More dissent from within LDP over Aso's election fumbling

June 27, 2009

Prime Minister Taro Aso is attempting to replace the top officials of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a desperate bid to help the party regain support from voters as two major local elections are drawing near, party insiders say.

Also behind the move is Aso's fear that he will lose an opportunity to dissolve the House of Representatives for a snap general election at his own discretion if the party suffers a setback in the July 5 Shizuoka gubernatorial election and the July 12 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election.

LDP legislators, increasingly worried about their prospects of winning the Lower House race, are expressing opposition to the prime minister's risky move, which could cause a split within the party or even trip himself up.

Aso met with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his official residence on Wednesday night. During the meeting, Abe strongly demanded that the party leadership be reshuffled and that the Lower House be dissolved before the metropolitan assembly race.

The Shizuoka gubernatorial race has proven to be a close fight between the LDP and opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) candidates even though it was initially believed that the LDP has a higher chance of winning.

Alarmed by the news, Aso has begun considering more media-friendly candidates for the roles of party secretary-general and chairman of its Policy Research Council. The party leadership reshuffle is expected to take place by July 2 at the earliest, after the Cabinet approves the government's budgetary request guidelines.

Attention will then be focused on the timing of the dissolution of the Lower House and a general election.

An LDP insider says he interprets the prime minister's remark that the Lower House will be dissolved "in the not so distant future" as a hint that Aso may dissolve the chamber before the metropolitan assembly race and hold a general election on either July 26, Aug. 2 or 9.

However, several LDP politicians reacted coolly to Aso's decision to reshuffle the LDP leadership with an eye to an early general election.

"A reshuffle will be only disadvantageous to us. I don't think we can win an election if the Lower House is dissolved now," says Shuzen Tanigawa, secretary-general of the General Assembly of the LDP Members of the House of Councillors.

Taku Yamamoto, an LDP member of the Lower House who is holding a petition demanding that the LDP presidential race scheduled for September be moved forwards, postponed his visit to his home constituency in Fukui Prefecture on Friday to discuss Aso's move with other LDP legislators in Tokyo.

The party's presidential race can be advanced only if it is supported by at least 216, or over half of 431 LDP legislators and heads of its prefectural chapters. Yamamoto says more than 100 have already expressed support for his demand. However, Yamamoto fears that Aso may be forced to dissolve the chamber in utter desperation, which could result in the LDP losing.

If Aso ignores his demand and goes ahead with dissolution, he will propose that a party presidential race be held before the campaign for a Lower House election kicks off and fight under the new leader, while allowing Aso to stay on as prime minister until the general election.

LDP legislator Yasufumi Tanahashi, who chairs the LDP's panel on public utility organizations, openly demanded that Aso step down after the prime minister refused to comply with his demand that national public servants be banned in principle from landing post-retirement jobs in public utility organizations they once supervised.

"If you can't comply, I'd like you to resign," Tanahashi told Aso at the prime minister's office on Friday.

Yamamoto has teamed up with Tanahashi in demanding that the party leadership race be held at an earlier date, a sign that calls urging Aso to step down is growing louder within the party.

Ruling coalition partner Komeito has strongly warned Aso against dissolving the Lower House before the metropolitan assembly race: "If he dissolves the chamber before the metropolitan assembly election, we have no choice to tell them, 'It's all over.'"

While confusion over his "not-so-distant-future" remark is growing within the ruling coalition, Aso failed to give a clear-cut reply about the time of the general election when he met with reporters Friday.

"I simply said "in the not so distant future" because I was asked (about the timing of the dissolution). I'll decide on the timing at an appropriate time," he said.

(Mainichi Japan) June 27, 2009