The Yomiuri Shimbun
Monday night, the day after the Democratic Party of Japan-backed candidate was defeated in Akita Prefecture's gubernatorial election, DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa failed to appear before reporters.
On April 3, Katsumasa Suzuki, who heads a group of younger DPJ House of Representatives who have thrown their support behind Ozawa, visited his office in Akasaka, Tokyo.
The leader of the Isshin-kai group asked Ozawa: "When are you planning to resume your campaign tour to provincial areas? I think we need you to start touring again as soon as possible."
Ozawa was quoted as offering a frank response.
"The prosecution hasn't decided to officially announce it will end its investigation," Ozawa said in reference to a political fund scandal involving one of his close aides. "If I start stumping again, I'd have to start criticizing the prosecution again."
Ozawa and other DPJ executives have claimed the prosecution is politically motivated.
"Some people are advising me to sit tight for the time being, because resuming campaigning could make the prosecution dig their heels in...Once the probe is over, I'll hit the trail again," he said.
The Tokyo Regional Public Prosecutors Office's special investigation squad indicted Ozawa's state-paid first secretary on March 23 on charges of inappropriately receiving political funds from Nishimatsu Construction Co.
Having reportedly grown apprehensive about the way the investigation was developing, Ozawa has since refrained from engaging in any overt political activity.
Shortly before the indictment, some within the DPJ had called for Ozawa to voluntarily step down as party leader.
One friend was said to have advised Ozawa to quit, arguing that he should take into account that it is not just his political fate, but that of the whole party that is at stake.
Ozawa is said to have replied that he was well aware of the risks to the party, but that even if he was determined to step down, he would have to do it in a way that did not cause major problems for everyone involved.
After his secretary was indicted, Ozawa announced he was determined to continue to lead the party, a decision backed by other party executives.
Until this point, Ozawa is said to have frequently exchanged views with his aides. However, he stopped doing so after the announcement.
During his long political career, Ozawa has had a tendency when faced with critical decisions to make them on his own, without consulting others.
"I guess he's been sitting there on his own just thinking about whether he should stay on as leader until the next lower house election and how and whether he should quit," one aide said.
On the night of April 7, Ozawa was invited by seven midranking DPJ Diet members, including Masahiko Yamada, a lower house lawmaker, to dinner at a fish restaurant in the Komagata area in Asakusa, Tokyo.
Ozawa reportedly started the evening in high spirits with a mug of beer. But his expression is said to have darkened as he pondered the possible consequences of the political fund investigation.
"The Liberal Democratic Party is probably very happy with the way things have gone," he reportedly said. "They might decide it's best for them to have the lower house dissolved in May for a general election in June."
Ozawa likely feels time is running out for him to make a decision on whether to step down.
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Hatoyama's position in focus
More than three weeks after the indictment, DPJ lawmakers once bullish over their party's prospects of being elected to form a government now seem to be feeling a mixture of anticipation and anxiety over the lower house election, which must be held by this autumn when the term of current lower chamber members expires.
Against this backdrop, some senior DPJ members who have long been close allies of Ozawa have begun pondering whether it is possible for Ozawa to step down without hurting the party's image. The shift reflects growing concern over the party's prospects of winning a lower house majority in the next lower house race if Ozawa stays on as leader.
On March 26, one DPJ elder, former Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii, visited the home of former lower house Vice Speaker Kozo Watanabe, currently the party's supreme adviser.
Chatting over a cup of tea, Fujii expressed his unhappiness with the prosecution, with one source saying he described the way prosecutors had handled the case as "outrageous."
Fujii reportedly went on to cite the so-called Teijin case, which occurred before World War II, in which he said it took about four years for the truth to come to light.
The Teijin case was a major corporate graft case in the early Showa era (1926-1989) that eventually led to the collapse of the Cabinet of Prime Minister Makoto Saito in 1934.
The case involved alleged bribery through transactions of shares in Teijin Ltd., a leading textile company, in which a total of 16 Teijin executives, influential politicians and bureaucrats were indicted.
However, they were all found not guilty in 1937.
