2009/12/23Thursday will mark the 100th day in office for Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, who took power Sept. 16 amid lingering summer heat.
In his inaugural speech, Hatoyama said he was "shaking with emotion over the fact that Japanese history is changing."
The euphoria surrounding the new government is gone.
A recent Asahi Shimbun survey shows the Hatoyama Cabinet's job approval rating has fallen below 50 percent after weeks of steady decline. In particular, voters take a dim view of Hatoyama's leadership, according to the poll.
That's not surprising, considering the awkward and inefficient manner in which he has handled some vital issues, including the proposed relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa Prefecture.
That is not to say Hatoyama's attempts to change the way this country is governed have all failed.
The sweeping review of the budget requests of ministries carried out by the government's task force to eliminate wasteful spending reminded voters that open debate on the use of taxpayer money is a fundamental function of democracy.
The Hatoyama administration has also broken with the tradition of entrusting the development of policy entirely to bureaucrats.
The administration's efforts to reinvent the way the government operates by radically reforming the postwar administrative system are beginning to produce results.
But the government has yet to make any specific proposal concerning its promises of big policy shifts, as summarized by such slogans as "from concrete to focusing on humans" and "creating a society where all people have places to be and roles to play."
Above all, Hatoyama has failed to make decisions on a number of crucial issues related to Japan's alliance with the United States and the budget for next fiscal year, partly due to considerations for the Democratic Party of Japan's coalition partners. His dithering on these high-profile issues has earned him a reputation of being indecisive.
No team Hatoyama
The reason for his poor leadership performance is clear.
He has been running the government without making a serious effort to establish a solid system for political leadership in policymaking, which was supposed to be a defining theme for the DPJ government.
Hatoyama and key members of his Cabinet, such as the two principal aides working in the Prime Minister's Official Residence--the deputy prime minister and the chief Cabinet secretary--and the finance and foreign ministers should have acted as an effective, close-knit policy team. But cooperation among them has been surprisingly weak.
The much-criticized compartmentalized structure of the government, in which loyalties within ministries hinder coordinated policymaking, has remained mostly intact, although the top political officials of the various ministries--ministers, senior vice ministers and parliamentary secretaries--have become the key players in the game, replacing bureaucrats.
As for the promise of centralized policymaking based solely on the government rather than coordination with the ruling party, it is rapidly becoming a dead letter. This is because DPJ Secretary-General Ichiro Ozawa, who was supposed to concentrate on elections and parliamentary business, has started wielding huge influence on policy decisions.
The primary reason for the administration's miserable track record lies in its failure to establish clear rules for making policy decisions after reducing the role of bureaucrats.
The government has also failed to deliver on its pledge to inject more transparency and accountability into the political process.
Hatoyama's explanations about revisions to policy proposals in the party's election manifesto, let alone his response to a scandal over disguised political donations to his fund-raising group, have been grossly inadequate.
We understand that the DPJ, which is in power for the first time, is dealing with one new experience after another. But it cannot count on the people's patience and tolerance for too long.
While the Cabinet's poll ratings have sagged, the DPJ still enjoys relatively high approval ratings in excess of 40 percent. In contrast, public support for the Liberal Democratic Party remains weak. What do these figures tell us?
Voters comfortable with their decisions
It seems the criteria with which voters evaluate the government's performance are changing. Let us explain.
Two factors are at play.
First, the DPJ government was elected directly by voters through a democratic election. Voters voluntarily opted for a power transfer from the LDP to the DPJ.
It was the first such power transfer in modern Japanese politics, which started with the Meiji Restoration in the late 19th century.
It was totally different from the many past changes of government in which voters, through general elections, only approved new prime ministers, either named by the emperor to form a Cabinet during the prewar period or elected by votes among Diet members under the current Constitution.
The new DPJ government can claim far greater democratic legitimacy than any of the LDP administrations following the government led by Junichiro Koizumi. All of the three LDP prime ministers after Koizumi took the top job without winning a public mandate to govern.
It seems that many Japanese voters are aware of their responsibility for their choice.
While they are feeling frustration about the prime minister's incompetence, voters don't yet feel the need to turf the DPJ from power.
Here are signs of a shift in public attitudes toward democracy, from simple entrustment to active involvement.
Secondly, manifesto-based election campaigns have taken solid root.
Voters now make their electoral choices by examining the competing manifestoes of the parties, which are their packages of policy promises.
A party's election manifesto is its covenant with the public, and the ruling party basically remains bound by its manifesto for up to four years until the next Lower House election.
It was customary under the LDP's rule that the prime minister was replaced, followed by a major policy shift without holding a Lower House election. This was often accompanied by a power struggle within the party and backdoor wheeling and dealing.
In this age of manifesto-based elections, however, this kind of policy change would be criticized as a breach of contract.
Public support for the DPJ has not tumbled because voters are now embracing the new political reality in which they can show their verdict on the ruling party's performance by deciding whether or not to give it a fresh mandate in the next Lower House election.
This maturing of political consciousness among Japanese should be promoted carefully.
Concerns about Ozawa's tactics
What is troubling is that DPJ bigwig Ozawa is putting top priority on the party's victory in the Upper House election next year.
He appears determined to cause the LDP to break up.
A party has every right to do its utmost to win an election. The upcoming poll is all the more important for the DPJ because it doesn't have a majority in the chamber.
But what voters want to see is neither the DPJ's permanent rule nor the emergence of a new dominant ruling party.
This is not an either-or choice between pursuing political ideals and pursuing power. If, however, the DPJ tilts heavily toward the pursuit of power at the expense of the integrity of its political ideals and policies, the historic change of government will end in disillusion.
It is still just 100 days since the party took over the reins of power. The first regular Diet session under the DPJ government is set to begin early next year.
The Hatoyama administration has yet to face a real test of its ability to govern the nation.
--The Asahi Shimbun, Dec. 22(IHT/Asahi: December 23,2009)
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