Pressure increases against Fukuda

2008/7/31
THE ASAHI SHIMBUN

New Komeito had been relatively quiet while the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and opposition Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) sparred in the Diet.

But now, the junior coalition partner is making noise that could change the landscape of the political world. The party is demanding Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda either dissolve the Lower House at an early stage for a snap election or step down as the nation's leader.

"If Prime Minister Fukuda wants to dissolve the Lower House on his own, he should do it within this year," an influential New Komeito executive, who asked not to be identified, said Tuesday. "If he postpones the dissolution until next year, we will fight the election under the leadership of his successor."

An increasing number of LDP lawmakers have joined New Komeito's call.

But Fukuda, whose Cabinet still suffers from dismally low support ratings, has been against an early dissolution of the Lower House.

Pushed into a corner by lawmakers of the opposition bloc and now his own coalition, Fukuda apparently plans to reshuffle his Cabinet and the LDP leadership lineup in early August to hold onto his post.

This measure, however, might not be enough.

The focus of the expected reshuffle is whether Fukuda will make drastic changes, including appointing a new chief Cabinet secretary and an LDP secretary-general.

If the reshuffle is seen as only a stopgap measure, Fukuda will again face pressure from all sides.

New Komeito's push for an early election stems from another poll--the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election scheduled for late June or July next year.

Tokyo is the base for Soka Gakkai, a lay Buddhist organization that is the main support base for New Komeito. The party plans to fully mobilize Soka Gakkai members for the assembly election.

"We want to avoid a Lower House election in a three-month period around the metropolitan assembly election," a Soka Gakkai executive said.

A general election must be held in September next year at the latest when the four-year terms of current Lower House members expire. New Komeito would prefer the election be held before spring.

LDP lawmakers are siding with New Komeito because of the party's effective vote-gathering system.

In many parts of Japan, the LDP's support organizations have collapsed, and LDP candidates have increasingly relied on votes cast by Soka Gakkai members.

A top LDP executive expressed his view that the party could fight the next Lower House election under the leadership of Fukuda's successor.

"We should decide our party's face for the next Lower House election immediately before the election. It is not necessary to decide it now," he said.

But Fukuda is not without support in the LDP.

LDP Secretary-General Bunmei Ibuki and other officials are trying to contain the criticism against Fukuda.

The LDP leadership respects Fukuda's method of steadily putting priority on modest but important policies. Some say patience is needed.

"Fukuda is not known for his flashy performances. But if he produces results one by one, the support rate for his Cabinet will improve," an LDP executive said.

The LDP leadership predicts Fukuda will dissolve the Lower House after the Diet passes the budget for fiscal 2009 around March next year.

Whether Fukuda is still prime minister at that time could depend on how he handles the Cabinet reshuffle.

If he doesn't revamp his administration, his image as "a prime minister who cannot make decisions" will further strengthen.

And that could drive away more LDP lawmakers.

(IHT/Asahi: July 31,2008)