Thursday, May 29, 2008By HUGH CORTAZZI
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda face a sea of troubles. Neither looks likely to keep his job long enough to make a significant contribution to solving the problems in Britain or in Japan.
When Brown succeeded Tony Blair last year as prime minister, much was expected of him. While some observers were not impressed by his record as finance minister, his supporters argued that he had brought Britain a decade of economic stability and prosperity. Though criticized as a dour bully with a clunking fist, at least he would be decisive and would not attempt to copy Blair by spinning away problems.
Unfortunately, while he seemed to start his stint as prime minister last summer dealing competently with unprecedented floods, he soon began to flounder and dither. First was the problem of the mortgage lender Northern Rock, which had to be rescued by the Bank of England at a considerable potential cost to taxpayers. This holed his reputation for economic competence.
Then, early last autumn — when Labour was still ahead in the opinion polls — he let it be known he was toying with the idea of calling an early general election. But he backed off and instead encouraged Alistair Darling, whom he had appointed finance minister, to adopt some opposition tax proposals. He failed to capitalize on these measures by fiddling around and complicating them.
Even more damaging was his handling of the abolition of the 10p (10 percent) tax band in order to lower the headline main rate of income tax from 22 percent to 20 percent. His government failed to recognize that the losers would include less well-off earners who formed one of the party's main supporting groups.
The Labour Party rebelled, and to buy off the rebels in the hope that it would save the party's candidate in an important by-election, the government produced an expensive set of temporary tax concessions. They lost the by-election and their fumbling lost them much popular support.
In foreign affairs Brown has tried hard to have it both ways. Not a fan of the European Union, he decided to go to Lisbon to sign the treaty but at a different time from other heads of government. At first it was rumored that he would go to Beijing for the opening of the Olympic Games, but when China's treatment of dissent in Tibet aroused popular concerns Brown said it had always been his intention of going to the closing ceremony. He received the Olympic flame in Downing Street, but let it be known that he had not touched it. He would not meet the Dalai Lama at Downing Street, but did so at Lambeth Palace, the residence of the Archbishop of Canterbury. The British media and public were not impressed.
There have been calls for Brown to resign, but there is no obvious successor and there are real doubts about whether a change of leader so soon after his takeover from Blair last year would help the Labour Party. Brown does not have to call an election until 2010. He blames his present problems on the American mortgage crisis and claims probably fairly that he cannot do anything about rising oil and food prices.
Like Charles Dickens' Mr. Micawber in "David Copperfield," he blames circumstances beyond his control and hopes something will turn up.
Fukuda took over from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe soon after Brown succeeded Blair. There was much hope that he would manage to save the Liberal Democratic Party from its own mistakes. He seemed to begin well with an improvement in relations with China, but it seems from abroad that it has been all downhill since last autumn.
The appointment of a new Bank of Japan governor was fumbled in ways that make Brown seem almost decisive. Having failed at his first try, Fukuda mishandled the second, reminding some of Lady Bracknell's comment in "The Importance of Being Earnest": "To lose one parent, Mr. Worthing, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness."
Fukuda has vowed to ensure that road-tax receipts will be allocated to general revenue. Yet his government has overridden the Upper House and forced through a bill to extend by 10 years the earmarking of road taxes for road construction, presumably to satisfy the road construction lobby in the Liberal Democratic Party.
It also appears that the necessary economic reforms, which former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi began, have been put on hold in deference to the lobbyists who care more about their selfish interests than those of the country as a whole. We suffered under Blair from what was termed "sofa government" because decisions were taken by a small coterie around the prime minister's sofa without proper records being kept.
It is reported that Fukuda likes to do government business via his mobile telephone. If true, this must make the jobs of civil servants a nightmare. Fukuda does not want to call an early election as he no doubt feels that the LDP would lose seats. The opposition party has few persuasive alternatives, but as in Britain the feeling that Japan needs a change must surely be growing.
Fukuda probably hopes, like Brown, that something will turn up. He also hopes that July's Group of Eight meeting in Hokkaido will boost his prestige. Perhaps, too, he believes that a Cabinet reshuffle will help him with the electorate. But the British experience is that reshuffles don't impress the public for long, if at all. As in Britain, there does not seem to be any obvious alternative leader in Japan who can successfully rally support for the government.
It is depressing that our two countries should both be stuck with such disappointing leaders.
Hugh Cortazzi, a former British career diplomat, served as ambassador to Japan from 1980 to 1984.
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