy. But the challenge he now faces is demonstrating a commitment to implementing the base relocation and repairing relations with the U.S., while working to shift public sentiment on the issue in Okinawa where the pact is so deeply unpopular that the DPJ chose not to run its own candidate on the southern island.
Sheila Smith, a senior fellow for Japan at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the sense of betrayal and anger by Okinawans toward the central government is so strong that changing sentiment will be very difficult.
"The situation is probably the worst it has ever been in terms of political sensitivity," said Ms. Smith, who has followed the Okinawa issue closely.
In a Friday statement asking Japan and the U.S. to review the base-relocation agreement, the Okinawa prefectural assembly said the pact went "over the heads" of the locals and ignored the protests of the people who want the base moved off the island.
On July 2, the mayor of Ginowan City, the current home to the Marine base, said his city was considering suing the Japanese government for neglecting to remove the danger posed on its citizens from the air base. The city also plans to seek financial compensation for the damage it says has been suffered by its residents.
The mayor, Yoichi Iha, has become a national figure with his eloquent opposition to the base. He is among the potential candidates for a November race to choose a new governor of Okinawa, an important role since that person must approve the start of construction for a new facility.
Along with the gubernatorial election, Nago, the coastal city where the proposed base would go, is holding an election on Sept. 27 for its assembly council. If both elections are dominated by vocal opponents of the base relocation, it could undermine the agreement.
For his part, Mr. Kan has sought to ease tensions. Last month, he traveled to Okinawa and apologized to the people of the island during a ceremony at a peace memorial: "From here on forth, I promise to work harder in order to ease Okinawa's burden and eliminate the danger of hosting the base."
Mr. Kan tempered his remarks by saying that the U.S. military presence on the island has helped to foster peace and stability in the region. At every turn, Mr. Kan has continued to emphasize the importance for the U.S.-Japan alliance.
"Kan has been very careful not to say anything in public that indicates any daylight between his position and the U.S. position," said Daniel Sneider, associate director for research at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University. Mr. Sneider sees Washington also making a more concerted effort to address the local opposition with more diplomatic efforts.
Also, both leaders seem eager to improve communication channels. President Barack Obama invited Mr. Kan to the White House for a visit if he chooses to address the United Nations General Assembly in September and Mr. Obama is scheduled to come to Japan for November's Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Yokohama.
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