The prosecution came under fire for fabricating the case, as well as for supposedly "fascist tendencies."
"The political fund case [involving Ozawa's secretary] is probably going to hurt our party for at least a year or so," Fujii was quoted as saying. "So regardless, we're going to have to fight the coming election with public opinion drifting like it is now...We could end up with things going really badly at the next lower house election."
Fujii also reportedly raised concerns about DPJ Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama's stance on the issue. "He seems determined to have Ozawa stay in office until the end, I'm afraid," he was quoted as saying.
Watanabe is said to have remained mostly quiet during the meeting with Fujii, but also to have advised him that his own longstanding relationship with Hatoyama meant he could probably provide Fujii with a chance to speak with him.
Shortly after the Fujii-Watanabe meeting, Fujii received a phone call from Hatoyama, whom Watanabe had asked to contact Fujii personally.
During the conversation, Fujii is said to have reiterated his view that although Ozawa's secretary would undoubtedly be vindicated, any courtroom victory would not come before the next lower house election.
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Party's fate their responsibility
Hatoyama, meanwhile, called on Ozawa at the DPJ president's office on the afternoon of March 26.
During the talks, Hatoyama reportedly expressed his determination to do everything he could to ensure Ozawa stayed on as party leader, especially as he had heard from many within and outside the party that the case was winnable.
However, a source said, he added, "But if, despite our efforts, it seems we won't be able to seize power, then it should be the two of us that take responsibility, shouldn't it?"
According to sources, this was the first time Hatoyama had hinted at the possibility of Ozawa resigning as DPJ leader.
Ozawa is said to have told Hatoyama he understood the point he was making.
On a radio program Monday, Hatoyama said: "I've committed myself to sharing the same political fate as Mr. Ozawa. So if things go against us, I'd be forced to press him to step down, even if this would put my own political career at risk as I'd also have to quit as secretary general."
Commenting on Hatoyama's remarks, one midranking DPJ lawmaker said, "All party members know how determined Mr. Hatoyama is to shore up Mr. Ozawa's leadership and so they've lately kept quiet [about the possibility of Ozawa resigning]."
"But should the moment come that party members realize Ozawa has absolutely no intention of quitting of his own accord, there would be moves in the party seeking outright his resignation," the lawmaker said.
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An honorable resignation?
Fujii's suggestion that he wanted to see Ozawa resign has had far-reaching implications, even among senior DPJ lawmakers and close aides to Ozawa.
On March 30 there was a meeting between DPJ Vice President Hajime Ishii, House of Councillors Steering Committee Chairman Takeo Nishioka from the party, New Party Nippon leader Yasuo Tanaka and former DPJ upper house member Sadao Hirano, known as Ozawa's top thinker.
In the 90-minute meeting, the group reportedly reconfirmed their desire for Ozawa to stay on and reportedly discussed the advisability of summoning the public prosecutor general to the Diet to question him over the indictment of Ozawa's secretary.
Hirano also broached the subject of what the party should do in the event that Ozawa should choose to step down.
"At least for now, we should do our best to have Mr. Ozawa remain as leader," he was quoted as saying. "But in light of some of the stinging public criticism [over the political fund scandal], we should let Mr. Ozawa resign if he decides himself that it's the best thing to do."
No one apparently objected to Hirano's statement.
One of those present at the meeting said he thought Hirano's comments were aimed at giving Ozawa the chance of stepping down honorably, as a tragedy-hit politician.
"This would leave the impression [with the public] of an honorable withdrawal for the sake of realizing a change in power," he said.
Fujii, too, has recently been suggesting much the same to his allies.
"Even if Mr. Ozawa resigns as party head [before the next lower house race], he will only earn his place in history if the DPJ prevails," he was quoted as saying. "Should the party lose at the next election, his political career would be over, whether or not he stays on as party president."
Sixteen years have passed since Ozawa jumped ship from the LDP along with Watanabe, Fujii, Hirano and others. But as yet, there is no telling what Ozawa's place in history will be.
(Apr. 16, 2009)
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