May 28 04:06 AM US/EasternUS Defense Secretary Robert Gates departs for Asia Wednesday for an annual security conference being held against the backdrop of massive natural disasters in China and Myanmar.
The Shangri-la Dialogue, which will bring top officials and experts from across the Asia-Pacific region to Singapore May 30-June 1, has been dominated in past years by US concerns over China's military buildup.
But the death of tens of thousands of people in an earthquake in China and a cyclone in Myanmar seem likely to highlight the need for greater regional cooperation.
While US doubts about China's intentions have not abated, Gates has taken a less confrontational approach toward Beijing than his predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld.
Gates recently cautioned the US military against "next-war-itis," arguing it is more likely to face irregular conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan than conventional wars with other "near peer" states.
At the same time, he has encouraged the US military to strengthen defense ties with regional powers like India and Indonesia as a hedge against China.
"Gates has a tough line to balance here. He needs to be clear that the US are conscious of these threats. He needs to press the Chinese to be transparent," said Michael Green, who served as Asian affairs director at the National Security Council from 2004-2005.
"But he doesn't want to provoke a confrontation with China at a time when the US is very busy in Iraq and China is very busy with earthquakes," he said.
The epic disasters exposed sharp divides, but also some signs of new thinking in the region.
Myanmar's ruling military junta has stubbornly resisted international offers of help, frustrating US officials who sought to pour in relief supplies from US warships off shore.
China, on the other hand, has welcomed foreign journalists and international relief supplies, creating opportunities for engagement.
In rare if not unprecedented moves, the US military flew in relief supplies aboard C-17 aircraft and provided the Chinese with satellite imagery of quake damaged infrastructure.
They followed other modest confidence-building steps between the two powers, including the establishment of the first telephone hotline between the US and Chinese defense ministries.
But senior US military commanders have stressed repeatedly over the past year that China has not done enough to put to rest concerns about its rapid military modernization.
An annual Pentagon report to Congress said China is developing the means to project military power and deny the US military access to the region, particularly in a conflict with Taiwan.
It cited China's development of cruise and ballistic missiles capable of striking US aircraft carriers and warships at sea, its test of anti-satellite weapons, the fielding of new intercontinental ballistic missiles, and a surge of cyber attacks on US computer networks apparently from within China.
A new port for nuclear missile submarines on Hainan Island gives it access to the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean and the sea lanes through the Strait of Malacca.
"It suggests for the first time a concrete interest by the Chinese in blue water power projection capabilities beyond just the access denial capabilities they wanted for Taiwan contingency," said Green.
"So the overall strategic picture with China is very mixed as it is with a lot of countries -- enormous economic interdependence but a level of strategic mistrust that won't go away," he said.
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