Apr.28.2008 20:52TOKYO, April 28 KYODO
Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is seeing his administration reeling following his party's stinging defeat in Sunday's House of Representatives by-election, with his leadership in question and his hopes dashed for securing the latest popular mandate to survive this crucial period in his fight with the opposition parties.
Despite the strong public distrust shown in the election over current government policies, Fukuda fell short when asked on Monday if he will review an unpopular new health insurance system for the elderly. At the same time, he showed no willingness to compromise in his plan to restore gasoline and other road-related tax surcharges.
Fukuda's stance may further drag down his Cabinet approval rating, which has already fallen below the "danger" line of 30 percent in recent media polls, pundits say.
In the by-election held in Yamaguchi Prefecture's No.2 constituency, opposition Democratic Party of Japan candidate Hideo Hiraoka, 54, a former lower house member, defeated ruling Liberal Democratic Party candidate Shigetaro Yamamoto, 59, by a wide margin of more than 20,000 votes.
Admitting that it was "a complete defeat" for his LDP, Fukuda, who doubles as LDP president, told reporters on Monday, "I think we must recover from this (defeat) and steadily implement policies."
Government and ruling party members appeared to accept the outcome calmly, with a government source saying that he "was prepared" to face the defeat, while LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Sadakazu Tanigaki said Sunday, "It is important to unite and support the Fukuda Cabinet."
But voices have already emerged from within Fukuda's own turf that the by-election made clear that the bland 71-year-old prime minister cannot lead the LDP to win in the next crucial general election, which could possibly take place later in the year.
"We can't win unless we face the election with a new prime minister," said an LDP lawmaker elected in the 2005 general election, when the ruling coalition of the LDP and New Komeito party secured the powerful two-thirds majority it currently holds in the lower house under the popular then prime minister Junichiro Koizumi.
A local prefectural assembly member also criticized Fukuda's stump speech during the by-election campaign, saying that it sounded like he was "talking about somebody else's problem."
Although taking on a calm demeanor in front of reporters on Monday, Fukuda expressed his disappointment on Sunday night to LDP Secretary General Bummei Ibuki over the phone, saying "things don't seem to be going well," according to an LDP source.
"It's not your fault, Mr. Fukuda. You don't have to be concerned," Ibuki told him and Fukuda answered, "I've caused great trouble to you all," according to the source.
In the election, the DPJ apparently succeeded in its strategy to capture votes not only by calling for the complete abolishment of the road-related tax surcharges but by highlighting the negative aspects of a health insurance system for people aged 75 or older inaugurated April 1.
The system has triggered complaints and anger among the elderly over premium deductions from pension benefits and bureaucratic blunders.
On Monday, Fukuda said that he will "assess the reality" of the system. But when asked by reporters whether he will review it, he said, "It's too early to say so."
On the road tax, the ruling parties reaffirmed the same day their plan to resort to a revote in the lower house on Wednesday to win Diet approval of a tax code bill aimed at reinstating the tax surcharges.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura expressed hope that the government "can gain understanding from the public," but a government source said earlier that it is possible that "the Cabinet approval rating will further fall below the 20 percent line" following such a revote on Wednesday.
Wednesday is the earliest possible date for the ruling parties to take such a move in line with Constitutional provisions. Restoring the gasoline tax surcharge, about 25 yen per liter, will lead gasoline prices to rise and could trigger a public backlash when oil prices are already high.
Fukuda reiterated his stance that the failure to pass the bill would cause serious revenue shortfalls in state and local governments.
DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa told a press conference Monday that the DPJ will decide on whether to submit a censure resolution against the prime minister in the opposition-controlled House of Councillors on May 12 or later when the ruling parties may resort to another revote to pass another bill related to the road tax.
Apparently acting on the defensive, Machimura stressed Monday that a censure motion will not affect the management of the administration even if it is approved in the chamber.
"There will be no changes on our side regarding the deliberation process of the bills or their contents," the top government spokesman said.
The motion would be nonbinding, but it would nonetheless be another blow to the government. In 1998, then Defense Agency chief Fukushiro Nukaga was forced to resign about a month after the upper house approved a censure resolution against him.
While the DPJ is expected to step up pressure on Fukuda to make him call for a snap general election, Fukuda is unlikely to risk it for fear of losing the current comfortable majority in the lower house amid his sluggish support ratings.
A senior ruling party member said that the general election will come "as close as possible" to the end of the lower house's current four-year term in September 2009.
The government source did not rule out the possibility of Fukuda resigning or dissolving the lower house even before the July Group of Eight summit, which Fukuda is eager to chair, but at the same time indicated that the current political stalemate may continue.
"I really can't tell what the situation will be in autumn. But, to begin with, there is no one to replace Mr. Fukuda in the LDP. When there is no alternative, it may be difficult for anyone to move to topple the administration," the source said.
==Kyodo
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