June 24 2010 18:11
TOKYO, June 24 KYODO
While an immediate change of government is not at stake in Japan's upcoming upper house election, the battle for seats in the House of Councillors could offer clues for the political outlook as previous elections for the chamber have done.
In the 242-member upper chamber, which is less powerful than the House of Representatives, 121 seats come up for reelection every three years. Some past elections for the chamber helped prime ministers to consolidate their power, while others heralded their departure.
The ruling Democratic Party of Japan will contest the July 11 election against a backdrop of relatively high public support for party president and Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who assumed office earlier this month after his predecessor Yukio Hatoyama stepped down to take responsibility for political confusion.
Kan's Cabinet enjoyed an approval rate of over 60 percent in a Kyodo News poll conducted right after its inauguration on June 8. The figure represented a considerable recovery from the less than 20 percent ratings for Hatoyama's Cabinet.
Kan, who was Hatoyama's deputy, is widely seen as having successfully distanced himself from the issues that dragged Hatoyama down, including the government's decision to relocate a key U.S. military base within Okinawa Prefecture despite calls from locals for it to be moved outside of the island prefecture.
Observers say Kan has also managed to minimize his exposure to funding scandals linked to Hatoyama and former DPJ Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa, who was forced to step down along with Hatoyama.
Putting on a new, cleaner face just before a national election is a tactic that many Japanese political parties have adopted.
In the 2001 upper house election, the then ruling Liberal Democratic Party won 64 seats led by Junichiro Koizumi, who had replaced the unpopular Yoshiro Mori as party president and prime minister. Koizumi established a strong basis for his rule that lasted about five and a half years, the third longest period in postwar Japan.
Prior to the start of official campaigning Thursday, Kan's DPJ controlled a majority in the upper house with the help of coalition partner the People's New Party and an independent lawmaker close to the DPJ. If their cooperation continues, the bloc will be able to retain control of the chamber by winning 56 seats in the upcoming election.
For the DPJ to secure an outright majority, it needs to win at least 60 seats.
But Kan does not hold all the cards. The new prime minister has announced that his government will take action to reform Japan's tax system with an eye to raising the sales tax rate, a universally unpopular policy among voters.
Japan introduced the 3-percent sales tax in April 1989, three months before an upper house election in which the LDP won only 36 seats. Prime Minister Sosuke Uno, whose reputation had been damaged by a sex scandal, stepped down after only 69 days in office.
Kan's inclination to raise the consumption tax rate from the current 5 percent reflects his sense of urgency about restoring the nation's fiscal health. Having served as finance minister in Hatoyama's Cabinet, Kan has expressed concern about Japan's vast public-sector debt amid the recent sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
Voter opposition to raising the sales tax is evident. The Cabinet's public support ratings fell below 60 percent after Kan's announcement.
If the DPJ-led ruling coalition loses its majority in the upper house, Kan is highly likely to face difficulties in managing Diet affairs.
Although his party controls a majority in the more powerful lower house, the ruling camp could be forced to make concessions on issues requiring the approval of both chambers, such as the appointment of Bank of Japan policymakers.
In the last upper house election in 2007, the then ruling coalition of the LDP and the New Komeito party lost control of the chamber and faced policy deadlock amid a divided Diet. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stepped down two months after the election, citing bad health.
The division, or ''twist'' as the Japanese call it, could trigger a political realignment in which the DPJ finds it necessary to reconfigure the ruling coalition. But analysts say such a possibility remains remote as the DPJ has pretty much dispelled the negative image of its former leaders.
If the DPJ under Kan wins 50 to 54 seats in next month's election, a major realignment will not occur, said Kazuhisa Kawakami, professor of politics at Meiji Gakuin University.
''A significant development would be expected in the event that the DPJ wins less than 40 (seats), and that might have occurred if the party was still headed by Mr. Hatoyama,'' Kawakami said. ''The chances for a major realignment appear to be getting slimmer,'' he said.
==Kyodo
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