October 28 2008 21:47 TOKYO, Oct. 28 KYODO
Prime Minister Taro Aso declared on the eve of taking office in late September that his ''mission'' is to call a House of Representatives election in a bid to give the ruling coalition a boost against the opposition bloc in the divided Diet.
But a month into his job, the 68-year-old prime minister appears to be hoping to cling to his post for as long as possible in the face of unexpectedly severe global economic conditions, and speculation is rife that the election will be postponed until next year.
Postponing the election until next year, however, would not necessarily benefit Aso, as tough confrontations with the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan and possible friction with his Liberal Democratic Party's coalition partner, the New Komeito party, over the election schedule would follow, some pundits say.
Aso has not publicly said he will avoid an early election, but some experts think he may delay it all the way until the current term of lower house members ends in September 2009, while trying to notch up some notable achievements in the meantime.
Aso, an outspoken former foreign minister, was elected as LDP president in late September to become prime minister, reflecting hope in the ruling party that his strong name recognition would bring victory at the next general election which was then widely expected to be called in the near future.
In a monthly publication issued in October, Aso made comments in an article, which he said he wrote shortly before taking office, that implied his determination to dissolve the lower house possibly at the beginning of the ongoing extraordinary Diet session that was convened late September.
''At the opening of the Diet, I would like to openly present my policies and the LDP's policies to (DPJ) President (Ichiro) Ozawa and ask him whether he is for or against them, and go to the people,'' Aso said in the publication, while adding that his ''first mission is to seek the judgment of the public.''
But the deepening U.S.-triggered credit crisis and tumbling global stock prices have apparently made him think twice, leading him to say he will prioritize implementing economic measures over calling an election.
His approval rating at the time of his government's inauguration also proved to be lower than the initial rating of his predecessor Yasuo Fukuda, and is further slipping to around 40 percent in some media polls now.
Mikitaka Masuyama, a Keio University professor specializing in politics, said that Aso seems to have had in mind from the start the two options of either holding an election shortly after drawing voters' attention through a ''festive'' LDP presidential election or delaying it until the term for the lower house members expires.
''And the U.S. financial problem gave him a reason to choose the latter option,'' he said.
With the key Nikkei index closing Monday at its lowest level in 26 years in a reflection of the current global economic crisis, a source close to the prime minister said, ''Speedy reaction is vital for market measures. There is no time to think about a dissolution (of the House of Representatives).''
But delaying the election could also mean running the risk of being forced into dissolving the lower house for a snap election without being able to find a suitable time amid bleak economic prospects.
''If we miss the right time for a dissolution, there will be no option (left) and the administration will just crumble,'' said a senior House of Councillors member of the ruling coalition who is involved in Diet affairs.
Aso is the third prime minister from the LDP who has not had to face a general election since the ruling coalition of the LDP and New Komeito secured a two-thirds majority in the lower house in September 2005 under then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
In contrast to the popular Koizumi's five and a half years in office, his successors Shinzo Abe and Fukuda both suddenly announced their resignations after just less than a year in office, having faced sluggish support ratings and struggled in the Diet following the ruling coalition's loss in the July 2007 upper house election.
With an eye on the next general election, Aso is likely to continue focusing on delivering results, especially on the economy, such as by seeking to implement additional pump-priming measures in response to the global financial crisis.
He has already succeeded in passing a fiscal 2008 supplementary budget and in filling a post in the Bank of Japan leadership which had been vacant for the last six months due to political wrangling, thanks to the more cooperative approach the DPJ adopted recently in the hope that helping Aso clear his priorities would eventually pressure him into calling an election.
But now that the election is likely to be delayed, the DPJ is showing signs of returning to a more confrontational stance that would make it difficult for Aso to swiftly pass key proposals in the Diet, including a government bill to extend Japan's refueling mission in support of U.S.-led antiterrorism operations in and near Afghanistan beyond its expiry in January.
DPJ Diet affairs chief Kenji Yamaoka told reporters Tuesday that the DPJ will refuse to hold a vote on the refueling bill in the opposition-controlled upper house this month, saying, ''We will thoroughly deliberate necessary issues.''
Earlier in October, former Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura said that if Aso decides not to hold an election in November, it is also not likely to be held in December, as doing so could disrupt the year-end work of compiling the state budget for fiscal 2009 starting next April.
Machimura also referred to the possibility of an election being held in April after the state budget for the next fiscal year is enacted, or in September when the lower house members' terms run out.
But a delay in the election is likely to draw opposition from New Komeito, which has been calling for an early election as it wants more time to fully prepare for the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election to be held next summer.
New Komeito, which is backed by the major lay Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, has provided the LDP with a powerful vote-gathering machine in elections.
Tensions arose between the two parties in the closing days of the Fukuda administration, especially over differences in election strategy, prompting speculation that the discord had pressured Fukuda into deciding to step down.
Keio professor Masuyama said the current global financial crisis has served as a ''convincing reason'' for Aso to persuade New Komeito over not holding an early election, but friction ''could emerge'' if the election were to be delayed much further.
Despite the expected difficulties, Aso, also a manga comic enthusiast, appeared upbeat during a stump speech Sunday in Tokyo's Akihabara district, known as a magnet for anime and computer geeks.
''On diplomacy and the economy, Taro Aso is the most useful politician right now. That's my personal belief,'' he told a cheering crowd.
==Kyodo
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