BY YOICHI KATO
ASAHI SHIMBUN SENIOR STAFF WRITER
2010/08/26
A ballistic missile under development in China for the purpose of deterring and attacking U.S. aircraft carriers in the western Pacific is close to becoming operational, according to Adm. Robert Willard, commander of U.S. Pacific Command.
Willard provided the assessment in a recent round table discussion with Japanese media in Tokyo.
The Pentagon, in its annual report on China's military, which was released last week, states, "China is developing an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) based on a variant of the CSS-5 medium-range ballistic missile (alternative name is DF-21)."
It also said, "The missile has a range in excess of 1,500 kilometers, is armed with a maneuverable warhead, and when integrated with appropriate command and control systems, is intended to provide the PLA (People's Liberation Army) with the capability to attack ships, including aircraft carriers, in the western Pacific Ocean."
The report also points out that the PLA Navy is improving its over-the-horizon (OTH) targeting capabilities with new radar systems to support long-range precision strikes, including those by ASBMs.
Asked how he perceives the current status of development, Willard said, "To our knowledge, it has undergone repeated tests and it is probably very close to being operational."
ASBMs are considered to be one of the main pillars of anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities that China has been developing to counter and/or neutralize America's vast power projection capabilities.
China's strategy is apparently centered on preventing U.S. carrier strike groups from intervening in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
For that purpose, Washington believes Beijing is trying to raise its military capabilities so that it can conduct precision strikes against land targets and naval ships, including aircraft carriers, operating far from China's shore. The area in question includes the so-called first island chain, which extends from the Japanese archipelago to Taiwan and the Philippines.
According to the Pentagon report, CSS-5-based ASBMs have a range of 1,500 to 2,000 km, which covers the area well beyond the first island chain. This means all Japanese territory could fall within its range.
Andrew Erickson, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College, and a leading authority on China's ASBMs, said other recent indications of China's progress in the development of ASBMs include the launch of multiple advanced surveillance satellites, which probably offer better coverage of critical areas along China's maritime periphery for targeting. Other U.S. experts suggest that the first ASBM launch sites may be under construction.
Erickson also writes, "If and when China's DF-21D is developed sufficiently, Beijing might reveal a dramatic weapon test to the world--with or without advance warning--in some way geared to influencing official and public opinion in the United States, Taiwan, Japan and elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific" (region). He also points out, "The fact of a hit, however manipulated and revealed, could change the strategic equation."
With regard to A2/AD capabilities of China, Willard said, "It is a concern not just for the United States, but for regional nations, that China has developed these capabilities."
However, he suggested the U.S. Navy has not felt restricted in the way it operates in this region.
"We have not allowed the development of these capabilities and capacities to deter our right to navigate in international waters in areas around China, nor do you want us to," Willard said. "The security in the region is dependent on the regional militaries' presence on the water and in the air, including the presence of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces in the region, to ensure that the sea lines of communication and air lines of communication are kept safe."
But what remains unclear is whether Washington has developed effective counter-measures to deal with this emerging challenge.
The U.S. Navy leadership has indicated it would make an additional investment in U.S. ability to conduct integrated air and missile defense.
Willard said China's creation of A2/AD capabilities had led to uncertainty. He emphasized the importance of strategic dialogue so that there are no misunderstandings.
"That's the dialogue that must occur between the United States and China and other regional partners in China, to understand why they're developing capabilities with that excessive reach," he said.
The military-to-military dialogue between the United States and China is currently suspended as a result of a U.S. decision to sell arms to Taiwan.
Erickson said in his recent presentation, "I do not think China is working to start a war here. Neither is the United States." He went on: "There is so much at stake here. Our two countries, as well as all the other countries in the region and around the world, have so much strategic interests to share. It would be really a shame if this (ASBM) will be allowed to spiral out of control."
He echoed Willard's call for the need to stress the importance of resuming military-to-military dialogue between the United States and China in this regard.
Posts
