Kohei Kobayashi / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writer
The reshuffle of the Cabinet and top ruling party posts being mulled by Prime Minister Taro Aso could end up undermining his leadership by antagonizing anti-Aso elements within the party, observers say.
Aso is reportedly considering the move to underscore his intention to dissolve the House of Representatives at a time of his choosing, while also preempting moves to oust him as Liberal Democratic Party leader.
However, caution over any changes expressed even by his allies means a reshuffle might be difficult to realize.
Former Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa highlighted the divisions in the party when he publicly demanded Friday that Aso step down as prime minister.
Aso also came under pressure the same day from Yasufumi Tanahashi, an LDP lawmaker and former education, science and technology minister, when he met with Aso at the Prime Minister's Office.
Tanahashi reportedly asked Aso to immediately move to ban the practice of amakudari--in which retired central government officials are given posts at public-service corporations--saying he should step down immediately if he did not feel able to implement such a move.
Aso is said to have angrily rejected Tanahashi's suggestion.
According to sources, Aso is considering dissolving the lower house to allow a poll to take place on Aug. 2 or 9, and is set to make the final decision after attending the July 8-10 Group of Eight summit meeting in Italy and reviewing the results of the July 12 Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election.
However, some Aso aides have recommended dissolving the lower house before the July 3 official announcement of the Tokyo election, believing that heavy LDP and New Komeito losses in the Tokyo poll could spark moves to oust Aso.
Aso was said in a recent meeting with one of his ministers to have struck a combative note over the dissolution issue, stating that he will dissolve the lower house at his own discretion if he thinks a challenge to his leadership is imminent.
But speculation of an early dissolution has been fueled by the decision to bring forward to July 1 the planned Cabinet approval of the guidelines on ministries' requests for budget allocations for fiscal 2010.
Aso is said to believe that a reshuffle of key LDP leadership posts will boost the party's prospects at the next election, and there has been internal criticism of the performance of the LDP's three top officials, including Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda--particularly their apparent failure to secure public support for LDP policies.
Some within the LDP also have compared the performance of the three with leading main opposition Democratic Party of Japan figures such as DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama, Secretary General Katsuya Okada and Acting President Naoto Kan.
With this in mind, some aides close to Aso believe a leadership reshuffle would bolster the party's prospects against the DPJ.
Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Yoichi Masuzoe and LDP Acting Secretary General Nobuteru Ishihara, both popular with the public, are said to be viewed as good prospects for leadership posts.
However, there is no sign that Aso has laid the groundwork for securing internal consensus for changes.
LDP General Council Chairman Takashi Sasagawa, whose job could be under threat in any leadership reshuffle, dismissed reports of a possible reshuffle Friday. "I don't think the prime minister would say something like this," he said.
Commenting on the speculation, one LDP faction leader questioned who would want to be given a position in the administration, likening it to a sinking ship.
"A reshuffle would be shocking for those being replaced and would cause a lot of problems for anyone who took over," a lawmaker and senior official in the House of Councillors said.
Hosoda on Friday also expressed unhappiness over the prospect of an early dissolution, saying it would be difficult to abandon Diet deliberations on bills such as one to revise the organ transplant law and another to introduce cargo inspections.
LDP Election Bureau Director General Makoto Koga also is reluctant to dissolve the lower house early.
"We submitted a bill to the Diet to revise the Organ Transplant Law," he said Friday at a lecture in Toride, Ibaraki Prefecture. "But it would just be scrapped if the lower house is dissolved [in the middle of Diet deliberations]."
Shuzen Tanigawa, LDP upper house secretary general, also indicated his reluctance to see the lower house resolved early, saying at a press conference Friday, "The decision not to dissolve [the lower house] is the prime minister's prerogative as well as the decision to do so."
Some lawmakers close to Aso also believe hanging the threat of early dissolution over party members would only boost the anti-Aso forces.
Former Secretary General Tsutomu Takebe, who opposed a reshuffle during a liaison meeting of party executives, said it was too late to reshuffle top party or Cabinet posts.
With the Cabinet's approval ratings in the doldrums, observers say it will be difficult for the LDP to be competitive in the lower house election, and if Aso cannot decide on when to dissolve the lower house even after the Tokyo assembly election he faces a narrowing window of possible dates, with Aug. 30 or Sept. 6 being the most likely.
Aso is not expected to step down voluntarily. But if he fails quickly to improve the LDP's support, observers say internal moves to unseat him are likely to accelerate.
(Jun. 28, 2009)
Posts
